House Agriculture Appropriations Bill

The mariner recently has written about the battle with hegemony as the hardest task in moving the Country forward to success. The Agriculture Appropriations Bill passed by the Republican majority in the House of Representatives is an excellent example that the battle is at hand.

The Republicans added government paid insurance to farmers to cover 90 percent of crop losses. This assures billions of dollars will be paid out for every ear of corn that did not grow right or any soybeans with an Asian beetle in the field or any damage to any crop a farmer grows – even the giant corporate farms that do not need the money any more than Bill Gates needs a loan. A clause was slipped into the bill at the last moment to remove sunset language to make the increases permanent.

Meanwhile, the Bill gutted the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) that feeds 47 million citizens of the United States – most of whom work for inadequate salaries.

This is a clear example of war from those who would preserve hegemony. It is blatant legislation that moves more money to those who already have money – the exact opposite of what is required to have a successful future for the United States. At the same time, it is another blow to the middle and working class citizens, stripping even more of the quality of life from the population that must be restored to strengthen the future of the United States.

Pull up a chair; your future is playing out in front of you.

Ancient Mariner

 

Paving the Road to Future Success

Overturning hegemony need not be a matter of violent war as in the past. It can be a continuous conversion of society, taking one bridge at a time. In the American democratic culture, we are lucky that many before us have given their lives and livelihoods to change the power structure. We have in place a seasoned democratic system by which financial and cultural imbalance can be restored without bloodshed on a grand scale.

Still, there are warriors today. The battle for cultural reform is active in many areas.

Consider women’s rights, both on the job and Planned Parenthood. Consider the battle between corporate profit and unions. Consider the attack on retirement funds. Consider deliberate underfunding of discretionary programs for support of education, health, financial safety nets. Consider the battle to make each vote count in an election without the corruption of outside money. Consider the battle on tax reform and reigning in the abuses written into law by corporations and opportunists. Consider the battle to rebuild infrastructure for a new age, a new energy program, and a distribution of tax income to local empowerment.

The American citizen is indeed in the midst of an ideological war that has waxed and waned through the centuries in many countries. There is a tendency for the lucky among us to accumulate wealth. While that in itself is not an issue, eventually wealth begets wealth and money begins to accumulate unfairly, debilitating the happiness and wellbeing of large numbers of the society. In terms of today’s society, battles for shared participation in the country’s wealth began with the New Deal and the government controlled modernization and equality until the late 1960’s. Since then, the hegemonic forces have been whittling away at the reforms that had been made. From the time of Reagan’s Presidency, the slide backward has accelerated.

If the United States is to remain a world power, the entire population must be armed with education, financial security, and a controlled distribution both of taxes and corporate reform. To remain the world power that we remember from the middle of the last century, every citizen must be a capably armed warrior.

War can be avoided by using the ballot box. Revisit the post, “How to Restore a Balanced and Fair Economy.” That post is a primer for turning around the direction of the war on hegemony.

Your vote is critical. Give your decision a long thought. Will you help pave the way to a successful future, or sustain the hegemony that grows stronger and stronger with each election?

Ancient Mariner.

The Road to Future Success is not a Paved Road

The mariner received some interest in process. How does the Country move from failing point A to successful point B?

It is neither easy nor lacking in intense emotion and includes a large majority of active citizen interference to transition to a successful future. Most of the suggestions in the post, “How to Restore a Balanced and fair Economy” are tactics that will initiate change. There is much more beyond that list.

Hegemony will be the hardest task. Think about the following brief list of disassembled hegemony in history:

•Forcing the Magna Carta to be signed by King John in 1215. It curtailed the arbitrary declarations of the monarchy with principles bound by rule of law. Not as well known is that the premise of this document was not settled until 1651. The following, copied for its brevity, is from the Wikipedia:

“The English Civil War (1642–1651) was a series of armed conflicts and political problems between Parliamentarians (Roundheads) and Royalists (Cavaliers). The first (1642–46) and second (1648–49) civil wars pitted the supporters of King Charles I against the supporters of the Long Parliament, while the third war (1649–51) saw fighting between supporters of King Charles II and supporters of the Rump Parliament. The Civil War ended with the Parliamentary victory at the Battle of Worcester on 3 September 1651.

