Category Archives: Economy

A deeper interpretation

Posted on by
Reply

Pondering here could balloon into an uncontrollable pile of useless words. Nevertheless, mariner will take a shot at a large question he has that has interpretive references going all the way back to the Assyrians 4,000 years before Jesus. The question:

Where did Donald Trump come from? How has Donald Trump dominated world politics? Why has the nation tolerated Donald Trump? Why is he here?

To save words and wandering, mariner takes broadly based interpretations of history, some concepts from sociology and economics and some perspectives on the human species.

The historically continuous cycle of change. If anything moves, the situation has changed. It could be a galaxy or a molecule; it could be the weather or a meteor; it could be the collapse of an economy or the lack of potable water; it could be anxiety about the security of humans or the desire for personal independence; it could be a rapid 100-year sprint from horse drawn vehicles to space ships and intelligent robots. Two points can be made: First, any change disturbs the balance of resources – there will be losers and winners. Second, any change redefines reality; the rules will change or possibly rules won’t exist at all. Some quick analogies:

  •  industrial Revolution created opportunity for massive population increase
  • discovery of the American continents created opportunity to experiment with worldwide economies and launched the Western Alliance that dominates world politics today
  • emergence of medicine doubled the lifespan of humans
  • discovery of electricity permitted family-based cultures to pursue independent subcultures
  • internal combustion provoked massive expansion of commerce
  • electronic communication introduced political power without a need to be directly associated with citizens
  • human-like computer functions that can replace humans
  • nuclear weapons established permanent and credible threat to the human race

Every change has its winners and losers. So there have been many wars and cultural disruptions in all these examples. In fact, the 19th century has a nickname : the century of war.

The biological circumstances required by all living species is ‘survival of the fittest’. It is nature’s way. Famously, and quite accurately, Lord Acton in 1887 said: “Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” ABBA has a song called ‘The Winner Takes it All’ The words are romantically motivated but romance can be easily removed to see selfishness as the driver. Let’s face it: the economic philosophy of change is to be lucky enough to have the winning lottery ticket. Think Julius Caesar, Bill Gates, John Deere, Google and the multi-million-dollar class. Only the lucky move on. Remember Euprimate? The little mouse-like fellow was the first primate. But at some point it didn’t have a winning ticket so one doesn’t see Euprimate around anymore. How long will sapiens/neanderthal have a winning ticket?

The Human Species. Anything or any event that can create human wealth seems to be a winning ticket as the world changes. The losers are the extra people the planet can’t support and the biosphere that is over-consumed to create wealth.

So there is danger afoot: any change that can be more efficient than humans has a good chance of holding the winning ticket for the species. As far as Donald and others like him, they lucked into wealth. Many of these ‘lucky’ folks don’t understand the economics of change and continue to consume the resources that are short in supply and that likely will expedite further change. The wealthy are trying to modify wealth to protect against future change. The change has nothing to do with money. They have bought suntan lotion to protect against hurricanes.

Ancient Mariner

 

Bits from home

Posted on by
Reply

Mariner’s philologist friend and he have a special dictionary of stressed or highly truncated words that are intriguing. His friend’s latest contribution is ‘supwier’. Usually, mariner gives the reader time to deduce these aberrations for themselves but supwier may require immediate assistance:

SUPWIER (supp’ wi-err) — “What’s up with her?”

A view of mariner’s garden will observe that it has not rained in his town for more than two weeks so he has had to water his nine little gardens. The plants, however, have not been fooled by temperatures in the nineties and have begun to close shop for the season – only special autumn flowers and every known weed continue as usual. As all the garden catalogues suggest, now is a good time to plant the brassica family of green vegetables.

Since establishing four new toad ponds (trays), his garden looks more like a zoo. Coupled with the ripe pecan tree, squirrels abound. The countless crowds of sparrows and wrens have discovered every pond and have new neighborhood pubs to frequent. A new visitor is a feral Aegean house cat (grey with vague stripes).

Mariner calls on his religious friends to take up the slack and immoral behavior of our governments regarding the homeless and indigent; they who have been viciously and without cause cut off from food. One would think our destitute citizens understand that living in a Gaza world is normal. Remember that the word ‘convenient’ is not part of the process. Do something today!

Ancient Mariner

 

 

He is a sick man not fit to represent me

Posted on by
1

Trump Canceled 94 Million Pounds of Food Aid in the United States.

The cancellations began in mid-May, when over 100 orders of 2% milk bound for 31 states were halted.

The records show 4,304 canceled deliveries between May and September across the 50 states, Puerto Rico and D.C. Each truck here represents a delivery that would never arrive to feed communities.

