A has-been nation is on the horizon

Posted on March 3, 2020 by skipper

First, a tidbit mariner learned about ‘deep state’ from an article in the Atlantic: A former Republican congressional aide named Mike Lofgren had introduced the phrase into the political bloodstream with an essay in 2014 and a book two years later. Lofgren meant the nexus of corporations, banks and defense contractors that had gained so much financial and political control—sources of Washington’s corruption. But conservatives at Breitbart News and Fox News redefined the term to mean internal resistance against conservative (Trumpian) leadership.

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A quote from Donald on November 23, 2017: “I’m The Only One That Matters.” Donald said Of State Department Job Vacancies.

Sixty percent of top-ranking diplomats in the State Department have left; applications to join the corps has fallen by half, according to the American Foreign Service Association.

Fifty top administrators in the Department of Justice have resigned.

More than 700 employees, and more than 200 of them scientists, have left the EPA since Trump took office and appointed Scott Pruitt, who denies human activity contributes to climate change and had repeatedly sued the agency, to run it.

Most of the electorate knows Donald would like to be a dictator along the lines of Putin where the government is genuinely authoritarian regardless of its government operations and embezzlement is the prize. Donald is a distasteful subject from any direction.

But the electorate must be made aware of how seriously vulnerable the United States has become in an age of internationalism that changes by the day. The sophistication of US government operations actually is a significant weapon in a world of battling nations. The US government is (was) the glue that held together most of the western world’s liaisons, international agreements and containment of aggressive nations like Russia and North Korea.

Donald has no interest in any subject that doesn’t generate personal income or aggrandizement. He doesn’t care about global warming because he is deeply invested in international oil to a greater extent than his war against the EPA – for which the entire nation will suffer dearly over the next thirty years. Another four years may well break the nation as a player among other nations. The US will be a has-been nation.

Ancient Mariner

A New Economic Model?

Posted on March 2, 2020 by skipper

Thrice mariner has come across the mention of something called ‘Modern Monetary Theory’ (MMT). He began to research MMT and found it to be in the philosophical realm of economics. The word ‘theory’ means it hasn’t really been tried in large economies. To be simplistic, it states the government owns all money. It uses the money to manage the economy. For example, if everyone doesn’t have a job, the government allocates funds to repair that situation; if inflation begins to rise, the government raises taxes to reduce money in the economy; if there is a market need, the government underwrites the establishment of a solution to satisfy that market.

As a real world example, as mariner writes this post the federal government is preparing to fund rapid development of 5G technology to remain competitive in a new world of scary data sharing. In communist China, this is occurring as well except that it is easier to launch because all industries are beholden to the government in the first place. In the US, a democracy, it is tougher for the federal government to manage private industry, to wit, the giant data tech corporations, especially Facebook which considers its corporation a separate nation.

Again simply, economic power and decision making are transferred from corporations to the government because all money belongs to the government. If a corporation is deviant from government policy, the government can invoke taxes and legal action. MMT is the opposite of corporatism.

MMT has crept into news resources because journalists have been trying to unravel Bernie’s logic behind his vision of the economic future. Turns out he knows Stephanie Kelton, an economics professor at Stony Brook University, who is a famous proponent of Modern Monetary Theory in the US.

Mike Bloomberg’s cable education program about MMT suggests that since Nixon took the US dollar off the gold standard, there is no good way to standardize a dollar’s value to the economy. MMT, in theory, says that if a government owns all money, then decisions can be made based on a universal market value determined by the government.

Being aware as everyone should be that the global economy is showing threadbare spots and wavering under any kind of issue, everyone should be asking “What will be the economic reality for my children?” Hah! Is everyone ready to go back to college? It should be free given the paucity of comprehension and leadership among our elected officials. One certainly needs more education to know how to run this democracy – television news isn’t the answer!

