Are the Primaries Forcing Change?

On January 9, mariner wrote a post that suggested Donald is a ‘reagent.’ A reagent is a soap, acetone, alcohol, metals used in hydrolysis – any chemical or solution that cleans something. Soap in the laundry removes dirt from clothes. Paint remover removes paint. Acetone removes fingernail polish, etc.

The mariner’s philosophical alter ego, Guru, speculated that Donald would dismantle the Republican Party very much like paint remover removes paint. Even in these early primaries, one can see how Donald is splitting a significant number of republicans (and some democrats) away from the traditional hierarchy of the Republican Party.

If Donald remains the front runner through Super Tuesday primaries, he already will have changed the power structure by creating populist conservatives who are not satisfied with the establishment side of the Republican Party. On the democratic side, both Hillary and Bernie are advocating populist solutions as well. It may be that there will be enough change in Congress – whether new members or members who respond to the new populism – that collaboration will return to Congress via the newly formed wings of both parties. The longer Donald holds forth, the more influential the new conservative wing will be. Should he actually be nominated, the old establishment will be permanently changed – as if a reagent had washed away the old power structure.

Donald as a reagent is speculation at this point but one cannot ignore his domination of the early primaries.

The time remaining until the election in November will be entertaining: Hillary is a detail person, Bernie is a visionary, and Donald is an amoral pragmatist. If Donald holds a lead in delegates through May, the republican super delegates may well force a brokered convention. Marco and Ted will split establishment voters; neither will have enough delegates to power through the entire primary season unless a brokered convention selects one of them.

All this being said, it is early in the game and the mariner’s speculation isn’t worth a lot.

Ancient Mariner

 

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