All told, the deliveries accounted for nearly 94 million pounds of food. The true loss is likely greater, food banks said, because not all of the year’s deliveries had been scheduled.

The Trump administration canceled 10 orders for the food bank totaling over $400,000 of pork, chicken, cheese, dried cranberries, dried plums, milk and eggs, records show. The food bank has struggled to keep up with demand following the cuts and a decrease in private donations. Staff told ProPublica they used to distribute 25-pound packages of food, but over the summer, some packages shrank to about half of that weight.

Reported by ProPublica, a nonprofit, publically supported news agency.

This is the same person who sells Trump-branded Holy Bibles.

Ancient Mariner

 

Education in an AI world

Posted on by
Reply

Walton Family Foundation and Gallup’s latest Teaching for Tomorrow report finds that while most teachers engage in professional development, the most beneficial opportunities — like peer collaboration — are often engaged in at a lower rate. At the same time, many teachers lack the classroom resources and staffing support needed to do their jobs effectively.

This report from Walton Family Foundation is a common perspective about the future of education. Education, like medicine, community support for the indigent, and even the nation’s governments – all are subject to the fate of history, changing society and real world confrontation. It is true that education as a concept is under great stress; it is true that the the recent plague interrupted an entire generation’s sense of decorum in the classroom; it is true that internet communications have reshaped the center of informative social dialogue; it is true that a slowly decaying form of government is incompetent in its service to the nation’s educational need and other government-supported cultural need as well.

Mariner suspects the largest impact, especially in colleges, is books. Who needs them? He has written in past posts to the blog about why we need education, methods of education and even the management of education. In this post he focuses on how  humans must be educated in the future and even now as great shifts of the planet, technology and behavioral environments are bouncing about in the winds of change.

Education, in particular, is easily affected by culture and innovation. Note the following examples and how quickly and fully these examples modified ‘normal’ education practices.

֎  In 1910 only 79% of children enrolled in schools. Only 11 percent of all children between ages fourteen and seventeen were enrolled in high school, and only 8.8% graduated. By 1950, the age of fossil fuel emerged, two world wars occurred, and an economic restructuring changed the social structure of society. Education statistics immediately changed. In 1950 84% of children enrolled in school and high school graduation leaped to 59%. The GI benefit of a paid college education thrust colleges into the general public sphere and bachelor degrees were economically available.

֎  Ezra Stiles, a former president of Yale University, died nearly 230 years ago. It is Mr. Stiles that we owe the grading system that has prevailed since. His clear intention was to publicly rank and sort students according to their achievement, not to give them feedback on their learning or to suggest how they might improve before the next exam. This kind of class ranking was a mechanism for conveying status and privilege (or withholding them), oftentimes mirroring the social structures of the world beyond the ivy-covered university walls. (Some suggest this intent created the ‘woke’ class).

♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦

Whether we accept it or not, Mother Nature outfits each and all her species with all the survival skills and behaviors needed to sustain a normal lifestyle for each specific species. In the case of mammals and many other branches of evolution as well, Mother outfitted them with ’emotion’. Emotion is the way humans integrate with one another, learn social values, develop compassion and reinforce safety. Emotion permits bonding not only to others but to the world around them.

Mariner looked back to our forefathers, the early Homo sapiens and the Neanderthals. No books. There was lots of art in caves, on stones and wood, even on pottery; perhaps art is a primitive form of writing, of documenting emotion.

Our forefathers learned through social bonding the need to build homes for shelter without the benefit of watching This Old House on PBS or the dozen books mariner bought in order to build his house. These primitives learned by watching, sharing and caring. – Call it peer collaboration.

Instructors of any subject no longer need to read a lot of books and be the only source of truth and knowledge. That form of respect is gone because students don’t need books any more. However, indeed very important, is the fact that today a student’s emotions are needed in order to build knowledge for survival. Instructors must use tools out of the emotions kit to build a world value system that is not available in today’s society.

Ancient Mariner

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where the West began

Posted on by
1

Mariner’s normal inclination is to see the world through the eye of a sociologist. The core of sociology is the study of results from human social patterns and aspects of culture associated with everyday life.

During the last few months in a very unhurried way he seems to be researching the Middle East as the birthplace of nationalism, the birthplace of comprehensive theology and the first region to openly implement neutral colonialism – all significant roots that support today’s cultural operations. What makes it even more interesting is the existence of East/West trade routes and the eventual social and economic incursion by Greece, Rome and Russia.