The English Civil War led to the trial and execution of Charles I, the exile of his son, Charles II, and replacement of English monarchy with, first, the Commonwealth of England (1649–53), and then with a Protectorate (1653–59), under Oliver Cromwell‘s personal rule. The monopoly of the Church of England on Christian worship in England ended with the victors consolidating the established Protestant Ascendancy in Ireland. Constitutionally, the wars established the precedent that an English monarch cannot govern without Parliament’s consent, although this concept was legally established only with the Glorious Revolution later in the century.” (1688)

•The American Civil War, which ended slavery and demolished an intensely racist hegemony in the South. The war killed 620,000 American Citizens and a President. The resultant social segregation, still a closed hegemonic class of whites, was not outlawed until 1954 when the Warren Court ended segregation. The final settlement, at least legally, was the Civil Rights Act of 1964 – 100 years after the Civil War.

•The New Deal (1933-1936) was a series of Presidential Executive orders backed by a Democratic Congress. The New Deal was caused as a response to the Great Depression where as many as 25 percent of working men were jobless (women were not a significant part of the workforce until the Second World War; given today’s heterosexual workforce, that statistic may be equivalent to 50 percent today). Republicans fought against the New Deal then and still do to this very day. The battle over the New Deal is not over even as we prepare to move into a new economy.

One of the major arguments for the Great Depression and the New Deal response is the observations that the population was under-spending while the financially better off were over-investing. Does this sound familiar today? (See the post, “Where does the money Go” with its analogy of nonexistent horses) Finally, the 1929 stock market collapse brought the economy down. That, too, sounds familiar. Remember the bank collapse of 2008?

There are many overthrows of hegemony throughout history: The French revolution, Glasnost in Poland and many more. Is it inevitable that the American citizen today must endure violence and debilitating living standards to reach future success?

Perhaps we can avoid a lot of agony if we elect a government that understands what it must do to overthrow the current hegemony.

Ancient Mariner

The Future: Failure and Promise

The tone of many posts on the Ancient Mariner blog have been accusative, depressing and wanting for answers regarding the dilemma of the economy, culture and politics that exist today. The mariner has played the role of Grim Reaper, warning that death is near. These posts have set an accurate description of the times we live in. The recovery from the 2008 recession is not really a recovery. It is more a symptom of a far greater transition in our lives. The bank failures, simultaneously tied to high stock prices and the rapid decline in the standard of life for American people, indicates that the United States is off balance. The time to regain balance shortens daily and the big question is will the United States fail or succeed?

Failure will be to stay on course, an economy where corporations draw the last blood from employees, inventory, markets, and their own ability to exist in twenty-five years. Those who can afford it invest in the stock market; they are trying to catch the last flight out of this economic mess – similar to the last days of occupation at the end of the Vietnam War. This is why stock prices are high; there is nothing else left. In our hearts and pocketbooks, we know that to continue with today’s economic model, today’s cultural biases, and today’s political ignorance, the United States will no longer be a world power.

Where is the promise of the future? Where is a resurgence of pride, success, and a wholesome life for the common citizen?

Take a long look at the major changes in American history, both economically and culturally. A young America rode the wave of natural resources into the Industrial Age; farmers became factory workers; an emerging infrastructure foretold a mobile and distributed economy; society reorganized itself away from stiff hegemony to a growing middle class economy.

The culture changed along the way, too. New State governments forged a new national citizenry; slavery was abolished; women were allowed to vote; unions were legalized; the banks invested in the power of the working class; civil rights were enforced; segregation was banned; Social Security assured a minimal safety net; the GI Bill encouraged upward mobility and an educated population. The economy could not have grown without lifting cultural fairness for the common citizens.

It is time again. It is time to transition to a new America. We, and our government, and our corporate wealth have a choice to make. America can readjust to a lower standard of power, wealth, and cultural stagnation by becoming a service economy, recognizing that is what we already are experiencing, or we can become a nation of creators and pioneers for the rest of the world.

The nation experienced such a role during the early space program. That leadership role created hundreds of new technologies, new products, and new jobs across many industries. It is that feeling we must regain if we are to see the promise of the future. We must insist that our elected government has the same vision and that our corporations begin again to invest in educating and underwriting the middle class to be an asset to progress and profit.

