For readers who don’t frequent bookie sites, the mariner provides today’s odds versus two weeks ago that a candidate will be elected President.
Two Weeks Ago ————- 12-31-2015
| Hillary Clinton | 8/11 | 72% | 8/11 | 72% |
| Marco Rubio | 5/1 | 20% | 11/2 | 18% |
| Donald Trump | 8/1 | 12½% | 8/1 | 12½% |
| Ted Cruz | 12/1 | 8% | 10/1 | 10% |
| Jeb Bush | 22/1 | 4½% | 22/1 | 4½% |
| Bernie Sanders | 28/1 | 3½% | 20/1 | 5% |
| Chris Christie | 33/1 | 3% | 33/1 | 3% |
| Ben Carson | 200/1 | ½% | 200/1 | ½% |
| John Kasich | 200/1 | ½% | 250/1 | 2/5% |
| Rand Paul | 200/1 | ½% | 200/1 | ½% |
| Martin O’Malley | 250/1 | 2/5% | 250/1 | 2/5% |
| Mike Huckabee | 250/1 | 2/5% | 500/1 | 2/10% |
| Carley Fiorina | 250/1 | 2/5% | 500/1 | 2/10% |
Despite a few dropping in odds and only Bernie improving a smidge to move ahead of Jeb, positions have not changed in two weeks. Of course, two weeks is not meaningful before the primaries and November. Still, bettors with money where their mouth is instead of a free pollster are settling in. Take into account the democrats have an edge in the Electoral College (1.8 votes – typically enough to win) and the race is Hillary’s to lose. Too bad the DNC deliberately hides their debates to avoid public exposure to Bernie. All’s fair in love, war, and politics.
To reiterate, as we enter the primary season, give some thought to the undercard, that is, the reader’s senators, representatives, state legislators, governors and mayors. Many states are so tightly bound by grotesquely gerrymandered voting districts that the winners can be predicted without voting. This is not a healthy sign for a democracy. Only nine states are swing states – worth 130 Electoral College votes. They are:
Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and New Hampshire. In the last election, Colorado was the state that brought it home for the democratic candidate.
217 electoral votes are necessary to win the Presidential election. If the reader wants to track changes, a good site is: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ or http://www.bing.com/search?q=which+states+tossup+for+presidential+election&qs=n&form=QBLH&pq=which+states+tossup+for+presidential+election&sc=0-19&sp=-1&sk=&cvid=CC555DFBC2CF4D5F88AFB548D98F4E22
This is a very important election. The mariner strongly, strongly urges the reader to attend your caucus or primary. Then, especially strongly, vote in November.
Ancient Mariner