The following paragraph is copied from the fivethirtyeight.com newsletter:
“As much as we try to remind you all about how uncertain elections can be — pleas that sometimes fall on deaf ears — it’s important to keep in mind in advance of the Iowa caucuses. To begin with, primaries are much harder to poll than general elections, and caucuses are even harder to poll than primaries, as they introduce a number of complications. Caucuses require a long time commitment, which can make turnout harder to predict. They aren’t a secret ballot, so voters can literally try to persuade their neighbors to change sides. And Iowa Democrats employ a viability check — we’ll talk about that more before the caucuses on Monday — that asks voters to switch candidates if their first choice doesn’t clear a certain threshold, usually 15 percent of the vote at that caucus site. That makes second choices important, and even opens up the possibility of strategic alliances between the candidates.”
In the last presidential caucus mariner and his wife were not allowed to cast their vote for a qualified candidate. Mariner was quite unhappy about this injustice and threatened to leave the Democratic Party if it ever happened again. The time is nigh.
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A few bloggers and political pundits have made the case that it isn’t democrat versus republican, its status quo versus everyone else, ergo, Biden will lose just like Al Gore. Those who believe this have not studied campaign polls in depth and have forgotten that Al was the ‘progressive’ compared to W. True, the younger voters prefer the progressives but the real weight class is the millennials – voters in their forties and fifties; voters who fear that their economic stability will disappear; fear that a burdened retirement will be made worse by shrinking federal discretionary programs (Social Security, Medicare, etc.); fear that artificial intelligence will decimate the careers of their children and may even cut their own jobs.
One polling statistic is undeniably clear: Donald has not improved his popularity beyond his base and conservative republicans during his entire tenure. He still is vulnerable to defeat by the national vote. It is the battle at the state level that threatens the democrats. Status quo or not, if six states return to the Electoral College with Donald winning the popular vote again, Donald will win a second term.
Finally, many more voters can see the elephant in the room: global warming. Even heartless corporations are modifying their investment strategies to accommodate global warming. Donald, of course, up to his hips in fossil fuel interests, frequently calls global warming a hoax.