Two Phenomena that will force Change in Our Economy

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The mariner mentioned recently that he was investigating the rapidity of change in marketplace products. The research on this subject has uncovered a wide ranging impact on culture and economy; the mariner still researches this subject. So far, two themes prevail throughout: Replacing current products with new products at an ever increasing pace is not a substitute for growth in an economy. The second theme is more volatile – global economy in 2020 will be in a state of worldwide depression – or not. Economists’ opinions are divided by predictions of what markets may emerge.

In this post, mariner examines whether new products are a substitute for growth in the US economy.

Since the late eighties, technical age nations have been exposed to a continuous revolution of new products displacing old ones before the old ones are old or culturally displaced. The obvious leader in this phenomenon is the 4G cell phone; Apple is the prominent example with its iPhone devices. Rapid replacement has affected marketing psychology across many sectors primarily as a spinoff of the iPhone; for example, virtually every marketplace can now be reached by an APplication promoted as an upgrade in service – and cost. The question arises, is this activity progress or is it disruption?

On a larger scale, communication providers and content providers are merging to reconfigure the business model for television/Internet viewing. Further, many companies, especially technology companies, are leveraging “cloud storage” as a new source of income from the same customer base that already exists. Again, the question is asked, is this activity progress or is it disruption? Is this activity a new market or is it simply reshuffling the deck of the same market, that is, is the new “profit” really a boost to the Gross National Product?

Yes, this is boring stuff. All this “product” development is laid over a saturated market. It is comparable to raising the rent on the same house; it is a hidden inflation factor more than it is new product income. The citizenry experiences a lot of activity and feels more secure about the future because gasoline prices are down and there is more discretionary cash in the household budget. This attitude may be unwarranted.

The technology industry is on hold at the moment waiting for the next product disruption to occur. Economists sense, however, that the next wave of products will be affordable only to a smaller market of higher income folks. This may cause tech company layoffs. Matched with continuously smaller job market opportunities, less than viable oil prices, and Federal/state debt, economists fear another recession no matter who is elected President.

Add to the pile of worries the terrible condition of US infrastructure – not only light rail, bridges and roads but new distribution technology for energy grids, water, and high speed communications, speculation about a downturn cannot be ignored. The US is not out of the forest, yet. We’ll have to wait for the next President and Congress to have a chance at avoiding a downturn.

REFERENCE SECTION

The Age of Stagnation: Why Perpetual Growth is Unattainable and the Global Economy is in Peril by Das, Satyajit.

A good website to add to the reader’s regular review of business trends is:

http://www.economywatch.com/news/Recession-Signs-Growing-Employers-Cut-Jobs-Factory-Orders-Fall0205.html

Clayton M. Christianson published The Innovator’s Dilemma in 1997. Christianson is the author who penned the word “disruption.” The book deals with the manner in which new, young companies disrupt older companies by producing cheaper products that have more demand. His primary example is the laptop computer displacing the market of larger mainframe computer companies.

Ancient Mariner

Where is our Light?

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The mariner was watching one of Joseph Campbell’s lectures on DVD last evening; it was the one about uniting with the myth beyond the physical world. He used a simple analogy that prepares one’s mind to grasp the concept:

You are in a school room at night. There are a number of light bulbs on at the ceiling. The room is bright with light. Campbell asks, “Are you a light bulb or are you the light? A light bulb is a physical thing. If one burns out, you simply replace it. What is more important is the light. Without light, there is no use for bulbs.” This analogy was his way of saying that we bulbs must be more than ourselves; we must reach beyond incandescence and become the purpose that lies beyond the physical body – the essence of why we exist.

Opening a post with this deep analogy may stop the reader from reading further. Mariner offers apologies. Every culture from the dawn of human awareness to every global, regional and tribal culture today has sought and continues to seek a transcendent relationship with a source of meaning beyond the physical world. Campbell suggests the western world has lost its myth – that our bulb glows but there is no light. This loss is the source of our vague sense of consternation and is the source of our disconnection from who we are supposed to be – not only as individuals but as part of our human society and as a part of a greater universe. We have a vague feeling of being disconnected. One may come to the point that they stop to think, “How do I know that I have fulfilled my role, my responsibility, my destiny?”

