Category Archives: Economy

IMF Says Poor Economic Outlook

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The International Monetary Fund chair, Christine Lagarde, says global economy will be poor in 2016 citing among other things that the West has an ageing population. That, coupled with very low oil prices affecting oil producing nations and China struggling with its own economy, Lagarde suggests growth will be spotty at best.
Western nations, including the USA, should be willing to receive as many immigrants as possible from any source to balance their populations. Already, extremely conservative economists are predicting total economic failure in the US and predict that next year is the last year for Social Security (SS). This is not likely, of course, but we all know that the fund is in trouble for a variety of reasons including an ageing population.
Many financial structures within the nation’s discretionary spending group, most of which is SS followed by health, are in need of restructuring and refunding. Al Gore campaigned for President saying he would put SS funds in a black box not to be transferrable to other uses; this should have been done from FDR’s time! The issue with opening Pandora ’s Box of restructuring SS is that the republican party wants to throw it to the wolves of Wall Street or do away with it altogether. Democrats, on the other hand, want to reinvest in SS by throwing borrowed money at SS without fixing its issues.
Restructuring SS requires a number of things:
Put a cap on coverage. Wealthier folks and retirees who have other supplemental income, do not need SS. Require payroll deductions for employers and employees for all hours worked, not just for full time. Remove some of the expanded coverage that belongs in other programs, for example, disability. A difficult but culturally necessary task is to develop new employment regulations, job descriptions and programs that keep older employees in their jobs as primary contributors to production; today, it is common for employees in their fifties and older to be pushed out before retirement age while SS qualification is raised to older and older ages. Business should return to its role of offering some form of retirement which funds can’t be used for other purposes – a barrier removed by the Reagan administration. Finally, the tax relationship between SS and earned income should be modified to treat both as earned income, thereby refunding SS as retirees increase earned income. Even better would be to add a graduated SS tax on investment income.
Across the board every discretionary program is long overdue for a restructuring of the tax code. Income and business taxes are grotesquely skewed to favor the wealthier end of the spectrum. Part of this issue is to disassemble the oligarchy and give governments back to voters – which is a subject of its own.
Further, returning to Lagarde’s prediction for a spotty economic future and assuming SS is not rescued, our next generation will not have SS. Further, do not be drawn into consumer debt regardless of what banks say. If the reader is young enough, use the 401k or SEP to its fullest extent. Establish a savings and investment budget matching no less than 10% of gross income; establish a ROTH IRA and pay in your limit each year. Chances are SS will be trimmed back in one way or another for all of us.
Ancient Mariner

Mother Earth

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The mariner came across this news item:

“Prince Charles has spoken exclusively to Sky News about his ongoing concerns about climate change, saying he believes there are links to the current refugee crisis and terrorism.

In his only interview ahead of COP21, the UN’s climate summit which opens next Monday, the Prince of Wales suggested that environmental issues may have been one of the root causes of the problems in Syria.

He said: “We’re seeing a classic case of not dealing with the problem, because, I mean, it sounds awful to say, but some of us were saying 20 years ago that if we didn’t tackle these issues, you would see ever greater conflict over scarce resources and ever greater difficulties over drought, and the accumulating effect of climate change, which means that people have to move.

“And, in fact, there’s very good evidence indeed that one of the major reasons for this horror in Syria, funnily enough, was a drought that lasted for about five or six years, which meant that huge numbers of people in the end had to leave the land.”

During the fourth millennium BC, about six thousand years ago, the Middle East was the first area to practice widespread agriculture. Slowly, over many centuries, weather patterns changed leaving mountains and harsh, crusty soil. The term “Fertile Crescent” is no longer applicable. Several debilitating floods and droughts occurred over the centuries as well as numerous wars. Governments and economies became minimal.

Then, in the nineteenth and twentieth Centuries, oil became profitable and has since provided 95% of the economy in the Middle East; the region was overrun by Western entrepreneurs who established weak local governments supported by oil profits. After the First and Second World Wars, the Middle East finally established permanent boundaries between countries except during the six year war between Iraq and Iran – a war for regional supremacy rather than for territory.

All this time, the weather worsened, leaving little in the way of economic disparity – it was oil and not much else. One wonders whether Prince Charles has a point. In the US, California suffered a drought for five years. Prices of fresh produce rose significantly. More produce was flown in from South America. North America is fortunate that another warming phenomenon came along in the form of El Nino – at the cost of floods and damaging storms. Already, 2015 is the warmest year on record. It hasn’t been thousands of years but is weather shifting? El Nino is a specific event but how can we tell that weather a hundred years from now may not be conducive to record corn and wheat crops?

