Category Archives: Economy

Chicken Little moved to hospice

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Afraid so. It is true that evolution is the dynamic element in all the universe – including galaxies, solar systems, life of every kind and certainly every conceivable element of existence – including the planet Earth itself – is subject to change over time. So, too, fantasy and whimsy move on as reality paves a new future.

What was important about Chicken Little’s presence was his belief that it was possible for things to behave as expected – it was just a matter of adjusting a bit to keep reality chugging along. Like the Chicken Little of children’s storybook fame, he often overreacted to what others felt was not so important as to warrant hysterical behavior.

The belief in adjusting has faded as all the world’s activity is in disarray. Human history has become a demolition derby where every conceivable idea is an effort to dismantle rational, logical behavior. Mariner, like Chicken Little, is acutely aware of the abrasion of industrial development against the evolutionary limitations not only of Homo sapiens but all of the planet’s life forms. Homo’s dangerous ability to imagine things that do not exist has been the fire that has set off an Armageddon. For casual readers who may not be familiar, mariner’s examples are any industrial development requiring chemical, environmental or any other destruction of the biosphere. For example, internal combustion engines, killing millions of species for greedy reasons, leveling quantum amounts of forest for commercial purposes, forcing every biological behavior of every species to compensate or die, etc. The result today is, of course, a destabilized, biospheric condition humans call ‘global warming’ which is most commonly observed as changes in the climate.

So mariner is interviewing several applicants to replace Chicken Little. An applicant that has caught mariner’s eye is the squirrel – especially urban squirrels. Squirrels already know that Homo sappians is a destructive creature, said and done. What concerns mariner is that the squirrel already has a bit of skepticism about it’s obsessive neighbors; Amos, another alter ego, already has more than enough skepticism.

Perhaps this is all a sign that mariner is growing old. He’s old enough to be receiving social security but young enough to see it disappear. His brain has been throwing out to trash memories that aren’t relevant anymore. Sadly, he cannot forget Lawrence Welk or Hyacinth Bucket on the British series, Keeping Up Appearances.

Suggestions for a new icon to replace Chicken Little are welcome – an icon that has come to accept Homo sappians as the failure it is but with an innocence that there is a looming Armageddon.

Ancient Mariner

Liberal Arts – the Military Academy of cultural mandates

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Mariner loves metaphors. One came to mind as he pondered the last post on college education: 40% of the nation’s young people went to college. Perhaps 95% of these students studied the same textbooks and learned the same interpretation of democracy, philosophy and history. The movie ‘Matrix’ couldn’t have done it better!

Let’s test this militaristic march to a common but separate culture for college students. Let’s try some passwords to validate membership: ‘William Faulkner’, ‘Plato’, ‘Pythagoras’, ‘Samuel Taylor Coleridge’, ‘Alan Turing’, ‘Joseph Campbell’, ‘Euclid’, ‘Adam Smith’, ‘Milton Friedman’, ‘David Halberstam’. . . The reader gets the point. 40% of US citizens have an identical, if exclusive, understanding of what the values are for the American culture.

Could it be helped that colleges created a national identity that was quite exclusive in its requirements for citizenship? Somewhere along the line ‘all men are created equal’ fell by the roadside and was replaced by ‘college students know what is right’. The opinion exists that colleges stopped providing a right to education, replacing it with a right to pay to join the club.

Is this militaristic approach to education why plutocrats have attacked both labor unions and liberal arts?

Do enough wealthy citizens exist to reinvent the mores of student life? John Adams would be proud.

Is this why colleges are dropping liberal arts and creating a new syllabus called STEM (Science, technology, engineering and mathematics)? – a strategy that can end up only  in partnership with corporations and government – socializing the citizenry be damned.

All this bouncing about, along with GPT and climate change, makes it hard for Guru to speculate the future.