In religious context, becoming the light is the same as metamorphosis. One transcends the physical world and perceives the universality of existence. The transcendent event at the end of Jesus’ life is a supreme example of transformation – freeing consciousness from the constraints of the body. The mythology of most religions suggests this event occurs upon death although it can be represented by extreme examples of heroism and self sacrifice.

The conundrum for western civilization is to define an integrated combination of personal role and morality, societal obligation and ethic, and a value for universal existence.

Joseph Campbell said that myth and science must grow together, that both are an awareness of the mythic universe. In the western world today, what kind of bulb are we? Where is our light?

 

REFERENCE SECTION

Election Projection is a website dedicated to the 2016 campaign for President. Dozens of articles examine the campaign from every direction. The website has a full history of polls, analysis of each candidate and observations about each primary – a veritable mall for readers who want to indulge. See:

http://www.electionprojection.com/

Ancient Mariner

 

Democratic Debate in New Hampshire

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The mariner is pleased with the debate between Bernie and Hillary. For the first time in any 2016 presidential debate, republican or democrat, the voter was given a clear view of the personality and talents each candidate will bring to the office of President in 2016.

The heart of each candidate, that is, their desire to deliver to the electorate what is most needed by that electorate, is identical. Both are champions of human need, economic reform, and what’s best for the forgotten majority.

For the first time, the agenda of each candidate became clear. Bernie intends to fix the systemic issues that have led to oligarchy. Banks, Corporations, tax reform, bribery and collusion in the election process, and a plan to attack gerrymandering, are at the top of Bernie’s list. By fixing the political abuses, proper legislation and discretionary funding will right themselves and deliver programs to the people. However, Bernie will be prone to compromise when it comes to program specifics.

Hillary intends to develop programs first. She will attack current legislation that defeats the spirit of discretionary funding. Hillary will prioritize human rights, expand education funding, and reduce medical costs – but not through single payer. By fixing specific programs, the Ship of State trims its sails more in line with public interest. However, Hillary will be prone to compromise when it comes to fixing the oligarchy.

If the voter is interested in the programs of government, then Hillary sounds more appealing. If the voter is interested in the policies of governance, then Bernie sounds more appealing. The mariner is reminded of one of his father’s pop psychology tools: Bernie is a why-how person while Hillary is a how-what person1. That being the case, there are far more how-what folks in the population than why-how. For no other reason than the difference between their personalities, Hillary may fare better once the primaries leave liberal states and head into the prairie.

On such subliminal attributes, political success rises and falls.

REFERENCE SECTION

1For more detail on Pop’s Psychology, see post from December 21, 2015.

The Congress has ninety days to vote for or against a fast track of the TPP trade agreement. Mariner is firmly opposed to fast track and prefers that the TPP be examined by Congress – that’s as close as citizen review is possible. Note that the majority of presidential candidates, including both democrats, are opposed to the trade agreement. For a good, clear, and easy read about the TPP, see:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/12/business/unpacking-the-trans-pacific-partnership-trade-deal.html?_r=0

President Obama is in favor of the TPP because, in his opinion, the TPP makes the United States a central player in future Asian economics, dampening the future influence of China. All well and good – but at what price to the common citizen? Corporations will have unfettered control of profits, taxes, human rights, and the future wellbeing of nine nations.

Ancient Mariner

 

The Morning Line – February 3 2016

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Here’s the morning line out of Vegas:

Hillary Clinton 10/11 91%
Marco Rubio 3/1 33%
Donald Trump 7/1 14%
Bernie Sanders 8/1 12%
Ted Cruz 16/1 6%
Jeb Bush 50/1 2%
Michael Bloomberg 50/1 2%
Joe Biden 80/1 1.25%
Chris Christie 100/1 1%
John Kasich 200/1 ½%
Ben Carson 700/1 1/10 of Even less than less than 1%
Carly Fiorina 800/1 About the size of a human skin cell
Rand Paul 999/1 infinitesimal
Martin OMalley 250/1 Suspended campaign
Rick Santorum 999/1 Suspended campaign
Mike Huckabee 2000/1 Suspended campaign