Further, as with more of the Earth than we realize, fresh water is disappearing. Scientists are working hard at new ways to produce fresh, clean water. There are a few commodities that are provided by the Earth and as such should not be owned by proprietary corporations: a clean atmosphere free of carcinogens and chemicals that disrupt the chemical balance of our atmosphere. Another is water itself; corporations should never own water rights, whether natural or reproduced. Finally, while this is indirect, diversity of life is another commodity. Wildlife and plants service our planet and in the process, service us as well. Elizabeth Kolbert in her book, The Sixth Extinction, proves that humans are ravaging the Earth’s living family far more destructively than any terrorist attack by ISIL.

Very slowly, earthquake by earthquake, volcano by volcano, and our human contribution, excessive Carbon, the weather is bound to change. It’s an experience similar to living a lifetime: one is young and suddenly, almost by surprise, we wake up one morning to know we are approaching the end. It is hard to focus on large planetary issues far beyond nationalism – but the time has arrived.

Ancient Mariner

Will the Next Generation have Their Lives Lived for Them?

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The mariner admits he is a privacy advocate. It stems from his first job in computer systems: he was responsible for a corporation’s system and data backups. Security was an aspect of the job. Throughout his career in systems, he was aware of the power of information in the automated world. The mariner has written many times about the disappearance of privacy.

Generally, the younger generations have less or no concern about individual privacy in exchange for the toys, correspondence, convenience, and social media. In this post, the mariner asks a few questions to demonstrate the kind of control and abuse a computer can impose on your personal life.

Assuming that most folks eventually will order groceries online, the grocery store wants to know your shopping preferences. At least grocery stores are willing to pay for this information with discounts on gasoline or sale prices. With your history of purchases, two things occur: first, the grocery store can trim its inventory overhead by providing only those items you are likely to buy. This seems reasonable but you will be offered fewer options to buy other items unless the grocery store wants to show them to you. It will be to the store’s advantage to offer only those items or brands they want you to see.

Second, you cannot price shop; the options are offered via the Internet showing the grocery store’s pricing to you, the individual buyer. Are your prices the same as everyone else’s? Are your prices competitive with other grocery stores? Will your income, bank balance or credit score determine how much you can buy? You have traded independence for convenience; you have surrendered private shopping preferences to anyone who wants to see them for their own purposes. Mariner wonders whether a shopper has lost control of grocery shopping decisions.

Anyone who owns a computer today, whether it’s a PC or the multitude of handheld devices, has experienced unwanted popups and other advertisements that almost trap the reader into making a purchase – wanted or not. How many inexperienced folks have bought computer cleaning software because they couldn’t get rid of the popup? Further, have you noticed that advertisements and email for automobiles are limited? They are limited because the seller knows your credit score, your entire history of auto purchases, and your income.

A store clerk will not see ads from Cadillac and Tesla; more likely, it will be Kia and Mitsubishi Mirage. On the surface, this limit of choices seems innocuous; on the other hand, someone else is deciding what car you will buy. In a subtle way, someone else is telling you what you can’t buy. Can’t is the operative word: today, interest rates are based on risk – not only your credit score but if the store clerk is buying a Cadillac, the interest will be higher because a Cadillac doesn’t fit the clerk’s profile.

Banks know your credit situation before they send you an offer for another credit card. Is your credit score high? You have the opportunity for a higher line of credit and many credit options; if your credit score is low, your line of credit will be low and your interest rate higher. You actually have little choice in the matter; the full array of credit card choices is not shown – someone else has selected your card for you.

The mariner receives thousands of junk email from boat suppliers, hardware companies, woodworking companies and especially plant nurseries. How do all these retailers know about the mariner’s propensity for boat, shop and gardening? The businesses have two external sources: they buy customer lists from other businesses and they buy from the worst lot of them all, the companies that control your access to the Internet.

That brings us to Google – the worst thief of the bunch that, usually without your knowledge or any recompense, takes your personal life and makes large profits selling that information to anyone who wants it. Why do others want your information? They want to live your life for you – using their products, of course.

I mentioned in a post a few years ago that I had written an email using an AOL account; Google was my link to the Internet. In that email, I used the word “depression.” The next day, when I launched Google, three separate ads for psychiatrists appeared. Google reads our mail even if we don’t use gmail. Google knows everything. It knows the brand, model and configuration of your device; it knows every website you ever visited; Google knows all the information available through government agencies like your birth certificate, driver license, social security number, and all your insurance policies. Google denies its obsession to know everything about everyone. Google says they don’t read people’s mail – but their computers do and the computers sort, select and bundle your information to obtain the highest price from information buyers.