Ancient Mariner

Church

Posted on March 1, 2020 by skipper

Mariner had a conversation yesterday with a person of good mind and sound scruples. It started with the topic of Lent, which is upon us, but grew into a conversation about the contemporary Christian perception of ‘church’.

During Lent there are additional worship services, as there are for any special season in the liturgical calendar. Mariner challenged the role of the church today as a center for the promotion of what Jesus represented in the New Testament and what protestant founders like Martin Luther, John Wesley, John Smith and Jakob Amman perceived as the role of the church.

At the time of the Protestant Reformation, founders were adamant about submission to the spirit of God’s will. The central premise was to live life according to what God wanted rather than follow the will of false gods like wealth and self-aggrandizement. Mariner suggested that the modern church had lost its way; yielding to political authority (Pharisees), social gratification (pew Christians) and industrialized management of God’s will (name any protestant rule-setting authority).

Mariner proposed that the church, as a Christian entity, had the responsibility of evangelism, missions and social outreach – all of which are richly represented in the New Testament.

Mariner’s guest suggested that personal faith was more important than institutional (church) definitions; that the world today is not the world during Roman possession of Israel and not even the human reality of life during the Reformation. In essence, the guest was suggesting that morality and social responsibility is a condensation of the social psyche; the tools were sympathy, empathy and fairness.

Mariner suggested this was faith as a derivative of existentialism, that is, faith was a modernly equipped sailboat drifting with the weather rather than sailing with a rudder and predefined destination. The guest countered that at this moment in the twenty-first century there is no social destination, that morality is a response to a society in flux that has no traditional interpretation of social justice – let alone theological perceptions.

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A fascinating conversation for sure. The conclusion for mariner and the guest is that the traditional church of even one hundred years ago no longer exists. The doctrinal strength of Christianity does not meet the need of people in today’s topsy-turvy world. Even traditionalists who stand by the rituals of the church use the church for other reasons related to self-assuredness in a shifting society, a rule of thumb for responsible behavior in an existential world and even as a tool to joust with the political influences of government and as social standing in the community. This does not suggest that Christian responsibility is not practiced; togetherness, charity and authority as expressions of humanness are everywhere.

It is not an easy time in history to know what theologically-based faith requires. Is another reformation due?

Ancient Mariner

Classic American Soup: Election with Recession and a side of Pandemic

Posted on February 29, 2020 by skipper

Yesterday during South Carolina primary coverage, Tom Steyer closed his campaign for president. Two billionaires to go. (Mariner recognizes Donald as a billionaire for the amount of debt Russia is covering through Deutsch Bank. Okay, he’s a negative billionaire)

The United States elections, federal, state and local, are very much like the wild west: no rules, no law and order and money will win. The delegate method doesn’t eliminate candidates, lack of money does. Until this very day and forthwith, those without enough matching wealth will run out of financial support to sustain a competitive campaign across fifty states. The fact that three billionaires plus endless PAC support for them have so much money, they in effect are able to buy each and every vote to the tune of thousands of dollars each.

In the old days on many occasions, votes actually were bought for cash; now the television stations get the cash; the electorate, bless their soul, does what the television tells them to do.

Tom was the one billionaire who could feel empathy. He actually wants to make things better for the struggling masses yearning to survive. He is as classy as any of the candidates – but he is a billionaire. If the US is to sustain its great experiment as a nation, the citizens must play the role of the Board of Directors of the country – not allow the elite class to control things. That kind of government is called a plutocracy not a democracy.

So on to Super Tuesday. This round, like Steyer in South Carolina, has been targeted by Billionaire Bloomberg. It will be obvious on March third that commoners like Buttigieg and Klobuchar will have inadequate offenses to compete with Bloomberg. On the other hand, enough voters are involved that perhaps the role of Citizen Board of Directors may influence the contests. Let’s hope so – it’s time to settle the Bernie/Joe issue.

It is the democratic religion that whomever is nominated, be it human or a dead fish, every living democrat will appear at the voting booth to cast a vote against Donald. Mariner still contends that by the end of voting in Virgin Islands, Joe will draw more votes than Bernie. And to remind readers, Wisconsin plays a unique role in this election: the next President cannot win except that they carry Wisconsin.