Hillary held the same odds as always; interestingly, one bookie has taken bets for Hillary NOT to win the 2016 election at even odds. The biggest positive shift was in favor of Marco who jumped from 10/1 to 3/1, moving from fourth place to second. The biggest negative shift was Donald who dropped from 5/6 to 7/1 moving to third place. Ted continues to be unpopular with the betting crowd, staying in fifth place despite his win in Iowa; odds dropped from 12/1 to 16/1. Bernie held his odds but dropped one spot to fourth.

As to candidates with longer odds, most betting houses have stopped posting a morning line; the listed odds were taken from just two bookies.

 

Ancient Mariner

At the Caucus

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About 100 folks attended the Democratic Caucus in mariner’s home town. Two attendees stood in Martin O’Malley’s corner – mariner and his wife. It was only a few moments before we were asked to move to the ‘undecided’ table because Martin did not have enough votes to meet the minimum 15% required to be a sustainable candidate.

But we weren’t undecided. No matter, we had to abandon our candidate and choose another one. The Iowa Democratic Caucus, unlike the town republicans, and for that matter, the rest of the caucuses and primaries across the nation, has the right to deny one’s vote as valid. Clearly, this winnowing procedure is designed to glean “probable” winners from others who, at the first caucus, have yet to generate sufficient interest from the voters.

The mariner respects the interaction and debate fostered by the Iowa caucus process. Further, the caucus forces big-time candidates to meet local voters face to face, eat barbecued chicken, let the voters touch them and ask questions no politician will answer directly. In too many jurisdictions around the United States, the primary process is sterile, mechanical and allows no moment for the voter to see or listen to a real-life candidate.

The mariner has concern that the very first ‘democratic’ primary in the national election process tosses out legitimate candidates any of which may become a dark horse later in the season. He especially is concerned that the democratic party has the right to coerce a voter to cancel their preferred vote and select another candidate – shades of Boss Tweed! True, one could be obstinate and refuse to change their vote but one foregoes representation in the caucus process.

Despite the romantic grandeur cast over Iowa’s unique primary process, the process is outdated. For months ahead, sophomoric news media derails any legitimate attempt to compare candidates on a level playing field. Consider the dominance of Donald on news broadcasts, gleaning more than 100 minutes of free air time compared to virtually none for any of a half-dozen legitimate politicians. Further, so much money is available to candidates that they can continue to campaign despite their irrelevance. Consider Jeb – then consider O’Malley who had to suspend his campaign with only $175,000 left in campaign funds. Yet, Jeb has spent and still has coffers that will carry him to the Convention with half the voter percentage that O’Malley has.

Seasoned attendees to the Iowa Caucus have stories to tell about the dissolution of friendships because open debate among voters is allowed and, if nothing else, one can see who chose which candidate. Even at this caucus, the mariner must patch the hard feelings of a good friend because he did not stand for the appropriate candidate.

All things considered, mariner is most troubled that one person, one vote does not prevail. What makes the Iowa democratic party any different than race discrimination in Alabama and Mississippi? They, too, prevent one from having one’s voice heard at the ballot box; those states just do it differently.

Ancient Mariner

When Time Slows

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Tomorrow, the State of Iowa leads us into the primary season for the election of the next President in November. Not mentioned as much – if at all – is the undercard of Senators, Congressmen, State legislators, Governors, Attorneys General, Mayors and Judges. Overall, the General Election of 2016 is a climactic event in American history.

The early phase of the campaign, which comes to a close with the beginning of primary season, shows immense dissatisfaction with ‘The Establishment.’ Even the Billionaire Club of folks like the Koch Brothers and all the PAC money hidden from accountability has little influence. One must acknowledge the contribution to voter dissatisfaction by the republican Congress that collapsed the functionality of Congress for all of Obama’s tenure; forty failed votes to remove the Affordable Care Act suggests the Congressmen had lost touch both with job description and with accountability to the Nation’s true needs.