Another growing use of your personal data is psychological evaluation. By cross-matching your computer activity over time, Google (and anyone wanting to pay for it) can determine the status of your life. The mariner knows for a fact that Google can deduce you had an increase in pay from your purchasing patterns; Google can deduce that a divorce is imminent; Google knows your political disposition and can determine who you will vote for by cross-matching the shows and channels you prefer on television, the neighborhood you live in, the car you own, your arrest record…need the mariner go on?

What provoked this post on privacy is the fact that Google again is caught red handed modifying settings in school PCs so that Google can monitor the use of the PCs unbeknownst to anyone. Further, a student cannot modify the setting to turn off Google’s snooping. The news article is a MUST READ. See:

http://www.zdnet.com/article/google-invading-student-privacy-with-chromebooks-eff/

Mariner says it again: Don’t worry about what NSA knows about you; it’s Google who knows a lot more than NSA ever will and can use it without accountability. Besides, at least the NSA doesn’t want to live your life for you.

A recent advancement in computer technology is the use of “clouds.” A cloud is a data storage service where you can leverage many processing devices to process your data. The cloud also stores your data. This is a boon for large companies and science research that need faster processing than possible in their own locations. These large scale users have IT specialists to assure security and accuracy – specialists that you may not have to protect your data for you. The issue of privacy is bound up in the cloud service because the smart phone companies store your smart phone activity on clouds whether you need high powered processing or not. However, the smart phone companies use the high powered processing to sort through your data just like Google always has.

The next chapter in limiting your choices in life will come soon when you can no longer buy your own processing system and programs. You will rent them from owners of the clouds. Like the child who picks up a dirty object and you say, “Don’t put that in your mouth – you don’t know where it’s been!” you may also be able to say that about your data.

Ancient Mariner

Pondering the Role of Corporations

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As the world becomes smaller because of communication technology, transportation technology, international awareness of other nations, cultures, and geography, this smallness has changed corporate behavior. Because a corporation’s sole goal is profit, every act – however slight or invasive or rewarding – is an effort not intended to benefit any element of fairness, kindness, cultural improvement, employee rights, or to balance the economy. Every act is dedicated to that corporation’s wellbeing and ever to increase its own corporate profit. Today, as national boundaries soften in this smaller world, corporations have escaped national and local governance.

The conflict between government authorities and businesses is not new. The struggle for business independence likely goes back to the earliest civilized cultures. It is a natural conflict; a government ostensibly exists for the wellbeing of its citizens while a corporation exists only for its own wellbeing and profit.

To provide a quick history lesson, the following paragraphs are quoted from

http://reclaimdemocracy.org/corporate-accountability-history-corporations-us/ not for its advocacy but for its concise exegesis:

 

“When American colonists declared independence from England in 1776, they also freed themselves from control by English corporations that extracted their wealth and dominated trade. After fighting a revolution to end this exploitation, our country’s founders retained a healthy fear of corporate power and wisely limited corporations exclusively to a business role. Corporations were forbidden from attempting to influence elections, public policy, and other realms of civic society.

Initially, the privilege of incorporation was granted selectively to enable activities that benefited the public, such as construction of roads or canals. Enabling shareholders to profit was seen as a means to that end….

…. For 100 years after the American Revolution, legislators maintained tight control of the corporate chartering process. Because of widespread public opposition, early legislators granted very few corporate charters, and only after debate. Citizens governed corporations by detailing operating conditions not just in charters but also in state constitutions and state laws. Incorporated businesses were prohibited from taking any action that legislators did not specifically allow.

States also limited corporate charters to a set number of years. Unless a legislature renewed an expiring charter, the corporation was dissolved and its assets were divided among shareholders. Citizen authority clauses limited capitalization, debts, land holdings, and sometimes, even profits. They required a company’s accounting books to be turned over to a legislature upon request. The power of large shareholders was limited by scaled voting, so that large and small investors had equal voting rights. Interlocking directorates were outlawed. Shareholders had the right to remove directors at will.” (end quote)

One quickly notices the difference in the relationship between governments and corporations today. In the early days referenced by the quote, the US was still a pure democracy. Society was an all inclusive concept that included freedom of religion, the power of the vote, and any organized activity that may affect the citizens. Today, with the Supreme Court’s blessing of Citizens United, the untold wealth used to buy every aspect of government authority, and the resultant unbridled power of corporations, the only restraint on corporations is money. Control by government has been weakened to the point of uselessness. Capitalism trumps democracy. Capitalism is a religion, not an economic theory. It is more important and culturally acceptable for a corporation to ignore the wellbeing of human beings as it pursues more profit.

The mariner is reminded of when the Holy Roman Church was more powerful than the governments of its time. Unbridled power enabled the HRC to engage in brutal inquisitions, suppress scientific advances, and approve heads of state. First Baron Acton was right about power.