Ancient Mariner

Bachelor’s degree

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One of the societal areas most affected by cultural bias and economics over the last forty years has been the prejudice associated with having a college bachelor’s degree. In a period when US inflation rose 283%, college tuition rose 1,213%. Of a personal note, mariner paid $1,000 tuition plus the cost of books for one year back in 1964; today, that year would cost him an average of $14,000 plus several fees. Further, it is a common sociological opinion that citizens without college degrees have been devalued in the value of their participation in US society. It is a common opinion among sociology professors that this devaluation is the cause for MAGA to evolve. Atlantic magazine had a recent article about this college-related phenomenon:

“Nearly 60 percent of adults ages 25 to 29 do not have a bachelor’s degree. If they have the skills to do a certain job, why should they be denied the chance solely because they lack a somewhat arbitrary paper credential?

And yet, despite its popularity, skills-based hiring (degree not needed) is a dead-end policy. If every employer in America formally stopped requiring a four-year college degree for every available position as of tomorrow, nothing much would change. Indeed, companies such as Walmart, Apple, and many others have proudly touted their removal of degree requirements in job postings, but the net effect on hiring has been very small. A recent Harvard Business School study found that when companies remove degree requirements, the share of hires with a bachelor’s degree declines by only two percentage points. Employers may not insist on a college degree, but they still prefer it.”

Mariner has chosen the term ‘white collar class’ to identify the prejudice that excludes non-degree citizens and discounts their social value. At the end of the Second World War, the Federal government saw to it that everyone had a chance to go to college; cost was heavily cut. The democratic party was the primary beneficiary to this social shift but, over the years as the advantages of and the cost needed for college-based income continued to rise, labor income did not. Today, the ‘labor’ party is infected with white collar disease (Woke) – just ask any misguided MAGA individual.

This could be an issue resolved on a level playing field except for the introduction of GPT – Generative (self-producing) Pre-trained (copycat) Transformer (can change input into a different self-determined output)¹ – A human-like ability to translate, interpret and create information without human intervention.

One can imagine the impact on an education system rooted in behavioral and textbook communication. The saying “Who needs a teacher when we have GPT?” already is a common euphemism on social media. It is a simple extension to say “Who needs departments of education?” Will ‘education’ be simple training programs used by employers targeted on corporate/government efficiency? Already, liberal arts education is disappearing as colleges are faced with the automation dilemma.

 

It is still rare but there are pre-school educators who use tabletop robots to help with behavioral education.

Mariner has no crystal with which to interpret the future of education. It is important at the least to understand how integrated and influenced education is by society. Citizens today should clearly understand the cause and effect of white collar and GPT as imbalances in cultural unity.

Ancient Mariner

PS – Mariner is having trouble with new post notices. Scroll down on the home page to see if the reader has missed any posts.

FOOTNOTE

¹GPT2 – GPT-2 was designed specifically to predict and generate the next sequence of text to follow a given sentence without human interference or knowledge of sources.

GPT3 – a sizable step up from its predecessor. It includes texts such as Wikipedia entries as well as the open-source data set Common Crawl. Notably, GPT-3 can generate computer code and improve performance in niche areas of content creation such as storytelling, aka inventing its own reality.

GPT4 – a large multimodal model (LMM), meaning it’s capable of parsing image inputs as well as text. This iteration is the most advanced GPT model, exhibiting human-level performance across a variety of benchmarks in the professional and academic realm. For comparison, GPT-3.5 scored in the bottom 10 percent of test-takers in a simulated bar exam. GPT-4 scored in the top 10 percent.

November 5 2024

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That is the date of the upcoming election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Trump has made it crystal clear that there will be an honest election only if he wins.  He promises chaos if he doesn’t win. Citizens of the US must take note – this isn’t just inflammatory banter. Citizen groups already are developing plans for combat if Trump loses.

Nevertheless, every citizen must exercise their right to vote.

* * * * *

Mariner has written 1,835 posts. Many topics were covered in every field of interest from nonsense to serious essays. With certainty he knows often he has been redundant, skeptical and overly critical on many political and societal occasions.