Not all dissatisfaction lay with the republicans. The democratic Congressmen showed little unity at times when a unified party vote could have had results. The democratic base, also ignored for the last decade, is not satisfied with the direction of the US. Underlying the democratic dissatisfaction is a philosophy of government that rewards wealth – including corporate wealth without obligation to society – and further suppresses working classes and family support.

Influencing the 2016 vote from the sidelines are huge contemporary issues like global warming, world-wide economic recession, world-wide immigration issues, and political realignment of nations driven by economics and military dominance. Finally, ignored for too long, a planet suffering human, ecologic and geologic stress – ignored despite decades of warning from scientists.

The mariner opines that the victor in the Presidential election will be a candidate with a smaller foot in old school politics and a dominant foot in new government philosophies that focus on a forgotten working class. While this is likely, it is not guaranteed; the danger is electing an old school politician who is determined to ‘stabilize the world we live in now’ – a world that no longer exists.

 REFERENCE SECTION

Mariner occasionally peruses old posts to help decide subject matter for new posts, consider new subject matter, changes in circumstances, and thoughts that may deserve further commentary. Occasionally, mariner finds a typo or misspoken fact. In the post from December 31, 2015, it was noted that 217 Electoral College votes were necessary to win the election for President. While ‘217’ sounds a lot like ‘270’, the correct number is 270.

Ancient Mariner

 

What a Change in Era Feels Like

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Stop for a moment and, in your mind’s eye, view a 360° turn along the horizon. Focus on political and cultural happenings at the horizon of your view. Between where you are and the horizon is a lot of disruption as the events of our day fight over what the horizon will look like when we reach it. Interestingly, when you focus only on the horizon, there is not much to see. Things will be different when we reach the horizon.

When one thinks about it, we are living in the midst of a transition from one era to another – the kind we read about in history books like the age of exploration, the age of government by law, and the age of Enlightenment.

So many definitions of life are morphing. Less than fifty years ago, being a homosexual was not to be spoken to – a socially denied trait. Today, in most states, homosexual marriage and family structure are accepted. Economically, post WWII employment practices included union representation, company pensions, cost of living raises, and the ability for an employee to enjoy a genuine vacation without fear of losing their job in the meantime. There were poor practices like unequal pay for women and lack of profit sharing. All these employment practices are turbulent issues today. Are these issues changing beneath our feet? Don’t measure such things daily or even monthly. Take a year-end survey of what has changed. One will be surprised how much change and turbulence in cultural value has occurred.

As in an unkempt garden where some plants take advantage, some practices grew out of hand. Foremost is the liberation of corporations whereby, as markets became international, corporations escaped the moral accountabilities of any given constitution or protective requirements in behalf of citizens and the Planet itself. Further, the benefits and stability of jobs were undercut, not permitting the populace a share of the growth at the turn of the century. The US democracy morphed into an oligarchy that deflated the voting power necessary for a democracy to exist.

Current observations by writers and historians also contribute to a sense of change. Investors fear a collapse of the world economy – is this because cultural transition clouds what future economies will look like? The cybernetic industry pauses to identify the next big market – is this because consumer interests may change as the description of jobs changes, as the retail market changes, because the entrepreneurial resources are on hold waiting for a similar cultural shift?

Some showstoppers have emerged that also will facilitate change. The confrontation between global warming and the fossil fuel industry is just now beginning to deal with an issue that can’t be delayed by the normal drag of investment transition. Food availability, particularly seafood, has peaked. The weather plays a role in crop production – will more energetic weather patterns spurred by global warming continue? Does this portend a significant change in the way we must produce adequate food not only in the US but worldwide?

To make the issues a single dilemma, we are in a state of chaos. Yes, mariner uses that word often but our times reflect chaos – mathematically, socially, governmentally, ecologically, economically, and so on. Our government, along with all the other nations, is slow to change – perhaps too slow as the world spins into a new age. Governments, by their nature, protect power and influence. That is normally a good thing; government, if it does what it is supposed to do, acts as a ballast to stabilize society and all the elements that contribute to society.

