The Morning Line – February 3 2016

Here’s the morning line out of Vegas:

Hillary Clinton 10/11 91%
Marco Rubio 3/1 33%
Donald Trump 7/1 14%
Bernie Sanders 8/1 12%
Ted Cruz 16/1 6%
Jeb Bush 50/1 2%
Michael Bloomberg 50/1 2%
Joe Biden 80/1 1.25%
Chris Christie 100/1 1%
John Kasich 200/1 ½%
Ben Carson 700/1 1/10 of Even less than less than 1%
Carly Fiorina 800/1 About the size of a human skin cell
Rand Paul 999/1 infinitesimal
Martin OMalley 250/1 Suspended campaign
Rick Santorum 999/1 Suspended campaign
Mike Huckabee 2000/1 Suspended campaign

Hillary held the same odds as always; interestingly, one bookie has taken bets for Hillary NOT to win the 2016 election at even odds. The biggest positive shift was in favor of Marco who jumped from 10/1 to 3/1, moving from fourth place to second. The biggest negative shift was Donald who dropped from 5/6 to 7/1 moving to third place. Ted continues to be unpopular with the betting crowd, staying in fifth place despite his win in Iowa; odds dropped from 12/1 to 16/1. Bernie held his odds but dropped one spot to fourth.

As to candidates with longer odds, most betting houses have stopped posting a morning line; the listed odds were taken from just two bookies.


Ancient Mariner

2 thoughts on “The Morning Line – February 3 2016

  1. I don’t know whether to place a bet or comment that apparently our Bernie caucuses as well as our common socialist principles did not win the day? It is truly a sad state when rationale wins over sentiment.

    • The mariner understands your distress dealing with rationality and sentiment simultaneously. Neither is substantive without the other. Betting at this early stage surely would be a bet in behalf of sentimentality. The rational side is to consider that currently Bernie is campaigning in the few states amenable to his rhetoric and democratic socialism. As he moves on to the south, and especially the iron and corn belts, In those regions, the electorate still is part of the old school image of the US: small government, Norman Rockwell, disdain for welfare, and leaders who speak in pragmatic terms.
      Bernie already has awakened the liberal side of our population and will continue to harass the campaign (and the silly press) in a manner to keep the liberal sentiment a key factor. His efforts, whether nominee or not, will draw a larger democratic vote.

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