In recent posts he has expressed a fatalistic prognosis for the future of Homo sapiens and many fellow creatures. Even these comments have become redundant. He sat down with Guru to have a last effort at defining order in the humanly perceived universe and the cacophony of noise that clouds that order.

Guru made it clear that mariner must describe the structure of authority as it relates to the Homo universe:

Planet Earth is 4.5 Billion years old. It abides by the rules imposed upon it as a member of a vast, disciplined Universe. Accordingly, Earth has seasons, is accountable to the influence of a moon, and must accommodate the behavior of a close star, the Sun. Given these influences, the Earth is in charge of all that occurs on, in, and above its sphere. This includes non-living material and all, all living creatures.

Egocentric Homo thinks it has the ability to ignore Earth’s management of the planet’s existence. This is the largest source of cacophony since Hominidae Ardipithecus came on the scene 5.3 million years ago. A large amount of today’s noise would not have occurred if Homo had acknowledged Earth’s authority. Consequently, Homo finds itself in the following circumstances:

Stealing oil, forests, several chemicals and gases and a disregard for social disciplines required by evolution, Earth has been thrown off balance and has no choice but to adjust. The planet’s adjustment has paid for the thievery of Homo by sending tens of thousands of species to extinction and re-balancing the global ecosystem, AKA climate change.

Using various methods of chemistry and artificial environment, Homo has doubled the lifespan of a largely unchanged genome. The result is a much larger population of Homo than Earth had planned for. As the twenty-first century begins, natural resources are short which leads to an unsettled fear for the future which leads to stress in Homo economic practices.

Finally, Homo has discovered an artificial way to create life forms. Recently, computer applications have become capable of reproducing chromosomes, AKA remaking electrically controlled genomes. It is too early to predict the ramifications but the movie “Matrix” can’t be too far off.

What lies beneath the cacophony and conflict? The original Homo. For the time being (perhaps another 100+ years), the only safe ground is to behave like a normal Homo sapiens. Individuals must place social interaction and tribal sympathy foremost in their daily lives. Although it may be too late, Homo should pay retribution to Earth’s ways by showing respect and following nature’s rules.

Ancient Mariner

Beware the Eye of Sauron

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An icon from J.R. R. Tolkien’s ‘The Lord of the Rings’, The Eye is constantly watching for an opportunity to strike evil in the world. Tolkien references Sauron as the most complete evil. Throughout many of Tolkien’s stories, Sauron, by many names, is the evil power that wishes to control all of Middle Earth.

The manner by which Sauron attempts to intercede in Middle Earth society is surreptitious. Sauron seeks to undermine truth with malicious myths; he seeks to disrupt achievement with abusive intent; he provokes war and conflict by any means. Eventually, if his tactics prevail, he will reign as the evil dictator of all Middle Earth.

Who has the power to make today’s reality exist according to the plot of The Lord of the Rings? Is it Sauron himself? Is he, in fact, real? There are surreptitious examples:

AI displacing human behavior.

MAGA, a movement driven by myth.

Plutocracy, an economic ploy to suck the life out of human equality.

Twenty active wars around the globe with some very large wars waiting in the wings.

A myriad of destructive prejudices preventing humanity from a smooth, collaborative world.

COVID

Unsustainable relationship between humans and sufficient food in the biosphere.

Increasingly rapid extinction of tens of thousands of creatures in the environment.

Sauron is good at what he does. Mariner is thinking about moving back to Chicken Little’s henhouse.

Ancient Mariner

 

Beyond the Glory of America

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Officially, mariner has returned home from Chicken Little’s hen house. He did watch the democratic convention. News is show biz. The actual participants in the convention, however, really put on a professional Broadway show. So the race is about to start: 74 days to election day. One’s vote is just like buying a lottery ticket or a ticket to a Taylor Swift show.

Less acute as an issue but a great deal more impactful is recent news from environmental scientists. They have begun to provide comparatively more accurate timelines about global warming. Speaking very generally, the planet will be a different planet by the end of the century.