Today, the fossil fuel corporations suppress the growth of renewable fuel industries, attack the Clean Air Act, and, until the public had enough abuse from pipelines destroying property and claiming right of way, ran pipelines across the continent with no constraint or liability.

Today, corporations – not governments – negotiated the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) encompassing nine nations; TPP permits corporations to ignore constitutional law, civil rights and avoid taxation.

Today, communications corporations grow wealthy by usurping personal information, personal associations, family links, friend circles, medical history, credit history, and retail history. Did corporations ask permission? Did they even tell you they were collecting information without your knowledge? Did corporations tell the reader they were selling your history and preferences about everything to other corporations who want to know things and do things the reader may not want disclosed? On the other side of the issue, an old battle about the rights and accountability of content providers versus service providers continues. The difference has been smudged by mergers between the two and the evolving Internet broadcasting market. It is impossible to manage what is broadcast on social media and across the Internet. The National Security Agency is not the one to fear; Google knows a lot more about you. Even China cannot block Google. All these abuses are without accountability.

Sounds like the old days when HRC was omnipotent instead of corporatism.

Stick a pin in a communication CEO and they leap into arguments about freedom of speech. Similar to the gun issue, the Constitution and the Bill of Rights are showing their age. Some might say the same about the Supreme Court (That’s another post). The founding fathers sought to constrain oppression of speech, not to encourage access to one’s privacy. However, there was a lot of space between one town and the next and reproducing pictures and words was somewhat difficult. In the eighteenth century, privacy was an environmentally protected phenomenon. Consequently, privacy as a concept drew short shrift in legislation as communication advanced through the centuries to the omnipresent state it is today.

Three examples have been examined to demonstrate the issue of corporatism. There are many more examples: banks that can destroy the US economy; lack of citizen-wide participation in the military; conflict of interest between elected officials and private enterprise – whether bought by lobbyists or sitting on legislative committees that govern personal interests.

The mariner chose the enclosed quote because it demonstrates clearly the transition from democracy to corporatism.

REFERENCE SECTION

In case the reader does not follow replies to the mariner’s posts, a reader (Robert) provided us with an inexpensive source for less recent publications: A great source of cheap books is Edward R. Hamilton that sells remaindered books in Connecticut. Check out their huge catalog at:

http://www.hamiltonbook.com/

Ancient Mariner

About the Terrorist Situation

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The terrorist attacks in France have dominated news media for eight days. When innocent people are killed for no direct reason, this truly is murderous and beyond the reasoning of normal human beings. The terrorist battle is shaped by the power of the Internet, communication satellites, and sophisticated weaponry, which includes bombs placed in soft drink cans.

It also is shaped by a world economy based solely on profiteering. The world economy today, including current trade agreements and international treaty organizations, is designed to protect participants against nonmember incursions – military, economic and cultural. Nations with low gross national product, especially nations with authoritarian governments coupled with countering terrorist groups, are not allowed. The problem is that these nations are full of millions of people who can’t be called the poorest of poor – they truly are destitute and battle death every day from starvation, disease, civil war, terrorist murder – and an indifferent world economy. Is there reason for their animosity?

For the last half century in particular, the United States has led the way in the design and application of the world economy with its singular focus on profit. In fact, the US has set an exemplary example of a government and culture run for the purpose of profit and the power that accumulated profit brings to key players in the economy. Today, the US has become an oligarchy run by plutocrats. The idea that profit (money) is the same as speech in the First Amendment is a telling belief that the US is a profit-based culture.

That the US population (not just the billionaires) has hundreds of billions of dollars to spend on show business, sports, vacations, opulent homes, and other ancillary but expensive pastimes, suggests an abundance of cash well beyond a culture that would use excess income for education, health and social services, technical advancement, 21st century infrastructure, and government-driven charitable support for those less fortunate in the US and around the world. It is noteworthy that none of the above excesses is considered unethical or even out of the ordinary; they are expected benefits of living in a profit-driven culture.

These broad-based observations about the focused pursuit of wealth in modern times – over the centuries since the beginning of colonialism coupled with the industrial revolution and subsequent profit-based ages – are the background that has fostered inequality and poverty as quickly as it has drawn income to the winners of economic profits. It fosters a class system among nations: 1st tier industrialized nations, 2nd tier developing nations, usually commodity economies, 3rd tier undeveloped nations, in truth meaning these nations are not participating in the profit-based world economy because for one reason or another they cannot accumulate an ante to play the profit game. Like the poor in the US, they aren’t allowed to reap benefits from the profit culture.