There is resistance to this transition, just as hegemony was disempowered in the past, it must be again. The Governments must turn their ear back to the citizenry (and close their pocketbooks). Ask what is the best path for the American citizen? As farmers became factory workers, the working force must be turned into a new working force – educated in new technologies, new ideas, and fully capable of creating and pioneering a new world order.

Creativity has always been the strong suit of the American culture – when it was cared for and encouraged. The middle class must be strengthened and drawn into the cutting edge of new technology, new cultural fairness, and new lifestyles.

That is the promise of the future. Will government, business, and us pull together? It is the only way to get a ticket out of this troubled time.

Ancient Mariner

 

Our Brain and Probability

The quickest trick to play on the brain to demonstrate that a human brain does not process probability is to say, “You Gotta Play to Win.” This sets up in the brain a simple equation: If you don’t play, you won’t win and if you do play, you will win. Well, maybe not every time….

The phenomenon called probability has intrigued mariner for some time. The brain operates strictly on a cause and effect mode – information in, information out. Probability, however, does not operate that way. Probability is free to behave randomly in terms of cause and effect expectations.

As a warm up for this post, visit my favorite university at

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/applied-math/cryptography/random-algorithms-probability/v/bayes-theorem-visualized

The weatherman says there is a ten percent chance of rain. To take the statement literally as a cause and effect event, everyone will receive ten percent of all the rain today. Alternatively, one could deduce that the weatherman has said this many times before and it did not rain so the probability in the listener’s mind is quite different from ten percent. Bayes’ Theorem, which will be discussed later, is able to discern the difference between what is expected and what may happen.

A recent book and a Nobel Prizewinner for economics, “Thinking Fast and Slow,” by Daniel Kahneman, has an excellent chapter that discusses why the brain is so easily fooled by probability. A key concept in the book is the “anchor” effect. The first piece of information the brain receives becomes an anchor that unduly affects proper judgment as later information is added. Kahneman’s example:

The initial price offered for a used car sets the standard for the rest of the negotiations, so that prices lower than the initial price seem more reasonable even if they are still higher than what the car is really worth.

The anchor effect is isolated quite nicely by Nate Silver in his book, “The Signal and the Noise,” which is about identifying the correct anchor in sports betting. Silver takes the reader through many examples of mistaken anchors that did not consider the appropriate first piece of information and therefore led to gambling losses. It is in Silver’s book that he simplifies Bayes’ Theorem, which is a massive and complex set of calculations.

Silver sets up a simple set of questions:

X = prior assumption (first piece of information):

Do you think your husband cheats on you? The woman thinks

it is unlikely and says maybe 5%. X=.05

Y = a new event occurs: a strange pair of panties is discovered in the

husband’s car. Is this true evidence or an unexplained

circumstance? What are the chances it is circumstantial?

The wife thinks maybe 20%. Y=.20
Z= What are the chances it is true evidence that the husband has been cheating? The wife thinks maybe 80% Z=.80

Nate Silver sets up the following equation:

___XY____                    .01___                = .013                                                                 XY+Z (1-X)                .81 (.95)

Roughly one chance in a hundred that the husband is cheating. The equation demonstrates the power of the anchor effect. The wife had a very low value (.05) as the first piece of information. This made the later values less effective even though the panties were a strong piece of evidence.

In reality, the husband will have a lot of explaining to do because the brain does not think in terms of probabilities.

Ancient Mariner

 

Following Jesus Around

The Gospel Matthew is written as a travelogue. The scriptures follow Jesus as he walks the roads of Israel. A reader should read the gospel in its entirety for an informal but insightful experience. What Jesus presents to the reader in the 49 parables, the Sermon on the Mount, and the greatest commandments is not the Christian religion we practice today – – not even remotely.

Jesus traveled humbly and accepted the grace of those he met to be fed and given a place for the night. This was never an issue with Jesus because he was a charismatic, caring person and drew people to him easily. It is clear that Jesus did not concern himself with income or prestige, or self-importance; it was those very things he felt were sins in the eyes of God. We are familiar with his comparison with the sparrow and the lily, saying that if God cared for these, would not God also care for us.