One factor is melting polar ice. He just read that they are melting faster each year. If they melt at their present increasing rate, scientists predict a rise of as much as 50 feet in ocean level by 2100. As the years pass, anyone living near the Tropical Zone (between Tropic of Cancer in the north  (23°26′ N) and the Tropic of Capricorn in the south ( 23°26′ S.) will experience a significant increase in temperatures and storms. In terms of the U.S, Phoenix is just 486 miles above the Tropical Zone at 32º18′, Brownsville Texas just 162 miles above at 26º10′ and Florida just 54 miles at 24º49′.

Global warming is an economic issue. Already the United States has had to spend an extra 11 billion on this phenomenon. Add to that overhead the same circumstances in other nations around the world – from Haiti to China.

Whether Donald or Kamala, they will be forced to address this issue in addition to all the economic political arguments we expect to hear.

Ancient Mariner

Forget search engines

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Mariner recently read an account of the next phase in AI: Merging corporate data with personal data taken from one’s own computer or smartphone. It is an attempt to “read the interests of the user” in order to provide an instant integration between user interest and what’s related in the cloud. Today’s search engines won’t be needed. The intent is that the cloud and the user are one unified operation. Microsoft will keep its own copy of all files, websites, everything executed on a person’s private computer.

It is fascinating to read arguments from both sides of this objective. AI folks see this progress as a great service to the user; privacy advocates see this progress as not only an invasion of privacy but more broadly see a future where society is managed to the extent that an individual’s ability to reason unique personal solutions for a ‘real’ world doesn’t exist.

When humans aren’t allowed to see genuine reality, their control of reality disappears. Historically, this is the complaint about dictatorships because the dictator determines what matters. Mariner’s oft-cited movies, 1984 and Matrix, are about the loss of individuality because AI dictators say what is real.

Already a person’s budget, housing and other accessories are limited to what is seen on a screen ad page. Could there be other options? Even the banking industry is offering to manage your cash for you – don’t need checkbook records anymore; it is possible to be in debt and not know it.

Mariner knows he is peeing in the ocean. There is no government, no culture, no enterprise that can avoid the move toward replacing one’s individuality with the pseudo compassion of Amazon as to what’s the best deal. In fact, medical science has already made artificial brain parts. Be wary if someone suggests installing a receptacle in your neck; your brain will know only what’s on your smartphone.

Armageddon progresses.

Ancient Mariner

 

Where will you move?

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Mariner feels compelled to address the immigration issue. Amid all the other pressures in a rapidly changing society and a rapidly changing planet, immigration serves as the most dependable barometer of progress or failure. How Homo handles immigration will tell the world whether humans are up to the task of surviving in the new biosphere.

Humans are accustomed to tracking history by the occurrence of wars. It took over 300 years of savage fighting for the Vikings and British to settle their differences; it signaled a transition from tribal government to monarchy. It brings to mind the current war between Islamic theocracies in the middle East and Jesus-oriented nations. It took about 1,000 years and innumerable wars to move from Roman theocracy to a separation of church and state. It took four wars in the 1850’s and two world wars in the 1900’s to move from economic colonialism to independent national economies.

Measuring history and the future by wars is more like taking taking one’s temperature at the moment rather than measuring progress over time. Immigration management is not a war as such but rather a timeline depicting how humans adapt to the pressures of a changing world.

Migration is an intrinsic behavior, not a war. It’s been around since Homo habilis left Africa more than 60,000 years ago. While on the subject, when was the last time the reader moved, AKA migrated? There is a distinct difference between an act to dominate and an act to survive.

So do not succumb to the current belligerent attitude about immigration; society will be measured by it’s methods of accommodation, not how high the fence is.  Immigration is just beginning to rise at unusually high rates. To some degree, one can fault incompetent dictatorships – how does one build a high fence around a dictator?

More significantly, the changing climate will cause many nations to fail because of economic and habitable failure – yes, even Florida.