As the title of the post suggests, this will be a one-of-a-kind election. Russia is helping; no one may be allowed to vote because of the pandemic and maybe can’t afford to anyway because of the recession.

Nevertheless, remember to vote on Tuesday, November third. Wear a mask.

Ancient Mariner

Of the Moment

Posted on February 28, 2020 by skipper

It is amazing how fast the economy slows down. The stock market drop is in the news, of course, but it is the retail industries that will take damaging if not fatal blows if the coronavirus spreads into communities. Restaurants, malls, movie houses, bars, big box stores, etc. all will suffer a drop in income as customers begin to curtail public exposure.

Miami public schools are investing in 200,000 tablets so that schools can switch to online classes. Mike Allan, a journalist at Axios, reminds us that children who depend on school meal programs will be vulnerable if schools close.

The virus is the headline story but it has added more burden to the world economic situation. For example, Japan and the European Union each had only one percent growth in 2019. The G20 now has a compounded issue because the virus will interfere with international manufacturing. Television news noted that Apple, maker of the iPhone, already is behind in production because China has shut down factories.

And, on a long term economic issue, as salaries remain flat housing and rental prices continue to climb and many utilities are increasing the price of service by 20-25 percent. There are very few programs that support those who can no longer afford to pay water, electric and fuel bills. Only a handful of local jurisdictions have legislation that prevents utilities from stopping services on delinquent customers.

Mariner takes note that lack of confidence in Donald’s decision-making process was a concern should he start a war. It turns out he is just as incompetent managing a pandemic. Mariner has suggested in past posts that those running for public office must pass a psychological profile exam. Dictators and narcissists need not apply.

For the few among us who have play money, the cash pouring into our ‘democratic’ political system grows astronomically as three billionaires compete for the presidency. Citizens may have noticed that the candidates with more or less normal wealth are being squeezed out of the race. Mariner sees no candidate capable of tackling the immense issues of today’s world. The choice is which one will do the least damage. Unfortunately, no matter who wins it won’t make any difference if last-century republicans still hold the Senate.

At least issues of the moment have given everyone a break from thinking about global warming, artificial intelligence and government corruption.

Cheer up, in mariner’s town this Sunday it will be 65 degrees and sunny. Spring is nigh, folks.

Ancient Mariner

About Fingers

Posted on February 25, 2020 by skipper

When mariner was a small boy, he had a conversation with his father. Mariner asked him how evolution worked. His father said that evolution was slow and that Nature had a way of always trying to make the body work better. He suggested that, in a zillion years, humans would have only three fingers on each hand because the ring and little finger weren’t used very often. Humans pick up things only with the thumb, forefinger and middle finger. He said that even when we grab something like a jar to open its lid, it’s the middle finger and thumb that do all the work.

Ever since, mariner has watched his fingers work with that thought in mind. It is true that in most circumstances we use only the thumb and two fingers. Of course there are many functions that use the entire hand – typing for example, or making a fist, or holding a wet, wriggly fish. Statistically though, the three fingers get the most action.

Mariner was reminded of this conversation recently when he watched a documentary about the many different cousins humans have in the primate branch of evolution. The Aye-Aye, a small nocturnal creature, has a middle finger that looks like a stick; it is much longer than the other fingers. It is a specialized trick of evolution that gave the Aye-Aye a tool to reach small insects under tree bark.

Mariner is sorry that his father didn’t live long enough to experience smartphones. There’s a good chance in the future that the human hand will merge together the last three fingers into one large pad-like finger. Only the thumb and forefinger will keep knuckles.

Ancient Mariner

Trends

Posted on February 23, 2020 by skipper

Gathering meaningful, real, honest information via Trump television is virtually impossible. A few news outlets, most are on the Internet, go to great lengths to report untainted news and news that is actually important; the only two television news outlets mariner can recommend are NEWSY and BBC, found on cable and Roku among several other sources.