Another benefit provided by a profit-based economy is the opportunity to feel secure, to feel good about one’s self, and to invest time in socializing and other rewarding pastimes. Conversely, those not wrapped in that security and opportunity for personal growth do not feel secure nor can they mature in a well-rounded way because they are too busy trying to survive not only in body but in spirit as well. Add to this disadvantage – especially among the ancient cultures of the Middle East – a religion that has not had the benefit of cultural upgrades and has not engaged in the evolvement of modern dependable governments – and further has no benefits from modern technology, infrastructure and lacks an income-based workforce, there exists an opportunity for terrorism. This is a common description for Somalia, Sudan, and Nigeria, just to name countries regularly in the news because of terrorism.

Understandably, these populations are starting from scratch; no dependable government exists to influence their thinking, no money to expand personal wellbeing, no nurturing history to assuage them intellectually. They are required to experience to a significant degree the nation making battles of early Europe to sort out their own winners, their own acculturation, their own form of government not based on Christianity. Like primitive man before them, metaphorically they have only spears, their fervor and their lives. While unacceptable to nations who have evolved on schedule, their only choice at the start is terrorism.

By no means do these background thoughts justify their violent behavior. But there is context. In a similar context, because of the permission ostensibly giving every American the right to bear arms, 30,000 US citizens are killed with guns every year. Because our culture condones this horrific violence and it is in the context of our laws and culture, we discount its immorality.

If we understand the context of Middle East terrorism, we may more easily have success eliminating it. The rest of the world must set an example of civil behavior else, we regress to primitive man.

Ancient Mariner

 

Today’s Issues are about Paradigm Shifts

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So many deep cultural and behavioral patterns are under duress today. To name only a few of many, In the US and Europe, consider the transition of religious practice: many churches are becoming anachronisms with falling attendance, bound by generation gaps and overburdened spiritually by large, old fashioned denominational hierarchies. On the evangelical side of the spectrum, literal allegiance to old rituals and intense isolationist attitudes prevail. A few churches are blessed by location in supportive communities and have excellent leadership. Yet the path they follow grows narrow. The current role of Christian faith in society is under pressure to change its paradigm, its model of behavior and purpose.

In the US, political process is grinding to a halt as our body politic undergoes a meiosis of culture – moving farther right and farther left – leaving little ground in the middle for common purpose. Eventually, what new political identity will emerge? What will be the new paradigm?

International relationships are confronted with global issues that require a new, stronger bond between nations. Not just climate change, a profound confrontation for which there is scant preparedness, but other global issues as well involving cybernetics, instant awareness of global activity, population management, multinational economic models, distribution of food and medical support, and the international role of corporations.

Every one of these patterns of behavior, or paradigms, is under duress, highly vulnerable to disorganized response, militaristic rebellion, profit taking, denial, and short-sighted solutions. The news of the day focuses on terrorist atrocities in France. In the Middle East, cultural wars have erupted in response to religious differences, economic inequality, cultural conflict and political disparity. Many nations struggle to find solutions to mass emigration, irrational abuse of citizens by governments and armed conflict in a war with no boundaries, no front lines, and no hierarchical organization.

What is the world to do? What are the processes by which solutions can emerge?

First, we must acknowledge that profound changes are occurring. These changes introduce new values that do not exist in the current perception of world order. Intransigent Christian concepts of society, government, and ethics have shaped the history of Western culture since the time of Constantine. Meanwhile, unnoticed histories shaped by Islam, Buddhism, Hinduism, and Taoism have evolved unnoticed until recent times. In many respects, these other historical influences have not experienced the demand for innovation and competition that Western societies require. Hence, many Eastern practices exist according to older behaviors established as long ago as the eighth century. Many Eastern governments exist today in forms that were adequate until economic and social influence from the West interfered. Tribal values persist even today; the East, particularly the nomadic Middle East, had no need in the past to develop new social solutions similar to Western mechanisms that cope with power and competition. The East never had need of a Magna Carta, parliaments, or the right to vote.

Without the cultural tools developed by the West, that is, trust in government to manage important issues, democratic tools to shape government as times changed, and the rule of law, the Middle East is bound to manage a paradigm shift with what is at hand: aggression and lashing out with violence.

The cultural conflict today, particularly the Islamic-Christian conflict, cannot be ignored. Further, it cannot be contained by armed aggression; it cannot be contained by Western political tools like treaties, international agreements like NATO, or buying compliance through economic favoritism. Of particular importance is that Middle Eastern governments are theocracies – whether dictatorships, sheikdoms or subordinate governments; the religious leaders are in charge – or at least dominate national options. Middle Eastern theocracies have not experienced the pragmatic influence of secularism first melded in Max Weber’s The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism and other publications. Further, separation of church and state mandated by a few Western nations is an unknown precept to Middle Eastern theocracies.

