Nate Silver wrote one of the best books on probability that will ever be written. The mariner reviewed it a couple of years ago paying tribute to Silver’s explanation of Baye’s Law of probability. It is a rich mixture of analysis, statistics, theory, and human nature. The book is titled, The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction. It was released as a paperback in March, 2015 and climbed to #4 on the best seller list. Silver’s original intent was to show how he had been successful as a handicapper in basketball and baseball but his methods were so pure and correct that he had no choice but to apply his skills to other fields – such as politics. Nate has astounded the world with the accuracy of his predictions. It is with that promotion that the mariner recommends using Nate Silver’s website as a key source of opinion and insight during the 2016 campaigns. His home website, where many articles and projections are available is:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/

An article on Donald Trump’s chances is at:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

Please add 538 to your favorites list. It is one thing to interpret the rhetoric of the politicians, another to suffer the TV pundits, and another to see the elections from your foxhole in the midst of it all. Instead, do a reality check with Nate’s website every once in a while. The information is current and has a freshness and accuracy about it that the reader will find nowhere else.

While poking around in 538’s many branches, the mariner came upon some statistics that just about lock Hillary as the democratic nominee (see:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/#endorsements )

Some of the older readers may have just a slight memory of the old precinct days when precinct captains had the important job of assuring that voter turnout was in favor of one candidate or another. Rolling up the precinct votes to local, county and state accumulations determined who would go to the party convention or, during the actual election, who may win (remember Joe Kennedy and the Chicago vote?).

These delegates were bound to their candidate for the first round of voting. If no one had a majority, then everyone got out their cigars and went in the back room. The nominee clearly was picked at the convention. After some long meetings, the mariner remembers delegations saying, “Mr. Chairman, the great State of so-and-so switches their votes to Candidate X, the next President of the United States!”

No doubt, the deal making in that smoke-filled backroom was closer to a cattle auction than a debate for the best candidate. Eventually, political parties were forced to yield authority to the primary system we have today.

A study was done in 2008 regarding candidates who were successful in past Presidential elections. It turns out there still is an “invisible primary” that has more influence than the primaries of the fifty states. If the reader thinks back to the last convention during the 2012 campaign, they may remember a few comments about Governors and Senators playing important roles because each of these elected “super delegates” had a vote politically comparable to a State delegation. This collection of super delegates acts very much like the Federal electoral college is intended: If there is a populist surge for a questionable candidate, the super delegates can directly influence the final outcome. The elected politicians and party leaders constitute the invisible primary.

A comparison of democratic candidates shows Hillary historically ahead in the invisible primary:

Candidate   Representatives    Senators      Governors

1 point each        5 points each   10 points each      Total points

Hillary Clinton     105                145                      70                       320

Joe Biden               1                                             10                         11

Martin O’Malley      1                                                                             1

Bernie Sanders                                                                                     0

The citizenry has a difficult time redirecting its nation when redirection is needed. What can be said? Power yields only to greater power – something not owned by the citizenry EXCEPT AT THE BALLOT BOX. Citizens truly must be determined to have the government do their bidding.

Ancient Mariner

The mariner was sitting at a lunch counter the other day with a few of his acquaintances. It was his first encounter with avid Donald fans. These were good, loving people, active in church life, not the extremist type in any measure. The acquaintances had great disdain for the professional politician no matter the party or even some of the views about abortion, states’ rights, or immigration. More important, they were professional politicians – a species to be despised. Other republicans the mariner had conversations with on other occasions were disdainful of the whole lot, including Donald. They had a hard edge to them; heavy duty pro-gun, no abortions under any circumstance and, sadly, much in line with the Deep South’s resistance to homosexuals. These hard-edged folks were the tea party kind he understood. They carried paranoia with them like others carry a lunch box.

Carefully entering the conversation at the counter, he asked, “What is it about Donald that appeals to you?”

“He never lies,” they said. “Every other politician lies – all the time.”

The mariner didn’t pursue a response as they continued to laud Donald for being his own man, spending his own money, and again saying that, “Whatever Donald says, he never lies! He says what he means!”

When Donald says he will remove 12 million Hispanics from the US and “ship them back to Mexico,” isn’t that a lie? Can’t anyone in his audience understand he can’t do that even if he put up the money himself? The audience likes his arrogant and irreverent homiletics but can’t they see it is a lie? It is pure bullcrap. He says he will overturn the Fourteenth Amendment to prevent immigrants from coming over the border for “one day” to have an anchor baby. This is a lie, too – regardless of one’s opinion. Donald’s cadre of “expert lawyers” is a lie, too. No honest lawyer would dare go near the Fourteenth Amendment, a cultural precedent that is older than the US and traces all the way back to pre-American times in Great Britain. And the mariner suspects Donald knows it’s a lie as well – or maybe he believes he can do it. Either way, an incongruous falsehood. Sadly, his fans distrust non-whites in the first place and would rather enjoy a lie told as a truth than give Donald’s words a second thought.

When Donald says he will build a 12 billion dollar fence along the border with Mexico, it is a deliberate lie. Congress cannot possibly afford to spend that much on a fence; 12 billion is more than even Donald can spend. Adding the army and air force flies in the face of credulity. Who wants a war with Mexico?

The mariner has offered a taste of the truth as told by a careless fabricator. Yet Donald sits firmly at the top of polls in popularity. He is there because a homophobic, xenophobic, and racist vein runs through American culture. How many are out there? The mariner fears there are enough to derail a truly historical moment in US history that will position us to survive a while longer.

Ancient Mariner