Category Archives: Agriculture

Measuring the fog

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Readers are aware of mariner’s concerns about the future. Specifically, there are four global phenomena that are trying to make serious changes to the status quo of human life and to the planet.

The first to be measured is population. It was estimated by the United Nations to have exceeded eight billion in mid-November 2022. It took around 300,000 years of human prehistory and history for the human population to reach one billion and only 218 more years from there to reach 8 billion.

The global population is still increasing, but there is significant uncertainty about its long-term trajectory due to changing fertility and mortality rates.The United Nations projects between 9 and 10 billion people by 2050 and gives an 80% confidence interval of 10–12 billion by the end of the 21st century with a growth rate by then of zero.

This pattern of accelerated birth rates hits a point of psychosomatic collapse where the population begins to fall. This behavior also was proven in population studies with mice back in the 1960s. Those mouse studies also showed a societal collapse into two classes: a few very stable families where some family members served as border guards and, by mouse cage standards, were very wealthy. The other class being subject to mob violence, constant fighting, killing and an indifference toward newborns.

If population were an isolated phenomenon, it would be comparatively simple to manage. However, it becomes part of today’s fog because population is related to economics, habitat and behavior of the planet – as each of the four are integrated with the other three.

Hence the fog. Will the planet ignore human viability and destroy the balance of the surface with heat, storms and mass extinction or will the planet be influenced by dollars because there aren’t enough worldly resources to sustain modern economics as we have known it? The relationship between habitat and population is close.

Have humans made it too expensive to be the only creature who needs a fancy toilet, a water tower and septic system along side piped in fresh water just to pee? The industrial/technical age has created large economies at great expense to the habitat. It used to be instead of consuming millions of acres for grazing giant herds of beef, transportation and factory processing at local populations, that a person could buy fresh beef, lamb and chicken from a local butcher shop requiring only a dozen or so workers from farmer to customer.

Which causes are hurt the most of the four – economy, habitat or over population? Mariner hasn’t mentioned global warming.

Climate change is big in the news today because in just a few years, big cities, massive industrial centers and land itself will be destroyed.

So which should humans fix first? It looks like AI will tell the remaining pseudo humans the answers.

It’s all a big fog.

Ancient Mariner

How long since you foraged?

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If one isn’t sure that evolution is at play in the way Homo sapiens is evolving, consider foraging.

Many of us are familiar with the nomadic model of foraging. Most kinds of animals forage today. In parts of Africa, animals with hooves must migrate hundreds of miles to accommodate seasonal shifts in drought. “Cave man” lived on what it could catch and kill along with a surprising cuisine of indigenous plants. “Going to the store” meant scrounging in the woods or spending most of a day (sometimes more) hunting smaller animals or collaborating with other Cave Men to catch some protein.

Many thousands of years later Homo learned to grow his own food. Even in the nineteenth century, a significant percentage of Homos grew their own sustenance. However, rather quickly in the last two centuries, Homo has left foot-bound self-sufficiency behind. Homo learned to use a horse – not the first interdependent relationship between species.

Moving along quickly, the horse, then the train, then automobiles, then airplanes, then cruise ships – all had an impact on human foraging. It wasn’t long before foraging meant hunting for a grocery store and even special sharing (like leopards do) in restaurants.

Restaurants have been a mainstay for quite a while but evolution never stops. Homo foraging is pushing restaurants out of business by replacing an in-house meal with food orders delivered by organizations like Grubhub. A common effect on evolution is disease; COVID really pushed delivery services even to include foraging for grocery stores.

Already evolving in delivery services is a humanoid that looks like a minion. This likely will send restaurants the way of shopping malls and storefronts. Just let Alexa know and she’ll do the foraging for you.

It is a common speculation that future phases of evolution will allow the ancestors of Cave Man to sit or lie about while humanoids assume the responsibility for evolution in general, including work, leisure, foraging and social dependency. Perhaps a regenerative physicianoid will discover a drug that prevents bedsores.

Does anyone remember having to forage for a gopher for dinner? Among the greenery on the side of the road, which plants are okay to eat and which plants will poison you?

At least Homos know they will join the other 16,000 extinct creatures that have passed during the Anthropocene Epoch.

Ancient Mariner

 

More about self containment

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Mariner felt good reading the AXIOS piece about analog bags referenced in the last post. In his own romantic naturalist mind, he can see a correlation between a mindset focused on self survival in an AI world and the same mindset focused on chopping enough firewood to keep warm overnight in a world without electricity. Is this mindset Homo’s way of dealing with Nature’s rule about survival of the fittest?

No one can deny the violent change happening today. Mariner did a test watch of broadcast news on television yesterday – something he has refrained from doing for some time. It was frightening! The world’s governments falter under the planet’s total disruption; unbridled consumption of the planet’s resources increases every day; economic transition into a computer-owned financial world wanders aimlessly without regard for social ethics; violence grows in every corner of the world.

