Part of this post has been turned over to Guru, the alter ego that John Denver would have described as ‘Far out!’ Guru lives in a world of paradigms; there are no loose details – details are assigned to a paradigm then forgotten until they are needed. Unlike Chicken Little and Amos, who live in the conscious mind subject to experiences via the five senses, Guru lives in a subconscious part of the brain.

Mariner will ask Guru for his current thoughts in these times of endless chaos. Mariner apologizes to the reader in advance for answers that may be vague, unsatisfying, inadequate, or incomprehensible – as that is the nature of subconscious thought.

Mariner – Guru, the Middle East has been in a state of warring chaos for 25 years. What thoughts do you have about a situation that has no obvious solution?

Guru – Over the centuries, the Middle East has played the role of Grand Central Station for large migrations starting with the first migrations of early man out of Africa. A primary cause has been slowly changing, large weather patterns that affect availability of food and water. At least three weather related massive migrations occurred before documented history – events that likely populated Europe and the Far East. Slowly, during the 19^th and 20^th centuries, droughts have reduced food and water availability; this has prevented the Middle East from sharing the same growth and sophistication experienced by the West. Governments remained simplistic and nomadic. Even if there had not been political and physical violence, the time was ripe for another migration. Unfortunately, it was forced to occur quite painfully by destroying the region’s economy and culture in war.

The war itself is related to the discovery of oil, colonization, inadequate governance and continued international meddling that takes advantage of the Middle East’s relatively primitive culture. Islam is a manufactured cause to deal with the collapse of institutions, quality of life, and culture.

Mariner – Guru, the world economy seems frayed and dysfunctional. Why is the global economy stalled and further, what does the future hold in store?

Guru – The world is transitioning from the labor age to the automated age. Typically, chaos is present as an economy changes from one age to another. Also typical is the opportunity by entrepreneurs to take advantage of the new but undermanaged age by taking extravagant profits; these profits likely initiated economies that are plutocratic and gave international corporations the wealth to escape many human rights and safety requirements by splitting operations across several countries. The future is still clouded. The US already has engaged political and industrial activity associated with economic change but most of the world has not.

Mariner – The planet is suffering increasing stress from global warming. Two perspectives: why are conservatives denying the scientists and will the US be able to manage the rising shorelines and economic stress?

Guru – The perspectives are unrelated. Conservatives don’t like change as a general principle; in the US especially, Congress and many states are controlled by conservatives who don’t want the money bath [e.g., personal investment, lobby income, Citizens United] to stop. Nay saying scientific data is easier than defending profit-motivated government behavior.

As to the global warming issue, this makes Congressional profit taking insignificant. If the world’s nations cannot affect carbon dioxide production in ten years, the biosphere not only will lose thousands of species and disrupt the human food chain, it will create unstable weather conditions and the worst predictions of ocean increase, about nine feet, will require costs that may not be within national financial ceilings.

REFERENCE SECTION

A dose of realism about the return of manufacturing jobs is in an article on Nate Silver’s 538 website. See: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/manufacturing-jobs-are-never-coming-back/

If the reader is a serious puzzle solver – and the mariner means serious, Nate has a puzzle column. If you ever solve a puzzle, let the mariner know. See: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-you-best-the-mysterious-man-in-the-trench-coat/

Ancient Mariner

There was a bit of kickback on the Aljazeera article that was harsh in its opinion of Hillary. The mariner is not espousing any candidate over another; none induce the mariner’s advocacy. He may reference something that, although unpopular, is intellectually unique in some way. The joining of Hillary to Donald was unusual and written by an Iranian-American professor at Columbia University. It seems more logical to compare Donald to Bernie. Certainly another perspective for the liberal arts mind. Readers must admit that the media offers little intellectual fodder.

• – – –

A new analysis published in Nature – Climate Change magazine warns that 4 million people may be displaced in the US by rising seas during the next 100 years – half of them in Florida. The increase will be between 3 feet and 6 feet. The study says that sea levels are rising at the fastest rate in the last 28 centuries. Data already shows increasing sea levels have caused greater damage each year by flooding and heavy storms. It was estimated that a 6 foot increase would cost $14 trillion in relocation costs. See:

http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2961.epdf?referrer_access_token=GP821Wogcu_Rmb5dVHcQvNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NW5dzPCV1LQTM2JMQvXgeV5kcoIiVItcAo6QabUR9-178DTC5AmyL7sqoUXtYx2FydBJB3NZXi69rwMlAJSFnb4PbI1CrMlUnNDDLj1lRtE1FdsgdlaP7hfzAT8rce5yP_2UibeTtvtA4ujTyZbUPB_FVbsjW3DucGr5UgNyZCSSS7w1mBahLCuyC4ACswWAXMxUMoh0aWWSuLDAeQY8JD&tracking_referrer=www.nytimes.com

• – – –

GPS, the television show hosted by Fareed Zacharia, had Larry Summers as a guest. Larry was Bill Clinton’s Secretary of the Treasury. Mariner was confused more than informed. Fareed’s opening remarks touted the success of the US economy compared to all other countries with major economic profiles. His positive tone seemed to ignore the dissatisfaction of the followers of Donald and Bernie.

Donald espouses, more or less, a nationalist dissatisfaction and Bernie espouses dissatisfaction with an oligarchic economy. Needless to say, there are millions of followers between the two who feel put upon by government and do not feel that progress has been made in the economy. Fareed defended NAFTA, saying it had created a stable neighbor in Mexico whose government is rapidly becoming more democratic. Meanwhile, millions contend the US government is becoming less democratic.

