The final nomination for president is growing close. Virtually all the democratic literature flowing profusely into citizens’ mailboxes make the case for each candidate based on differences in policy or what ‘lane’ the candidates are in; race and age are tossed about. The Democratic Party has a way of defeating itself as presidential campaigns enter later stages of the process. There is a tendency toward this because the Democratic Party is a true umbrella party with many facets of the political spectrum represented.
Ever heard the phrase ‘herding cats’? Mariner thinks it may be time to shape the battleground rather than chase cats. True, with so many candidates, voters still have not decided which cat to catch but the statistics in all the polls suggest there are only four left. Mariner suggests voters ask one question by which to decide the democratic nominee: Who will win the most states – especially the states that unexpectedly voted for Donald?
In the 2016 election, the list below represents four states where the popular vote unexpectedly went to Donald. Donald won the emboldened states by 2 percent or less. The total number of votes by which Donald won the 3 can fit in a stadium – 107,330. Donald won Michigan by less than 12,000 votes.
Florida 29 electoral votes for Donald
Michigan 16 electoral votes for Donald
Pennsylvania 20 electoral votes for Donald
Wisconsin 10 electoral votes for Donald
Donald stole six electoral votes from states where Hillary won the popular vote.
How are the 4 states doing today vis-à-vis the top four democrats?
Florida Biden by 20 points
Michigan Biden by 6.5 points
Pennsylvania Biden by 11 points
Wisconsin Biden by 4 points
Given Donald’s razor thin wins in these states, states where policy wars don’t seem to be important, perhaps the Democratic National Committee needs to focus on states that switched or almost switched to Donald. All told that includes 11 states that are called ‘battleground’ states:
Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Most agree the remaining 39 states always are true to their color – red or blue. Looking at many other states, the fact comes home that the reason to vote is to beat Donald; there is time later to talk about policy.
If, indeed, Joe is the favorite in many of the 11 battleground states, perhaps the DNC should focus on raising his profile. For example, Joe doesn’t inspire like Warren; he doesn’t cogitate like Buttigieg; he doesn’t rant like Bernie. Face it – Joe is a compromise. The DNC should roll out a national platform to help deal with the policy issues; perhaps toss around some Cabinet names; help Bloomberg spend his billions in Senate races.
It seems Joe sells comfort and lack of surprise more than anything else – something about which the whole umbrella can agree – certainly as an alternative to Donald.
I could use some comfort at the national level, so Joe sounds good to me. This analysis of a winning strategy makes sense and it would be nice if the cats could all get together long enough to win the election. My strategy is to use the millions of dollars candidates use in ad campaigns to subsidize Democrats in solid blue states to move to the swing states long enough to establish voting residency…. that could be a retirement “job” for retired voters and a peace corps type experience for young people. They could live communally, sharing resources, putting their lives on hold temporarily for the chance to make a difference. Let me be the first to sign up!
Joe is my choice, but I’d vote for Buttiigieg or Bloomberg too. I hope you’re right about Biden winning those key states.