An assumption held by many westerners is that the West must be tolerant but controlling while waiting for the Middle East to “grow up” and become part of the modern (Christian) world. It may not be addressed as simple as that. What if the roles are switched? If the West had the attitude that it must allow the Middle East to develop a new world order inclusive of the Islamic tradition – a tradition that at least would alter Western perceptions of ethic and personal freedom.

Here are some facts about the world and Islam that may be of interest to the reader’s contemplations:

Bill Maher provides a stark comparison between Islamic and Christian ideology that’s simplistic but reveals in short order the different approaches to justice. See:

http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Islam+Vs+Christianity&FORM=VRIBRE#view=detail&mid=792282120BE4D111E919792282120BE4D111E919

The number of Christians in the world is 1.99 billion. The number of Muslims in the world is 2.08 billion. Muslim population is growing faster (1.84%) than Christian population (1.13%).

A column from CNN compares religious behavior between Islam and Christianity. See:

http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/03/conflict-theology-and-history-make-muslims-more-religious-than-others-experts-say/?hpt=hp_c1

Considering population in terms of gross income between Islamic countries and Christian countries, the Islamic paradigm restricts economic flexibility. Advances in technology, science and cultural adaptation often contradict the Quran, especially when these advances influence a change in societal behavior.

A classic example exists in Iran, an Islamic theocracy and population, struggling with its own emerging technical (and imperial) capabilities versus centuries-old religious traditions that are in conflict both with new technical ideas and with old Shiite-Sunni rivalries. Unlike other Middle Eastern nations, Iran has a growing middle class pressing for Western values and economics at the same time that Middle Eastern politics require Iranian support of Shiite wars and objectives, including ISIL and declaring the West as evil even as its middle class uses ipods, eats fast food and wears western attire.

Clearly, the Middle East is in the throes of a paradigm shift between a religion that requires strict allegiance to Islamic values going back as far as the first century and the overwhelming human experience of the twenty-first century. The gap between the old Islamic paradigm and the new paradigm is catastrophic. It will take the rest of the century to adapt to the new paradigm. In the meantime, the West must mitigate violence perhaps with little reward as Muslim nations come to terms with the modern world.

The new international paradigm that eventually emerges will call for a different West and a different Middle East. Twenty percent of the world’s population will become a new, equal and active participant in the global experience.

Ancient mariner

The Battle of Isms

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Mariner has noticed that conservatives have begun to cast pejorative meaning onto the word populism. It is claimed by conservatives and authoritarians that capitalism and populism cannot coexist. In the same sentence, socialism virtually is a curse word. Sadly, the term communism is used to bludgeon socialism, populism and progressivism; have we not learned from Senator Joe McCarthy that beliefs, especially in the Western nations, are a composite of ideas and not segregated as to become absolute? A nation functions better and has more success when ideas are a mix that draws the best from many beliefs.

Unfortunately for the conservatives, they must abide within their own ranks tea party and libertarian movements, both of which are populist. Populism is not conservative; it is not liberal. Populism means the will of common citizens is the source of judgment and morality. Populism becomes the mood of the citizenry when they become aggravated because of abuse by society’s institutions – public and private.

Some states, notably California, use the referendum (also called an initiative) as a means by which the people can legislate from the voting booth, bypassing the formal branches of government. Populism is unwieldy as a government process because it usually reflects an emotional reaction by the masses, which may not be the best source for reason or fairness. A benchmark example of populism run amok occurred in California in 1978. The reader may remember that inflation was high in the 1970’s. Inflation had been climbing for several years, reaching a peak of 14% annually.

The combination of inflation, growing population and ever increasing property taxes began to force many California homeowners to sell their homes because they could not afford to pay property taxes. Finally, there was enough pain inflicted that an initiative was drawn up; it received enough signatures on the petition that it qualified to be on the ballot. In a word, the initiative said that property taxes could be raised only 1%. From that day to today, California has been paying a price. What was once one of the top public school systems disintegrated due to lack of funds. California is in debt. Public services still are reduced. Walkouts and strikes ensued. In other words, an honest and severe experience in the lives of many citizens led to active populism. Short-sighted relief collapsed the seventh largest economy in the world. The change made to the California Constitution remains today.

The United States has provoked a similar stress point today because of an unfair distribution of profit. Bernie Sanders defines the problem well. In another post, the mariner cited the statistic that since 1940, inflation has risen 2,273% while average income has risen only 455%. Certainly, the stretched rubber band approaches the chaotic point where it will snap. Another statistic says that if one does not receive income of some sort equal to $150,000.00 per year, one is slowly falling behind in purchasing power.