While Mexico’s politics may be true in principle, the image of large corporations still moving out of the US on a regular basis is not one the working class appreciates. Mariner sees a disconnection between economic perspective and voter perspective. Further, to confuse the mariner more, Larry comes on and says US citizens have to spend more – even go into debt now at really inexpensive interest rates and not save so much. This is hard advice to millions of voters who are still hurting from the 2008 recession, student debt, and decreasing income as manufacturing continues to shrink in terms of good paying jobs.

• . . . .

Don’t tell Donald (or his followers) about the following story from Chicago reported in the American Journal of Transportation:

“Chicago’s transport authorities handed a $1.3 billion rail cars contract for the city’s “L” urban rail system to a unit of China’s CRRC Corp., the company’s second deal in the U.S. in 18 months.

The order is for 846 7000-series rail cars from CSR Sifang America JV, which submitted the lowest bid, Chicago Transport Authority said in a statement on its website Thursday. Prototypes for an initial order for 400 train cars are due in 2019 and expected to go into a service a year later after tests. As part of its winning bid, CSR Sifang will also invest $40 million to build a rail assembly facility in Chicago.

The deal is China’s second in the U.S., following the one China CNR Corp. won in October 2014 worth $567 million to supply trains for Boston’s subway system.

CNR and CSR Corp. subsequently merged last year to form CRRC Corp. in a bid to achieve greater economies of scale and compete more effectively in the global market. China Premier Li Keqiang is leading an overseas push by Chinese train equipment makers as part of a broader strategy to turn China into an advanced industrialized nation.”

It is certainly true that chaos reigns when there is a major culture shift in progress.

Ancient Mariner

From US Energy Information Administration:

“In 2012, 91 percent of coal consumed in the U.S. was used for 37 percent of total U.S. electric power generation. The remaining 8 percent was consumed for industrial purposes, including steel and cement manufacturing. Worldwide, electric power generation was also the largest consumer of coal. In 2011, the electricity sector consumed 62 percent, while global industrial coal consumption was approximately 33 percent. The remaining 5 percent was used in the commercial and residential sectors.”

Scientists have been putting the numbers together regarding industries that burn coal, especially electric power plants. The coal industry has promoted carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) solutions to reduce the release of Carbon into the atmosphere. This method uses Carbon extractors in the chimneys, compresses the Carbon and stores it deep underground. The coal industry has performed studies that suggest CCS can meet the 80% reduction by 2050 agreed to at the International Conference on Climate Change in 2015. However, recent independent research projects suggest the cost of CCS will be prohibitive – especially compared to the cost of replacing coal with renewable energy solutions.

Steve Skerlos, University of Michigan professor of mechanical, civil and environmental engineering, said “Policymakers need to stop wasting time hoping for technological silver bullets to sustain the status quo in the electric sector and quickly accelerate the transition from coal to renewables, or possibly, natural gas power plants with CCS.” Recent cost analysis indicated that current, flawed projections peg the fuel costs of a CCS-equipped coal plant at $29 million per year more than a conventional plant. The new University of Michigan research calculates the additional fuel cost at closer to $126 million per year.

Shifting gears from cost analysis to Federal policy makers, mariner suspects that replacing coal altogether will languish in Congressional committees until 2050. The new cost analysis not only makes cap and trade moot, it makes coal moot as well. The current Congress, bought and paid for by the coal industry and every other fossil fuel corporation, will never touch converting coal power plants to renewable energy solutions. The reader must put this issue on the stack of reasons why the nation needs a new, contemporary Congress.

From USA TODAY:

“Alison Lundergan Grimes and Natalie Tennant, two Democrats from coal-producing states running for the U.S. Senate, vow they’ll fight the Obama administration’s proposal to cut carbon dioxide emissions.

Grimes, the Kentucky secretary of State, issued a statement saying the new Environmental Protection Agency rule to cut emissions from existing power plants by 30% by 2030 “is more proof that Washington isn’t working for Kentucky.”

“Coal keeps the lights on in the Commonwealth, providing a way for thousands of Kentuckians to put food on their tables,” Grimes said. “When I’m in the U.S. Senate, I will fiercely oppose the president’s attack on Kentucky’s coal industry because protecting our jobs will be my No. 1 priority.”

It seems that rebalancing the power structure of the US in order to put global issues ahead of parochial issues will be a long, bitter and expensive battle. It is true that coal is a major cog in America’s economy. Many jobs will be affected. The national infrastructure will undergo massive reorganization reverberating across power grids, transportation, manufacturing, and renewable energy. Significant change will reach into homes as the coal power grid shrinks and renewable energy emerges.

The US economy and the workers can’t afford to lose coal jobs for any length of time. How will the workers of an entire industry be reallocated in the nation’s workforce? Logistically, how will immense sums of money be available?

Taking care of Mother Earth turns out to be more expensive and troublesome than expected. A new natural gas power plant with CCS just opened near Houston. We will know soon how cleanly and how expensively this power plant provides electricity.

• – – –

Turning to the campaign for President, an odd article about Trump versus Clinton is in the Aljazeera newsletter. The article is worth a read for perspective. See:

http://www.aljazeera.com//indepth/opinion/2016/03/salesman-politicians-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-160306120204257.html?utm_source=Al+Jazeera+English+Newsletter+%7C+Weekly&utm_campaign=fdab870200-weekly_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e427298a68-fdab870200-224505437

Another perspective is from Bill Moyers’ website. See:

http://billmoyers.com/story/blowing-the-biggest-political-story-of-the-last-fifty-years/

Ancient Mariner