At one point early in his travels, Jesus is chastised by the Pharisees (ministers) for having dinner with lowly and despised individuals. Jesus responds by saying he has come to save those in need, not the self-righteous – who do not need God. Repeatedly in his travels, Jesus says two things: Love God first – even before your own family and especially before yourself. The second is that God wants us to assist the downtrodden, unfortunate, sick, and despised. He implies quite clearly at one point that one does not serve God sitting in a pew and “praying where the public can see them.”

His absolute insistence on humbleness and brotherly love runs throughout the Gospel. Another familiar instruction we all know but ignore is “Judge not lest you be judged.” Is there anyone who can honestly profess not to have prejudice, favoritism, disdain, or self-importance?

It appears obvious that his present day followers have drifted far, far from the truths of his sermons and parables. Dare we call ourselves Christian? Is there anyone among us who will put another person’s wellbeing above self indulgence, deciding rather who we are by what we earn and spend than provide for another person first? Jesus says give all your wealth away and follow him. Remember the comparison about the camel fitting through the eye of a needle?

The New Testament focus is on loving others and respecting God’s natural love for us and God’s gift of wisdom and happiness beyond measure. Read the Gospel Matthew to remember what a Christian is.

Ancient Mariner

Abortion

The mariner can avoid it no longer. The issue has gone beyond rationality. On the one hand, the conservatives are passing truly unscientific and, if you are a woman, abusive law that invades privacy beyond all measure. On the liberal side, a human life in any phase of gestation is disposable.

The genuine believers in the sanctity of life also include the sanctity of womanhood. To unnecessarily destroy a human being is a violation of ethics related to the sanctity of life – a creation of God some would say, regardless of an abuse of a child unwanted and uncared for and likely to live an unfavorable life.

The definition of when a fetus becomes human is an arguable point and the mariner understands that. The mariner does not understand surreptitious legislation that is never debated on the floor of the legislature and, at the heart of it, does not demonstrate a concern for the humanity of a woman, a child, or anything ethical but rather something more akin to the Spanish Inquisition. It makes no sense that a woman must have a sonogram before she can pursue birth control of any kind – even a condom, which is considered guilt by intent.

It makes no sense that there are magical ways to avoid pregnancy because a rape has occurred. A rape is a crime and women should not be co-conspirators of a rape crime. Is one sin piled upon another valid? Some think that hospitals can perform a D&C (dilation and curettage) that will make things right. Yet the laws passed recently deny the hospital the authority to perform a D&C.

Clearly, there is a political war ongoing that has left ethics, religion, and sanctity of life behind. This is not good. It is mean. The mariner believes that the abortion issue truly is a personal situation protected by privacy, expediency and one’s ethical responsibility. One’s personal opinion cannot measure another person’s opinion.

Using such a sacred, sensitive and personal issue to wage war in the political environment is a sin all unto itself.

Ancient Mariner

Jesus

Jesus was a real person. Jesus was born in Bethlehem, Israel during a census where people returned to the city of their birth to be counted. Though born in Bethlehem, Jesus’ father Joseph lived in Nazareth, about sixty miles north in the Province of Galilee. The accounts of Jesus’ birth are documented in Matthew (1:18) and Luke (2:1). The birth is more romantic in Matthew while Luke sets more of an historical tone. Still, it is clear that something special has happened with the birth of Jesus and Jesus will indeed become famous in his lifetime and within one hundred years will have shown the world the path to a loving, caring God.

He was greatly enlightened for his time and had powerful charisma. He spoke of a new loving God and became an influential rabbi throughout Galilee, a province in northern Israel. Some authors divide the ministry of Jesus into three categories: the early period, which includes his birth and many special trips to be baptized, to be tempted by Satan and to throw out the money changers in Jerusalem; the Galilean ministry, a period when his travels were exclusively within the Province of Galilee; the later period, when Jesus traveled over all of Israel until the time of his crucifixion. Because he lived during a period when the Jewish Old Testament was the law and history of Israel, he had to perform many acts of healing, preaching, and eventually, if he were to be the (Jewish) Messiah, travel triumphantly into Jerusalem. He arrived in Jerusalem simply but the crowds were large and cheering.