Nevertheless, the world marches on and important trends are at stake in the coming months. Here are just a few:

֎ Roe v. Wade may be nearing the end of its influence. Justice Kennedy has retired and Justice Kavanaugh has replaced him. A significant abortion challenge will be heard by the court in a few weeks (June Medical Services v. Russo). Further, 39 senators and 168 representatives from 38 states are represented by counsel at Americans United for Life, a “life-affirming” law and policy nonprofit. They think the high court should overrule the landmark 1973 case Roe v. Wade.

֎ Global recession is imminent in 2020. The potential for a recession is the main topic at a forthcoming G20 meeting. The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) which is one of the world’s largest banking and financial services organizations has cut its global growth forecast from 2.5 to 2.3. Further, MIT says a major downturn could be only six months away. That means it could hit before the U.S. presidential election.

֎ As important as defeating Donald may be, the nation can’t begin repairing itself until the republican Senate is overturned. In the coming election, 22 republican senators must run for reelection. At the moment, the following States have republican US Senate seats open:

Tom Cotton of Arkansas

Cory Gardner of Colorado

David Perdue of Georgia

James Risch of Idaho

Joni Ernst of Iowa

Pat Roberts of Kansas

Mitch McConnell of Kentucky

Bill Cassidy of Louisiana

Susan Collins of Maine

Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi

Steve Daines of Montana

Ben Sasse of Nebraska

Thom Tillis of North Carolina

James Inhofe of Oklahoma

Lindsey Graham of South Carolina

Mike Rounds of South Dakota

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

John Cornyn of Texas

Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia

Michael Enzi of Wyoming

If the reader lives in a state on this list, that is important news to follow – almost as important as the Presidential election! Check local news outlets, communicate with party representatives.

֎ Another nation in South America joins violent rebellion along with Venezuela, Columbia and Brazil: Chile. Mariner has mentioned concern about losing South America as a grand, joint economic future for North and South America. In fact, economically the two continents could outperform China’s Belt and Road plan. However, Russia has a quasi-permanent toehold in Venezuela and China is an active Free Trade partner with Chile. While South America may not be a domestic headline, its future is linked to the future of the United States. Foreign policy with the Caribbean (even Puerto Rico) and South America has been dismal and self-serving. At the least, the US should be nice to avoid Russian nuclear weapons on the continent. Does the reader remember the Cuban missile crisis during the Kennedy administration? Well, they’re back . . . in Venezuela.

Ancient Mariner

Is the nuclear family an ideal culture?

Posted on February 22, 2020 by skipper

“If you want to summarize the changes in family structure over the past century, the truest thing to say is this: We’ve made life freer for individuals and more unstable for families. We’ve made life better for adults but worse for children. We’ve moved from big, interconnected, and extended families, which helped protect the most vulnerable people in society from the shocks of life, to smaller, detached nuclear families (a married couple and their children), which give the most privileged people in society room to maximize their talents and expand their options. The shift from bigger and interconnected extended families to smaller and detached nuclear families ultimately led to a familial system that liberates the rich and ravages the working-class and the poor.” [Excerpt from David Brooks article, The Atlantic Magazine, March 2020]

When mariner worked in Taiwan he noticed that a large number of businesses were run by families. In fact, the government encouraged single tier businesses – the opposite of American mergers and vertical expansion. It was not an issue when a cousin or other relative was accepted into the family business.

The common class in Taiwan at the time did not present to mariner a class that had extra cash. Owning an automobile was exceptional; with very few exceptions, restaurants were simple storefronts with a few tables put on the sidewalk each day; the buildings themselves were minimal, hardly more than a car garage. Major shopping areas crowded under large, open-sided roofs. Mariner once shopped for houseplants from an older couple set up under a larger building’s Sun canopy; their merchandise was very nice specimens that numbered less than two dozen pots.