But now, all of a sudden, power and influence balk at uncontrolled change. Nevertheless, the citizenry knows intuitively that something doesn’t work right. That something is that government and all that influences it must stop managing stability and begin steering change – easier to say than do.

This is why the 2016 election is a signal election. Obviously, both US political parties are in disarray as old platforms of policy collapse beneath them; incumbent politicians are unusually passé not understanding that their career definitions are increasingly invalid.

In spite of destructive gerrymandering, in spite of Citizens United, in spite of bastions of archaic prejudice – the American voter must persevere and change the government to a manager of change.

Ancient Mariner

 

Visiting the Folks

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The mariner returned recently from the Southwest. It was important to see his children again; that was a fulfilling experience. Mariner also went to the Southwest to visit the Sonora desert. He has never been to a desert biome and that experience, too, was fulfilling.

Now, about a week back in Iowa, he had time to absorb the impact of the visit. The desert experience reminded him that it has been a long time since he visited the planet he lives on.

Perhaps a visit to our home – our planet – is something each of us should do on a regular basis. Homo sapiens pushed aside Earth to make room for human-specific priorities. This is our prerogative; evolution has provided humans with propensities that encourage redesigning our environment to fit our needs and that enable us with technologies that can create new potential for our species. Wrapped up in our concrete cities, our electronic gadgetry, our quest for comfort and privilege, we forget that we are offspring of our planet.

Many people, of course, feel they return to nature to camp, jog, walk, and other human purposes. This is not the same thing. This is like visiting one’s invalid great grandfather not to restore the bond between the two of you, or to look genuinely after his needs but to impose on him your own personal accomplishments and interests. Truth be told, wise old grandpa couldn’t care less; he has his own reality to deal with. And so it is with the wise old parent of all of us: Earth.

Had we, over the millennia, considered our planet and its biosphere to be part of the formula for success, perhaps we may not be causing the sixth extinction, we may not have allowed Carbon imbalance, we may not have been so destructive that we have our own epoch – the Anthropocene, created because our trashiness has literally changed the surface of the Earth.

Every one of our species should visit Earth every few months. The visit entails setting aside human interpretations of what we see. This is a good time to practice empathy and imagination; empathy is something humans should exercise frequently anyway because empathy is not used when it should be.

Hello, field mouse. You seem busy. Why do you scurry so much? Is the space you live in adequate and satisfactory to your needs? You caught a cricket. Will you carry the cricket back to a nest? How can I help you defend your environment?

Hello, hawk. How far do you fly to find your meals? What do you eat? Are there places for you to nest safely? How can I help you defend your environment?

Hello, turtle. Hello, opossum. Hello, bluebird. Hello, frog. Hello, monarch butterfly. Hello, bee. Hello, rain forest. Hello, bat. Our fellow inhabitants suffer for our lack of empathy and respect for their environmental needs. We humans have the ability to push aside any life form and any ecological presence so we can build Interstates, convert hundreds of acres from open land to super malls with room for us to park our cars. Our capability to overrule nature is a power. Power corrupts. Homo sapiens is so corrupt, in fact, that we don’t provide proper habitat even for our own. Millions starve to death. War, an antiquated tool, is used too easily.

Recently, Stephen Hawking proposed that Homo sapiens will be extinct within 10,000 years. The first signs of human ritual occurred about 10,000 years ago. We are halfway through our time on this planet. No doubt, many other residents are cheering that day.

Mariner urges you to spend a half day in the wilderness – meaning more than ten blocks from a sidewalk and paved street. As you walk, take your time to find tiny little environments, small creature environments, and wide-ranging environments. Stop and empathize. The other inhabitants will appreciate the rare, good vibes.

Ancient Mariner

 

A last piece about The House that Tom Built

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It was mentioned that Tom never misses an opportunity to visit closeouts and auctions. Below is a collection of products provided by Tom’s ingenious skill with what most would pass up as useless items.

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Figure 1 Balusters are old bed frames.

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Figure 2 Recognize an antique hay rake?

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Figure 3 These connection brackets took some thought.