It is time to assure ourselves that we are practicing survival skills.

Given the unbridled power of intelligent computing, Homo may suffer greatly as a species unless they develop survival skills that keep AI contained.  Governments and corporations are not focused on human survival or even individual rights. Each of us must develop skills that offset the humongous waves of invasion by AI. One way is to detach daily behavior from social media and Internet-driven guidance on personal matters. The analog bag is an important example although a tiny one.

Perhaps more committed behavior to community activity or an active hobby that distracts one from global travesty at least momentarily is a survival skill. Perhaps taking an educational course may switch on an independently thinking mind. The objective is to use one’s own brain to evaluate survival as much as possible – given the disorganized world is everywhere.

Who knows, when it’s all over one survival skill may be chopping wood to keep warm.

Ancient Mariner

 

A deeper interpretation

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Pondering here could balloon into an uncontrollable pile of useless words. Nevertheless, mariner will take a shot at a large question he has that has interpretive references going all the way back to the Assyrians 4,000 years before Jesus. The question:

Where did Donald Trump come from? How has Donald Trump dominated world politics? Why has the nation tolerated Donald Trump? Why is he here?

To save words and wandering, mariner takes broadly based interpretations of history, some concepts from sociology and economics and some perspectives on the human species.

The historically continuous cycle of change. If anything moves, the situation has changed. It could be a galaxy or a molecule; it could be the weather or a meteor; it could be the collapse of an economy or the lack of potable water; it could be anxiety about the security of humans or the desire for personal independence; it could be a rapid 100-year sprint from horse drawn vehicles to space ships and intelligent robots. Two points can be made: First, any change disturbs the balance of resources – there will be losers and winners. Second, any change redefines reality; the rules will change or possibly rules won’t exist at all. Some quick analogies:

  •  industrial Revolution created opportunity for massive population increase
  • discovery of the American continents created opportunity to experiment with worldwide economies and launched the Western Alliance that dominates world politics today
  • emergence of medicine doubled the lifespan of humans
  • discovery of electricity permitted family-based cultures to pursue independent subcultures
  • internal combustion provoked massive expansion of commerce
  • electronic communication introduced political power without a need to be directly associated with citizens
  • human-like computer functions that can replace humans
  • nuclear weapons established permanent and credible threat to the human race

Every change has its winners and losers. So there have been many wars and cultural disruptions in all these examples. In fact, the 19th century has a nickname : the century of war.

The biological circumstances required by all living species is ‘survival of the fittest’. It is nature’s way. Famously, and quite accurately, Lord Acton in 1887 said: “Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” ABBA has a song called ‘The Winner Takes it All’ The words are romantically motivated but romance can be easily removed to see selfishness as the driver. Let’s face it: the economic philosophy of change is to be lucky enough to have the winning lottery ticket. Think Julius Caesar, Bill Gates, John Deere, Google and the multi-million-dollar class. Only the lucky move on. Remember Euprimate? The little mouse-like fellow was the first primate. But at some point it didn’t have a winning ticket so one doesn’t see Euprimate around anymore. How long will sapiens/neanderthal have a winning ticket?

The Human Species. Anything or any event that can create human wealth seems to be a winning ticket as the world changes. The losers are the extra people the planet can’t support and the biosphere that is over-consumed to create wealth.

So there is danger afoot: any change that can be more efficient than humans has a good chance of holding the winning ticket for the species. As far as Donald and others like him, they lucked into wealth. Many of these ‘lucky’ folks don’t understand the economics of change and continue to consume the resources that are short in supply and that likely will expedite further change. The wealthy are trying to modify wealth to protect against future change. The change has nothing to do with money. They have bought suntan lotion to protect against hurricanes.

Ancient Mariner

 

A genuine news ‘capsule’

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Greetings readers, noting a change in weather patterns in the Midwest. In this morning’s email, mariner found an unusually brief but profound news wrap up from the Associated Press:

“In the news today: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization – led by Russia, China, and India – could emerge as a challenge to America’s global leadership; a major landslide has become one of the deadliest natural disasters in Sudan’s history; and the legal impacts of President Donald Trump sending National Guard troops into US cities. Also, scientists are helping a red-legged frog return to Southern California.”¹

It would be difficult to describe as briefly as written so many global issues of such great importance and diversity. Even a little known frog species speaks of the massive extinction occurring around the planet

• The SCO meeting of the Eastern World speaks to an evolution-like rotation of global dominance. The West’s supremacy began to emerge in the Victorian Era starting in the mid 1800s and emerged a century later as the leading political, philosophical, economic and social leaders of the world . It took an age of colonial economics, two world wars and the wealth that only a rich country sitting on the richest continent in the world could provide to finalize the shift from the eastern nations to the Western Alliance.