At its height, the Persian Empire encompassed all of the Middle East: modern-day Iran, Egypt, Turkey, and parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It was also known as the Achaemenid Empire. To make it convenient to this post, the term ‘PE’ will be the euphemism. In ancient times PE was controlled by czarist kings who proclaimed themselves Gods and ruled over the most brutal nations in history. It is fascinating when one realizes that virtually the entire social/political/economic/religious structure of today’s Western Alliance began in the Persian Empire.

Mariner’s favorite example is the first creation of an independent supreme God which began in Lycia, a small nation in the PE across the Aegean Sea from Greece. Her name was Cybele, the female god of creation [BLOG Apr 7, 2016] who later existed as Rhea, Mother of Gods in Greece, then as Sybil, Mother Of Gods in Rome, to Mary, Mother of Jesus in Christianity. In addition, many of today’s Jewish/Christian rituals and religious practices are similar to rituals in Zoroastrianism – the first unified religion in the PE – a time when Israel was one of the nations of PE.

The other creation of note, at least for this post, is the birth of colonialism. One of the  PE Kings, Cyrus II or Cyrus the Great [mentioned in last post], allowed all the nations within the PE to carry on with local practices in religion and daily life. This included allowing those nations to make trade deals between member nations with a general oversight from PE. If this insight were stretched a bit, it could also be the origin of republics – just like the United States!

Mariner apologizes for making the reader suffer such detailed stuff. It keeps him occupied while coping with another PE creation: Donald.

Ancient Mariner

 

 

 

 

Tuvalu

Posted on by
Reply

A fascinating report in the AOL news strip gives an insight into the future of nationalism. Within this century, the Island nation of Tuvalu (9 coral atolls in the Pacific) is about to go under the ocean and completely disappear. The nation of Tuvalu already has set up political relationships with Australia and New Zealand that will allow Tuvalu citizens to live in these partner nations but sustain a Tuvalu political structure complete with its own voting rights and a shared economy.

Mariner has been struggling to find a transitional model for nations moving into the future of international economy and having to share sustainable agricultural regions; already national boundaries are of dwindling importance because of the Internet.

But Tuvalu has not taken the path of economic conversion. Rather, they have invented a new way to sustain nationality via social identification and a political structure that doesn’t need its own territory to exist. Their national model much more clearly defines how nationalism will transition to globalism. It is a truly insightful article that has broadened mariner’s thoughts about the future.

A quick and pleasant read with an extremely insightful perception of the future. See:

https://www.aol.com/disappearing-island-nation-plans-exist-152004992.html

Ancient Mariner

 

Jobs threatened by AI

Posted on by
Reply

On the CBS website, mariner found a detailed analysis of what types of jobs may be most threatened by automation. An easy way to understand the impact is to consider how the Internet has changed the reader’s shopping habits – what ever happened to malls?

Impact from GPT4 [Pre-trained software capable of dialogue and creative writing – including songs]

Customer services representatives
Accountants and auditors
Software developers
Secretaries and administrative assistants

Overall

Computer programmers
Financial managers
Accountants and auditors
Sales representatives (wholesale and manufacturing)

Automation

General and operations managers
Accountants and auditors
Receptionists and information clerks

Augmentation

Chief Executives
Maintenance and repair workers
Registered Nurses
Computer Systems managers

Mariner would offer an outlook if he could – no one can. We are in a fog without a map and must confront dysfunctional government, unbridled corporate behavior, tendency toward war as a solution and a dissatisfied planet..

Armageddon proceeds

Ancient Mariner

The new job market

Posted on by
Reply

There seems to be increasing news coverage about the job market, especially when comparing past, present and future markets as presented by government figures. The presumption from the White House is that the tariffs will restrict foreign manufacture and allow US manufacturing to grow substantially.

On the other hand, banking, investment and private institutions don’t feel as secure about the effect of the tariffs. They speak to the influence of ChatGPT already in the marketplace which is affecting employment today. In mariner’s local newspaper he reads that a nearby river town’s pubic library plans to replace a desk librarian with a bot that can check in and check out materials. When McDonald’s is forced to modify products and prices in order to sustain sales, something must be afoot.

Further, the public has an innate feeling that one had better be frugal – an attitude that contributes to recession. It’s likely that the persistent news coverage is about closing branches and even closing large stores so they can reinvent their fiscal model.

The White House is doing everything it can to bolster financial reports – even to the extent of disassembling the Federal Reserve so the interest rate can be lowered.

While it is true that the giant manufacturers and retail powerhouses can respond to the tariff situation by offering more jobs, that seems not to represent the closing of many shops and small industries because of the new market, tax regulations and AI.

It appears the economy will be dancing on thin ice for the next year or two. One can hope for a new approach after the midterms. Amos insists that mariner mention the collapsing US influence in world markets.