Having read David Brooks’ article, mariner has a new insight why the culture, the neighborhoods, the businesses appeared almost cash starved. In hindsight, the culture seemed stable, even content; large families were often seen crowding the narrow residential side streets in Tainan, one of Taiwan’s larger cities. The payoff to Taiwan families was that a family business was able to support three generations, often laterally across family branches. Mariner doesn’t remember seeing any nursing homes or retirement homes. The family provided these services.

Interestingly, Taiwan at the time had the seventh largest investment holdings among the world’s nations. These investments, at the root, were the savings of the family businesses. Insurance was too expensive; flamboyant entertainment (for citizens) was too expensive. The happiness of life existed within the large families.

David points to virtually the same cultural picture in the United States in the early 1800s. 75 percent of work was on farms; it took large families to run a small farm efficiently. In both situations, Taiwan and the US in 1800, cash was not a central device for local commerce; it was labor, trade and self-sustained security against life’s surprises.

The history of the US moving forward from 1800 is one of increasing cash as a way to leverage relatively expensive needs in the marketplace. Vertical corporate models easily monopolize cash flow over large segments of life. Large corporations capture more and more control of public life requiring more and more cash to be available for a small family to guarantee functions like schooling, health and retirement. In the US culture, trading for services is virtually unheard of.

Is the nuclear family, locked into a cash for services economy, beneficial?

Ancient Mariner

Nationalism under 5G

Posted on February 20, 2020 by skipper

5G?

Fifth-generation wireless (5G) is the latest iteration of cellular technology, engineered to greatly increase the speed and responsiveness of wireless networks. With 5G, data transmitted over wireless broadband connections can travel at multigigabit speeds, with potential peak speeds as high as 20 gigabits per second (Gbps) by some estimates. These speeds exceed wireline network speeds and offer latency of 1 millisecond (ms) or lower for uses that require real-time feedback. 5G will also enable a sharp increase in the amount of data transmitted over wireless systems due to more available bandwidth and advanced antenna technology.

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A big conference will be held in Germany soon. Its primary speakers are the foreign ministers of China, Japan, India and South Korea. There is concern in Europe that the nations of Europe will never have 5G independence. Germany’s cybersecurity chief struck a pessimistic tone at a pre-Munich cyber conference: “If you talk about digital sovereignty, we don’t have it. And we’ll never have it.” There will be presentations by Pelosi, Pompeo and Zuckerberg as well. [Politico]

The idea of sovereignty may undergo significant political transformation if, as feared, whole nations are just uplinks to a few communication systems owned and operated by a few nations like China and the US. National privacy, very much like personal privacy, may not be available. In the old days the spy business used to be a face-to-face transaction but with China manufacturing its technical equipment and the US eavesdropping, no nation will have secrets.

The US already is pushing back on China for a number of manufactured items used in smartphones and cloud-based games. The US asked the European Union not to install Huawei hardware but, said the EU, what else is there? The US is behind China in 5G development.

Nations, just as with a person’s decision making, will be influenced by 5G operators who already know what the target nation is thinking, what its economic conditions are and where its vulnerabilities lie. What will this do to traditional diplomatic relationships? Will a robot wearing suit and tie replace Pompeo?

A current model may provide insight. At the turn of the millennium there were 12 significant stock exchanges around the world. The differences in time zone meant that transactional business for a given stock exchange was local and finished before other stock exchanges opened. Today, that is not the case. An investor can issue trades to any exchange in the world at any time of day. An investor doesn’t have to miss daily opportunities that would be gone had the investor had to wait until the exchange opened for business the next day.

Continuous access has the effect of leveling the monetary value of daily interactions between exchanges. It also reduces the range of highs and lows relative to other exchanges.

Applying these causes and effects to nations using 5G, the positive side may be the prevention of surprises that lead to political or military conflict. The downside may be a new form of authoritarianism – similar to the direction AI is taking with US citizens.

Ancient Mariner