We know some of the causes: plutocrats manage the governments – the common citizen’s vote is virtually useless. The ploys of control are politically managed by gerrymandering voting districts and using restrictive racist policies; elected officials are knee deep in bribes and protected from prosecution for many illicit financial practices; the cash dam broke when the Supreme Court said money was free speech and approved Citizens United; since the 1980’s, corporations were authorized to raid retirement funds for corporate reinvestment; union busting was common using bankruptcy law and restructuring of corporations; Social Security funds have been reallocated to other uses since World War II; lax attitudes about entitlements and workers rights allowed businesses to stifle minimum wage and wages in general; insurance, health and bank profits are uncontrolled, rising far ahead of inflation. And the issue everyone hears is the existence of a brutal oligarchy where 1% possesses 90% of the nation’s wealth.

Chicken Little is saying “There is chaos! The sky is falling!” Amos says The US is paying for its sinfulness. God will strike down the nation!”

Populism, anyone?

The most critical vote in many decades is before us next year. Vote. Vote thoughtfully.

Ancient Mariner

 

Nobel Prize for Economics

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Dr. Angus Deaton won the Nobel Prize for Economics. His methods for determining the wellbeing of an economy start with the poor and disadvantaged classes – a new attitude among economic theorists.

Mariner remembers a television show hosted by Bill Moyers that aired several years ago. His guests were three economists. Mariner was aghast at the indifferent attitude toward those who lose their jobs because of a major change in the economy. All three economists agreed that fifteen percent of the job market disappears in a major economic shift. That’s just how it is. Sure, there are some unhappy people but that’s how economics works.

A year ago, on Global Public Square (GPS), Fareed Zakaria also had three economists who had the same attitude about the loss of jobs caused by an economic shift. Again, it was estimated, matter-of-factly, that fifteen percent of the work force becomes unemployed.

In common for all the economists mentioned and most others are the formulas and data used to determine the health and efficiency of a given economy. Simply, to avoid pages of economic jargon, economists use bulk data drawn from major industries; they use corporate growth and productivity; they use Gross Domestic Product and trade balances. All this summarized data is plugged into various formulas that provide the measure of success for a given economy.

Angus Deaton won a Nobel Prize for his analysis of poverty, welfare and consumption to determine the health and efficiency of a given economy. His data is compiled from interviews with thousands of individuals rather than summations from corporate and government sources. Deaton measures wellbeing rather than profit. Don’t tell other economists there is a humanist among them; an economist is supposed to have the attitude of an individual with aspergers syndrome – zero empathy. That’s how economics works…

Dr. Deaton’s research is very broad, covering microeconomics, econometrics, macroeconomics and development economics. Mariner will cover interesting bits and pieces but it will require more than one post. The reader may find the mariner referring to Deaton insights from time to time. For now, mariner found observations about the very poor to be insightful and he will share just a few bits and pieces here.

While macroeconomists had been satisfied that their theories could explain the relationship between the total level of consumption and total income in the economy, Mr. Deaton showed that those same theories struggled to explain what individual households were doing. This has spawned a large and productive continuing research program trying to understand the spending patterns of actual households. Angus Deaton is the leading expert on the economic behavior of the extremely poor. In this post, the mariner will describe economic behavior among those earning between $1.08 per day and $2.16 per day. Much of the information is taken from a Deaton-related study, The Economic Lives of the Poor by Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, Volume 21, Number 1—Winter 2007.

The first insight for the mariner was how entrepreneurial the abject poor are. An example is the women of Guntur, India living in the biggest slum. At 9:00AM, many women are sitting in front of their homes with a kerosene stove and a round griddle. For 15¢ (US value), a woman will cook a dosa, a rice and bean pancake; dipped in a sauce and placed in a banana leaf, it is a common breakfast. An hour later, the stoves are gone. One woman is walking door to door selling saris she has decorated with beads and sparkling objects the day before. Income is accrued from other activities including but not limited to labor, collecting trash and making pickles to sell. Women in this large slum have no stable economy, no banks, no lending institutions but they maintain a day-to-day economy solely with their own ingenuity. The economy is virtually penniless but is sustained by simple entrepreneurship providing a cultural stability that allows everyone to participate on a level playing field and to earn enough among each family to survive.

In the United States, there is an intense disdain for the abject poor. The reader can’t survive a day without hearing someone say, “They ought to get off their asses and get a job!” Deaton wrote that the very poor behave the same all over the world. Without meaningful assets, without the ability to borrow, without permanent salary, without decent clothing and with no health care, the poor are more nimble at finding a living where none should exist. What lies in the way of economic equalization from either side is a large abyss between funded culture and the penniless poor. As it turns out, the very poor in Guntur are happy!