The winds of change suggest the next evolution is beginning. As with every other evolution, it is accelerated as new technology, new economics and shifting global issues have come together.

• The disaster in Sudan is only the latest example in a long list of planetary effects caused by multiple-century movement of the Solar System, especially expedited by global warming. There are disappearing ice shelves at both poles, platonic shifts loosened by a warming planet and severe undercutting of commercial farming and availability of potable water as a warmer atmosphere begins to reshape global weather patterns. Add in the effects on global economy caused by rising oceans.

• Then there is Donald. The American citizen has proven that something isn’t right with the nation because he was, in fact, elected by them. It is noteworthy that a terrible, dictatorial leader is part of the evolutionary shifts in world power from Ivan the Terrible (1547-1584) to Adolf Hitler to Putin to Donald – plus a dozen or so in smaller nations. Their job is to destroy the old system so transformations can begin anew in the new age of electronics, diminishing wealth, overpopulation and international difficulties – after the dictators disappear.

• The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History” by Elizabeth Kolbert, was published in 2014. Through detailed research of current and recent disappearances of every kind of creature driven into extinction by a changing world shaped almost single handed by humans, 16,000 species have disappeared. Very important but hardly noticed is that the rate of extinction is increasing.

Historians and scientists have the audacity to create their own age: the Anthropocene Age. Is this world situation something to be proud of?

Ancient Mariner

Ode to Nature

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Mariner is pleased that in addition to his three alter egos, he has a wife who is the world’s best poet but doesn’t make any money because she refuses to publish her excellent works. Nevertheless, she is willing to share with mariner’s audience:

A Poem for Dr. Poulter

Dr. Poulter taught botany my freshman year of college

I went to class three days a week,

I paid attention, took notes

Passed tests

And now I can remember zylem and phloem

and little else.

I am not a scientist as I walk through these woods

I can not name the trees or wildflowers

But I do not think he failed in his teaching.

I remember that he talked about the trees

He noticed on his walk across campus,

I remember his delight in plants, in learning,

And in teaching.

I think he would be pleased that I remember him

When I walk in the woods

Drinking in the beauty of the morning,

Surrounded by green leaves

Yearning toward the sun

Full of zylem and phloem

Whatever that is.

 

MKM  8-19-2025

Does the reader have a map?

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Sitting in the tunnel with Nosy Mole where it is a lot cooler than outside, mariner received an email from Wayside Gardens. It was a big splash sale with huge price cutting on Hyssop.  “That’s odd,” he said. “I just mentioned hyssop in my last post – and as far as I know, I’ve never seen a sale ad for hyssop before – its an indigenous plant.”

Know the world you live in.

⊗

Here is a short clip from The Atlantic magazine: “Imagine an intersection at which American national security, defense spending, the rise of China, technological innovation, regional conflict, and the future of liberal democracy all meet.” Mariner doubts this intersection has a traffic light.

The old fogies still around remember the last two centuries where global wealth was more abundant and disruption was between selected nations. This century is different. It is not just international bickering, it is way too many people for the environment and way too little resources available from a disappearing biosphere. The global economic stress challenges all forms of government. Then, like hot pepper tossed into a soup, AI is attacking the anthropological role of everything – including Homo.

So, who else is watching old episodes of Lawrence Welk? Homo is on its way to Matrix.

Ancient Mariner

We all need new top down awareness

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Especially the world’s governments but that’s another story.

Even more important is that you, me and every individual around the globe must stop living by the daily ethics of life that may have been true forty years ago. Computers are no longer smart typewriters and no longer fantastic libraries; computer technology has created a subhuman species capable of telling us what we should know and what to think. In a few years, computers, as our medical advisors and primary care physicians, will decide whether you continue to live or not. What is scary is that computers already think for themselves – technicians no longer solve ethical positions. Today a majority of stock market trades never see a human mind. Who tells you the truth – Mom or the smartphone?

We must cast aside the romantic image of farming as a rural life style with cute lambs and mooing cows and amber waves of grain and purple mountain majesties above a fruited plain. Worldwide we keep clearing to make room for more farms to make more food. The image of a romantic farm should be replaced by the relentless spread of crops and pastures that already cover two of every five acres of land on Earth, obliterating the wild landscapes that soak up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.  Further, it is propelling the worst extinction since an asteroid wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago..

We must look beyond a world made of nations. Any nation, including the US and China, is incapable on its own to stabilize industrial development, international supply chains, artificial intelligence, humanitarian obligations and, importantly – open warfare. At the least, smaller nations, especially in Africa and the Middle East, must adopt a model similar to the European Union. On a global scale, it is time to make war less important than management of the planet and all its human disasters. It is time for one nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all – including Mother Earth. It is time for the United Nations to be authorized as the ethical authority – including the right to wage international war.