Ancient Mariner

 

 

A genuine news ‘capsule’

Posted on by
Reply

Greetings readers, noting a change in weather patterns in the Midwest. In this morning’s email, mariner found an unusually brief but profound news wrap up from the Associated Press:

“In the news today: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization – led by Russia, China, and India – could emerge as a challenge to America’s global leadership; a major landslide has become one of the deadliest natural disasters in Sudan’s history; and the legal impacts of President Donald Trump sending National Guard troops into US cities. Also, scientists are helping a red-legged frog return to Southern California.”¹

It would be difficult to describe as briefly as written so many global issues of such great importance and diversity. Even a little known frog species speaks of the massive extinction occurring around the planet

• The SCO meeting of the Eastern World speaks to an evolution-like rotation of global dominance. The West’s supremacy began to emerge in the Victorian Era starting in the mid 1800s and emerged a century later as the leading political, philosophical, economic and social leaders of the world . It took an age of colonial economics, two world wars and the wealth that only a rich country sitting on the richest continent in the world could provide to finalize the shift from the eastern nations to the Western Alliance.

The winds of change suggest the next evolution is beginning. As with every other evolution, it is accelerated as new technology, new economics and shifting global issues have come together.

• The disaster in Sudan is only the latest example in a long list of planetary effects caused by multiple-century movement of the Solar System, especially expedited by global warming. There are disappearing ice shelves at both poles, platonic shifts loosened by a warming planet and severe undercutting of commercial farming and availability of potable water as a warmer atmosphere begins to reshape global weather patterns. Add in the effects on global economy caused by rising oceans.

• Then there is Donald. The American citizen has proven that something isn’t right with the nation because he was, in fact, elected by them. It is noteworthy that a terrible, dictatorial leader is part of the evolutionary shifts in world power from Ivan the Terrible (1547-1584) to Adolf Hitler to Putin to Donald – plus a dozen or so in smaller nations. Their job is to destroy the old system so transformations can begin anew in the new age of electronics, diminishing wealth, overpopulation and international difficulties – after the dictators disappear.

• The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History” by Elizabeth Kolbert, was published in 2014. Through detailed research of current and recent disappearances of every kind of creature driven into extinction by a changing world shaped almost single handed by humans, 16,000 species have disappeared. Very important but hardly noticed is that the rate of extinction is increasing.

Historians and scientists have the audacity to create their own age: the Anthropocene Age. Is this world situation something to be proud of?

Ancient Mariner

We need a culture map

Posted on by
Reply

Every generation has its own lifestyles, a combination of habits, behavioral perceptions and historical benchmarks. For example, how many of us use pen and paper to write long letters? How many of us realize how much of a cultural shift is represented by Rosie the Riveter, the icon representing a shift of women in the workforce from 12 million to 20 million by 1944. Walk through the years with Benny Goodman, Ella Fitzgerald, Molly Bee, Frank Sinatra, Elvis, Nat King Cole, Peter, Paul and Mary, ABBA and Taylor Swift; how many of us have a microwave? How many years did it take to shift from calf-length skirts to black stretch pants?

And within just one generation, who stills types their letters on a typewriter? In fact, who still writes letters (200 words) to family members? Facebook takes care of letters today. Everything, every person from childhood to today is linked to you and vice versa. Want to know what’s happening with Uncle John? Facebook has it all. Just push a button and say, “Handle it”.

There is no avoidance of the fact that in the four most recent generations, each generation is living in a different world. Not just the normal generational shift that occurs as we age but so different that if, indeed, the world were a stage, a different show would be showing for each generation.

From the Silent Generation (1928-1945) to Generation Z (1997-2010), the entire planet has moved from an atmosphere of ‘war makes power’ where the west won control as the world’s political, social and scientific leaders, to an atmosphere of a planet falling short of resources, disruptive climate and causing economic stress to the point that it is a common opinion to stop raising beef because of its cost both to producers and to the environment.

Industrially, in just 75 years technology has moved human behavior to an unknown experience – promoting television in the 1940s to smartphones today. A central force that modifies human behavior is the Internet – a science which remains unbridled today and already evidences different behavioral values in human society.;

Metaphorically, we live on a world with no compass, no directional indicators, no rationality. We are encased in a fog. We have boarded a carnival ride about which we know nothing. Times are changing like they never have in living history.

Our emergency pack should include the basics: community participation; family allegiance and support; eliminate debt by living more frugally; be aware of resource management (less CO2 and avoiding plastic are big issues now); avoid depending on disruptive leaders who promise quick solutions – there are no quick solutions. FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) is broke and the climate is becoming more boisterous – have an alternative planned.

Ancient Mariner