Ancient Mariner

Time to Act against TPP

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The infamous Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is on its way to congress. Details finally have been released through several channels. The TPP is heavily tilted toward increased power for corporations. If TPP passes, it will be a new era where business begins to dictate to government regarding the rights and wellbeing of the citizenry. Church and state is small potatoes compared to the corporate intrusion into the Constitution and Bill of Rights.

Since World War II, the generic corporate model began to operate between nations; tax evasion, hidden funds, no allegiance to workers, no need to sustain environmental or product quality – all are indicators that corporations have become a new kind of nation not bound by traditional government authority. The TPP is the same as a military invasion aimed at taking away the authority of target nations. Plain and simple, the US is under attack to increase corporate profit and to avoid responsibility for citizen wellbeing.

This week, Wikileaks released the long-secret investment provisions of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that revealed the trade deal would give big business the ability to sue governments for protecting the public interest – confirming our worst fears about the trade deal being pushed by the business community, Republican leadership and the Obama administration.

Mariner asks for a small inconvenience from his readers. Will you please write or call all federally elected politicians, especially your senators, that represent you; tell them to veto the TPP. There are different ways to do this:

Write a letter using the US Postal Service.

Write an email; the address of your representatives can be found using searches for Congressional Representatives.

Call your representatives; phone numbers are on the same websites as addresses.

Use the following link to Food and Water Watch to use the convenient procedure for sending your opinion to your representatives. Do not feel hesitant about providing your information; elected officials want to know you live in their district and may want to respond. Uncheck the boxes if you do not want FWW to contact you in the future.

https://secure.foodandwaterwatch.org/site/Advocacy?cmd=display&page=UserAction&id=1777&s_src=blg#_ga=1.267545422.1527426085.1431442204

Visit your representatives in their home offices.

The precedents set by TPP will create a world-wide culture where citizens are not the first priority – profit is.

Thank you very much for this favor.

Ancient Mariner

 

The Fullness of Time

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The Fullness of Time was a period of expectation in Israel that began in intensity around 700-600BC when the Book of Isaiah was written (there were other prophets before and after Isaiah). In essence, the Hebrew population was admonished for being lax in faith and practice; at some point in time, when the time was right – AKA fullness of time – God would send a Messiah to lead the Hebrews from this degenerate period of history. The Christians leaned heavily on these prognostications when pronouncing Jesus as that Messiah (See Galations 4:4).

What is relevant in the fullness of time today is that the same paradigm is occurring. Not limited to Bible interpretations but more broadly framed in the 21st century’s international, cultural, technical, scientific and multi-religious history, our fullness of time has reached a point of advancement that requires a significant shift in humankind’s values. When Jesus was born, the few hundred years before provided advancements that set the stage for Christianity to represent a new age of understanding; the Greek language (capable of documenting precise ideas), the emergence of a larger Earth (Roman Empire), and the spread of monotheism (Israel) required a new culture and a new understanding of human value.

Reaching the point of salvation, that is, passing through the tumultuous whorl of change and finally living in a new age is not a pleasant trip. As a clear example, consider the history of slavery in the United States. Slavery was present in US colonies in 1609 and reached as far north as Massachusetts by 1629; slave sugar republics in the Caribbean Islands began around 1650. Southern slave states in the United States emulated the culture of Caribbean slave republics leading to a plantation society.

Slowly, over a period of 150 years, the US transitioned into a northern society where slavery became a social and moral issue – thereby gradually passing legislation that outlawed slavery. Nevertheless, even in the north, common rights afforded by the Constitution and the Bill of Rights were not available to most blacks. In the south, where the economy of slavery and the social prejudice of color were firmly entrenched, there was no intention to abolish slavery. It took the Civil War in 1860-65 where 750,000 citizens died to change government laws that would protect minimal rights for African Americans. Education remains an issue in the US even today; in 1957, the National Guard had to be called to have nine African Americans enter Central High School in Alabama over the objections of Governor George Wallace. Even today, voting rights, affirmative action, and segregation are unresolved.

Today in 2015, 406 years after the first slave entered the United States, the residue of prejudice remains. In former slave states disdain for the Federal Government remains strong. The slavery age is not over but is there a fullness of time? Is there a moment when US culture will become multiracial without prejudice? Slowly, the race issue is changing before us with the increase of immigrants from all over the world – especially Central America and the Gulf region. Changes to slavery have been brutal and continues to suffer in a wrenching time of change.

Add to slavery the fullness of time for a fair economy, stopping the abuses of international corporatism, providing dependable financial support for all citizens, health reform, and protection of a planet capable of supporting its biomass – not to mention many civil issues like starvation, war, prison reform, and better treatment of livestock – the new slave on the block.

All these issues are entering the whorl of rapid change. Congressman Boehner is but one tick of the clock.

Ancient Mariner