The ethics of human society must leave behind the age of nationally defined variations of humans; it is of no consequence whether Italian, Brazilian, South African, Indian, Polish, Chinese . . . The issue is eight billion humans and growing. There are only two choices: let the population grow until there is a tragic, horrible collapse of controlled civilization, or take control of birthrates. Sardonically, computers may help us with the population issue. The Dixie style of birth control is simplistic. The following is an extract from a post mariner wrote last April:

“A tremendous change occurred with the industrial revolution: whereas it had taken all of human history until around 1800 for world population to reach one billion, the second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in 30 years (1960), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987).

  • During the 20th century alone, the population in the world has grown from 1.65 billion to 6 billion.
  • In 1970, there were roughly half as many people in the world as there are now.”

Immediately, one grasps the idea that population and natural resources are the two issues that can’t remain under control given the ethical image we carry from the 1970’s. So, are we willing to go the way of the dinosaurs using our homemade asteroid or will humans have the wherewithal to live according to a new top down awareness?

Ancient Mariner

 

 

 

Old folks are like annuals.

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The advantage of living in Nosey Mole’s tunnels is that it is quiet. The environment is stable and unchanging. Just as once in a while Nosey pokes his head above ground to check on things, so to has mariner. But they are brief moments to check that normalcy prevails around the tunnels.

What mariner sees is his small town. True, normalcy seems to prevail; citizens are living lives within the scope of normalcy, all the houses are still there and the pleasures of electricity, water and labor-saving inventions prevail. But what mariner perceives as normalcy across his lifetime no longer exists.

For folks born in the 1930s and 1940’s, the world of the 21st century is not ‘normal’. The big war ended while these folks were still young. What emerged was an era of bright sunshine, happiness and stable family life. Things like amusement parks, movie theaters and shopping districts were every day outings. Pleasantness often pushed the realities of existence aside. True, the realities of haves and have-nots existed but what was different was the sunshine. It seemed brighter. When the Sun rose in the morning, it was a new day to be experienced.

The first disruption to the sunshine was the Viet Nam war which, in hindsight, was the first sign of imbalance in the world’s political/economic situation. Now there are clouds in the sky – clouds that are omens of change and disruption. In mariner’s town, the sixties were the last years of a town-centric economy, a bustling social environment and a self-contained feeling of living in the sunshine.

Clouds gathered over the next twenty years then Reagan introduced cold weather. Those war-years folks weren’t at the center of society anymore. Unions were forced out of existence, corporations became gigantic but were no longer required to provide full retirement to their employees, democrats became white collar and forgot their roots. Farms became too large to be based on a single family economy. Computers began their march against social dependency.

The first hard frost was the disruption by the virus followed by a withering Congress, then came the age of Trump – the beginning of winter.

The sunshine is gone today. There is no warm, invigorating sunrise. Children of the war years are not indigenous. Culturally, they are withering – even as they continue to live their own reality.

Children of the big war are like annual plants – a life experience that does not extend into the present winter.

Ancient Mariner

Same-o, Same-o

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Hello Readers –

The reason all the honkies are getting behind Trump and his non-white deportation program (citizen or not)  and the idea of paying only honky women $5,000 to have a honky baby is because for several years now the population studies show that honkies will become a minority in 2045. Just wanted the readers to know that motive.

On to somewhat nicer stuff:

This definitely is the year of the dandelion. Mariner and his wife have spent several days removing dandelions from garden beds. Lawns can be treated chemically but garden beds are much more sensitive to chemicals and acidity. Dandelions are like mulberry tree seedlings = one must get the entire root, leaving not even a splinter. Otherwise, it will grow again. Maple trees are an insidious weed, too, but cutting it below the surface kills it.

It is hoped that there will be no more frosts. This past winter was unusually brutal. It was hard on roses and azaleas. Fortunately, the peonies and bulb flowers are bursting forth. Mariner has lots of irises and they all have big flower buds about to bloom. Spring has come. It seems in the Midwest that there have been regular occurrences of big stormy fronts with floods and tornado warnings. Fortunately, all his town gets is an occasional thunderstorm; he lives in a strip of Iowa that is declared a drought zone. Agriculture agencies have moved mariner’s side of Iowa from growing zone 4 to zone 6 suggesting warmer winters. He’ll believe it when it happens.

The title of this post is “Same-o, Same-o” because he has been watching a documentary series about early Rome during the age of unbridled, typically narcissistic emperors – like feeding typically lower class Christians to lions or murdering relatives to assure the proper succession. It is amazing how today’s President has mastered their style.

As to AI, everyone has been exposed to this new phenomenon enough that a rewatch of the film “The Social Dilemma” would be meaningful. It is available on Netflix.

Have a happy summer everyone!

Ancient Mariner