Friday Update

Let’s check in on our vector analysis of the Presidential Campaign: (Nate Silver) – Nate provides three projections:

Polls only (more than 350!) present odds of Hillary winning 69.1 to 30.9.

Projection today without future analysis present odds of Hillary winning 75.5 to 24.5.

Polls and forecast combined present Hillary winning 71.0 to 29.0

Electoral College – A vote cast today would have Hillary winning 347 to 191; 270 to win.

Battleground States – Trend has Donald slipping. The 11 state polling averages:

Colorado          46 to 35 Hillary

Florida            45.4 to 42.4 Hillary

Iowa               41.4 to 40.4 virtually tied

Michigan          41.4 to 34.6 Hillary

Nevada            44 to 32 Hillary

New Hampshire 43.4 to 46.4 Donald

North Carolina   45 to 41 Hillary

Ohio                 45.2 to 41.6 Hillary

Pennsylvania     48.2 to 39.8 Hillary

Virginia             48.8 to 37.8 Hillary

Wisconsin         45.2 to 38.8 Hillary

Down Ballot Races – CBS says Democrats have a weak bench (full article )

“WASHINGTON — Senate Democrats, aware of the dead weight that Donald J. Trump has placed on their vulnerable Republican colleagues, can taste a reclaimed majority.

But just as Senate Republicans blew their chances in 2010 and 2012 before finally taking control in 2014, Democrats find themselves hobbled by less-than-stellar candidates in races that could make the difference in winning a majority.

In Pennsylvania, Katie McGinty, a relatively unknown former federal official who has never held elective office, is ahead in polls but lags Hillary Clinton’s large lead in the state. In Florida, a nasty primary between two flawed candidates could harm the Democrats’ chance to unseat Senator Marco Rubio.

Several high-profile Democrats turned down the chance to challenge Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina before they settled on a civil liberties lawyer, Deborah Ross, who is not necessarily a good fit for suburban voters there. Catherine Cortez Masto, a Democrat and former state attorney general now running for an open seat in Nevada, has also failed to catch fire.

To challenge 82-year-old Senator Charles E. Grassley of Iowa, Democrats settled on 72-year-old Patty Judge. Senator Rob Portman’s Democratic challenger in Ohio, former Gov. Ted Strickland, is 75, an easy target for Mr. Portman’s taunting nickname, “Retread Ted.”

Local Newspapers and Magazines – the reader’s choice.

Using our weighted sources, we know that Hillary is well ahead but the down ballot may not produce a typical “coattail” of same party wins.

What did Donald and Hillary say on the boob box? Do we care? Keeping track of our weighted evaluations is more accurate and more informative than the kindergarten seen on cable news.

Sometimes, while we are poking around, we discover a nugget. For example the interview of Barack by Fareed Zakaria on GPS made many helter-skelter issues seem rational – all things given.

Ancient Mariner

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.