The issue of being the Messiah is the likely reason that the Old Testament and the New Testament are joined in the Bible. Early Jewish followers and writers wanted Jesus to be recognized as Messiah, a specially anointed person and the Savior of Israel. These writers penned as many validations as possible to “prove” that, in terms of the Old Testament law describing the coming Messiah, Jesus qualified as that Messiah. What the earliest writers did not know was that in just a few years, Gentiles would become the larger group of followers who kept the idea that Jesus was the Messiah, the Son of God. Consequently, there is a period after Jesus’ death where converted Jews and Gentiles integrated the two interpretations of the term Messiah, forever bonding the Old Testament to the New Testament. Finally, later writers began to describe the Sanctity of Jesus in his own right as the Son of God, the Christ, sent to earth to forgive the world of its sins, not just the salvation of Israel.

Jesus indeed was the Son of a new God. Jesus was God on earth. The life and teachings of Jesus are so phenomenal even today that his faith, his sacrifice and love for others, his giving of his life on the cross at Calvary have created a new world order not bound by fear, self interest and greed. There is a new order, closer to God, closer to a common love between all people, a new order that allows us to respond to the never-ending love of a God we would not have known without Jesus.

Where Does the Money Go?

The mariner has pondered how real cash dollars disappear during a downturn of the economy. There is no cash to buy things that are bought easily in better times. What happened to all the dollars that were around during good times? As he read about dollars, he learned that there are many different kinds of money – which makes it difficult to ask such a simple question as “Where is the money?”

The oldest money is commodity money – trading two pigs for a horse and a wife. There are no dollars in commodity money – only the relative value of a pig versus a horse, a little clamshell for a bigger clamshell, and a variation where labor is considered a commodity – I’ll shovel your snow if you give me a turkey. This kind of money worked fine except that it is hard to carry pigs, horses and turkeys in your pocket.

It wasn’t long before the first “banker” went into business by warranting, for a fee, that you did indeed have a horse that can be exchanged for a wife and conversely, there was indeed a father trying to marry off a daughter. This was easier because people didn’t have to carry all these commodities around; just show a note to the other party that the banker has warranted that a horse is available and vice versa. Is this note a kind of dollar?

What happens to the note if the horse is not available?  Oddly, the banker’s note still exists but the horse doesn’t. The note still says you have a horse. In 2008 this note was called a derivative. So many people had derivatives that did not actually have horses that the whole process came to a standstill. Actually, the horses were supposed to be in people’s homes. They had a warranty from the mortgage company that said they had horses, but they had no horses. The bankers were shrewd. They took out insurance in case there were no horses. So the bankers made tons of money replacing nonexistent horses.

There still are commodity dollars around today. In fact, there’s something called a commodity exchange where people gamble about how much a commodity, like coffee or corn, will be worth next year. The most commonly known commodities are gold and silver except that the value of the dollars in our pockets has nothing to do with gold and silver unless you want the gold, then you need to give away some dollars. Do the dollars you give for the gold mean that you are warranted to have enough horses to match the price of the gold? Only if they are real dollars. They are real only because the Federal Government’s Central Bank warranted your horses.

Forget commodities. Dollars are not based on commodities anymore. Today there is a theory that money isn’t real. “Money” is your worth to a credit company or a bank. For example, if you bought a soft drink for a dollar with your credit card or a check, or “real money,” there was no money spent or earned. Instead, your warranty dropped in value and the seller’s warranty went up in value. Value is the new word for money. There are no real dollars; if you have paper dollars, they have no value except on a ledger sheet where you received your paycheck, your bank, or your credit card. Just like the barter days, you don’t have to carry around a lot of dollars to demonstrate warranty, you just need the bookkeeper’s credit card – the universal warranty.

The theory goes that the more value in play from buyer to seller to buyer, etc., the more value can be created – not dollars but value. Using this “circuitous” redistribution of value – or credit – value can be created without commodities (horses) as long as the circuitousness keeps moving. You add value to the circuit and the circuit creates ten times more as it redistributes your value. In downturns of the economy, the circuit slows down and does not create as much new value. If you have spent more value than you contributed, then you have to go looking for horses to pay off your debt to the circuit.

You may not have followed this account well, but the answer to the question “where does the money go?” is that it isn’t created when the circuit slows down. The money doesn’t exist in the first place.

Ancient Mariner