Candidate Probabilities: Polls versus Bettors

Here are the poll comparisons between the candidates for President. These values are from Nate Silver’s website,

Hillary versus Donald   (NBC)        51% – 38%         Hillary +13

Hillary versus Donald   (ABC)        50% – 41%         Hillary +9

Hillary versus Ted        (NBC)        47% – 45%         Hillary +2

Hillary versus Marco    (NBC)        46% – 46%         TIE

Bernie versus Donald   (NBC)       55% – 37%         Bernie +18

Bettors, who back their prediction with cash, have more confidence in Hillary – betting she will win versus anyone 65% of the time. The full morning line is below.

The Morning Line March 10 2016

Here’s the morning line out of Vegas:

Hillary Clinton 8/15 65%
Donald Trump 10/3 23%
Bernie Sanders 8/1 11%
Ted Cruz 20/1 5%
John Kasich 33/1 3%
Marco Rubio 50/1 2%
Joe Biden 100/1 1%
Mitt Romney 200/1 .05%
Paul Ryan 500/1 .02%
Chris Christie N/A Suspended campaign
Martin O’Malley N/A Suspended campaign
Ben Carson N/A Suspended campaign
Carly Fiorina N/A Suspended campaign
Rand Paul N/A Suspended campaign
Rick Santorum N/A Suspended campaign
Jeb Bush N/A Suspended campaign
Michael Bloomberg N/A Suspended campaign
Mike Huckabee N/A Suspended campaign

Hillary is still the favorite but her odds have dropped significantly. [However, if you bet today, your profit would be $53.33 instead of just $1 if you had bet last week] The odds on Marco are noticeably different than the polls suggest; he dropped to 6th place and is a long shot. It looks like it will be Donald versus Hillary if delegate votes stay predictable. Ted is still unpopular with the betting crowd but moves up one slot to 4th place. Kasich is not a serious contender among the bettors. Bernie stays in the mix but the super delegate count is against him.

Ancient Mariner

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