Beneath it all is a slow, painful transition from capitalist society to socialist society. Not that capitalism will disappear, just that saving as many people as possible from inhabitable lives will require more distributive philosophies of government.

Ancient Mariner

 

Define Armageddon . . .

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Oh my! Mariner has been challenged to define his vague threat of Armageddon. That would be like describing life in Hell – not fun, not positive, not provable. A short list of variations is provided without comment. He adds an Apocalypse at the end. The difference between Armageddon and Apocalypse is that Armageddon is a violent end with no survivors whereas an Apocalypse has survivors.

֎ Most imminent would be nuclear war, given the activities of Russia, North Korea and Iran, not to mention the backers of war, China and the US.

֎ Government would yield to oligarchical economies reminiscent of the early Persian Empire or the frequent beheading by the Mayan culture. Several African nations already deal with this issue.

֎ Worldwide collapse of economics due to global warming – both the restorative cost and the great reduction of natural resources. This Armageddon already has begun and will be much more expensive as weather and sinking cities trash government budgets and natural resources drop to unsustainable levels.

֎ Most distant would be the usurpation of the human species by electronic intelligence.

֎ An Apocalypse would be the aforementioned economic collapse and associated violence of nation-based economies but a resurrection to a global economy that assured participation in cooperative supply chains that bind countries to a common economy. Nationalism would be minimized.

One must not forget that the planet is the biggest player. At the end, one wonders how many humans will be around.

Ancient Mariner

 

The fluid state of Education

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Mariner mentioned in a recent post that several institutions in the United States are in worse shape than they may seem. One was education. Just very briefly and broadly, education has shifted as social change has shifted: In the pre-industrial age, education was all about local training and learning financial and writing skills commensurate with local need. General primary education was sparsely represented and was charged with basic reading and writing skills; in rural areas, average dropout by students was the fourth grade.

The second half of the 1800s had a burst of industrial, chemical and electrical discoveries that called for higher language and communication skills – each requiring more ability via writing and speaking; in the middle of this period, student grading was introduced to public education and became the norm – some history and social science were added.

By the early 1900s, large urbanization and competitive businesses were setting knowledge standards for employment – more education with better grades became a workforce standard for getting ahead and earning more. Colleges began to be an option for the general population, no longer limited to the elite and one-off intellectuals.

By the end of WWII (1944), the government had become strongly democratic and sponsored educational activity at all levels. Public schooling grew rapidly; a notable shift in extended education arose as military service offered free college. This broad financial boost to college education, available to virtually anyone, was the beginning of the ‘white collar’ social class. All education, from first grade to college graduate, was well funded and easily attainable – expected for anyone not in labor or service careers.

Until the political parties switched many of their social commitments in the 1960s when Lyndon Johnson pushed through civil rights legislation and Dixie went red, education was under the blessing of the democratic (AKA white collar) party and remained stable.

But a rough economic era since the 1970s (chart) and three destructive recessions in 1973, 1983 and 2007 have disrupted discretionary funding, including health and tax fairness as well.

A definite beneficiary of the government’s financial support was the colleges themselves, who raised tuition. In 1980, the price to attend a four-year college full-time was $10,231 annually – including tuition, fees, room and board, and adjusted for inflation – according to the National Center for Education Statistics. By 2019-20, the total price increased to $28,775. That’s a 180% increase.

National politics are shifting back to lower income social classes. There are many reasons for education to be wary: weaponized political parties, weaponized religious denominations, and huge, life changing historical college debt, social media, ChatGTP, all of which leave education in a collapsed state. Public schools are dominated by closed-minded school boards; college applicants are demanding low tuition and guaranteed jobs at graduation – a demand that has allowed corporations to begin funding education.

Perhaps the shifts in education are a clear example of what’s happening everywhere in these disruptive times. The education dilemma also shows the complex, interwoven influences across life’s processes in government, industry and society. We cannot solve education independently – many frontiers must be solved at the same time.

Ancient Mariner