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Figure 4 Some things one can’t build by one’s self.

REFERENCE SECTION

Reporting on the monkey head transplant, mariner can understand that many readers considered this story as something out of the fringe crazy folks. From all efforts to confirm the story, mariner is confident the head transfer was made. A similar transplant occurred as early as the 1970’s. However, in a BBC article, a rational (if judgmental) evaluation is made by a mainstream neurosurgeon. See: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/1263758.stm

Cybernetics

Here and there, page six articles are appearing that suggest a contraction in DotCom investment. Hyperbolic headlines predict another ‘bubble’ collapse similar to that in 2000. Indicators are that the big old giants (IBM, Oracle, etc.) have eroding markets; further, there are only so many incremental improvements in Apple products and only so many market-worthy apps before app integration emerges. The mariner’s career was in the era of system integration at the customer level – that is taking discombobulated subsystems and developing new integration efficiencies primarily through the development of super databases. Today, that solution has evolved into cloud solutions; the era of customer-based data centers is over. The big IBM operation in the basement of a corporation is on its way out – just plug into a cloud.

The same is true of home-based processing. New 4G devices press subscribers to store data on proprietary clouds rather than on independent, home-based hardware. Very soon, as individuals upgrade their home operating systems, they will discover that owning operating system disks is no longer possible. The home user will have to rent operating systems and integrated programs like MS Office, Photoshop, and utility software like Norton and Firefox from the owners of the clouds – a marketplace more akin to Amazon.com than to an independent retailer. It is similar in function to the mariner developing new integration efficiencies in 1990-2010.

As any technology ages market pressures require that investment cash flow remain high. This is accomplished by functional integration. It happens in every industry. At the moment, there is a pause as automated information industries look for the next integration. Many prognosticators suggest that 3-D will be the next innovation: the TV screen will become your room – not just a screen – dress decently before you answer your deviseless voice from somewhere phone; a 3-D pad will float in front of you so you can punch emoticons; are you a gamer? Prepare to be your own warrior – electronic champions will be passé.

The mariner postulates simplistic examples that require huge processing capabilities – beyond even the latest in memory processing technology. To the chagrin of the mariner, privacy and security may be a memory as each of us becomes an amalgamated function to create integrated information.

Today, perhaps it is not a bubble collapse but just a gathering of the troops for the next invasion.

Ancient Mariner

Of Monkeys and Metamorphosis

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It’s too bad Joseph Campbell did not live to see a metamorphosis performed in a hospital operating room. Campbell had a clear understanding about consciousness, and its ability to press for life beyond duality. Metamorphosis is the experience of Jesus on the cross; Jesus is able to disassociate consciousness from the body – simply a container to feed the spirit. Pain, human history, and self-centeredness fall away.

A few days ago, it was announced that surgeons successfully transplanted an entire skull from one monkey to another. Immediately, so many questions filled the mariner’s head:

Given the first head’s disassociation from its body, did the first head experience metamorphosis?

Did the replacement head experience metamorphosis when it was removed from the contributing body? Was there confusion about the consciousness of self when it was associated with another body?

One can hope both monkeys were very close in size and confirmation else the replacement brain would assume that, more or less, this is like the other monkey and would issue muscle memory instructions apropos of the previous body. One can imagine that picking the nose may well be difficult.

It is common knowledge that both nurture and nature constitute the conditions of a primate body, brain, genetic propensities, and psychological behaviors. Is handedness not an issue for the new body of the transplanted skull? Monkeys grab things with all four limbs; this could be a life or death situation high in a tree.

But mariner squanders questions on the mechanics of brain-to-body management. What would Aristotle want to know? What would Freud want to know? If the new body was addicted to alcohol or good cigars, how would the transplanted brain deal with this?

If the contributing monkey liked parsnips but the new body didn’t, how would this be resolved?

We’ll have to wait for the interviews.

Not that the previous subject brings politics to mind – well, actually it does. Donald is joined by Sarah. Oh my, oh my! Sarah associates with Glenn. Oh my, oh my, oh my!!

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Oh my…

Ancient Mariner