It likely that Buttigieg will not stay near the top as states with diverse ethnicity have their say in primaries. Iowa, New Hampshire and perhaps Nevada (Latino but not many African Americans) are not particularly diverse. North Carolina, however, has a significant African American population. As of today in North Carolina, Buttigieg ranks fourth among democratic candidates with only 6 percent. Buttigieg’s perception is that blacks need black but middle class examples for their economic and educational circumstances to improve, implying that blacks are their own deterrent rather than implying a larger societal issue.
Similarly, the progressive candidates will lose what seem to be strong positions at the top of the list as the primary season swings across the hinterland. There democrats are centrist first, liberal second; only west coast states and some large cities will aggressively support progressive candidates.
The bottom of the list, referred to by many as special interest candidates, women, rookies and recognition junkies, likely will stay at the bottom. The two billionaires (Steyer and Bloomberg) are a small threat to finally be able to buy the Federal Government just as mariner may be able to buy a 2014 Toyota.
This leaves Joe. The legacy of the campaigns with Obama still resonates with African Americans. The hinterland is more comfortable with Biden’s centrist history and style. Many polls show Biden with leading numbers as a second choice candidate. His speaking foibles will not be enough to push him out of the competition. Finally, as a compromise candidate among the many tribes of democrats – after all what really counts is defeating Donald – Joe will be the man.
The electorate may respond somewhat to Joe and many Hillary holdouts may return to the fold, perhaps just enough to make the Electoral College insignificant.
After the candidates’ display of talent, intellectuality and cognizance of the new world everyone faces, mariner feels greedy and wants to keep all of them around. With luck, those in the Senate will stay in the Senate, others will make excellent Cabinet Secretaries, and some will become Governors. Joe’s job will be to make peace between parties then lead the charge to win majority in the Senate in 2024.