We are slow Learners

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Most everyone (including mariner) points at the pandemic as an expediter, an accelerator of cultural change. Mariner checked out other cultural shifts that have occurred in history; it turns out big-time change takes a while. It obviously is true that the pandemic has shut down twentieth century values by forcing adaptation to emerging artificial intelligence, exploding corporatism and by causing an economic blip because of the shutdown of so many supply chains and services – an economic blip that forced the nation to look anew at racism and the growing population of indigent citizens.

So stepping on the brakes, quite firmly, has brought about discordant oddities like a President who is incompetent and a wannabe dictator, a totally collapsed morality in the GOP political party, trillions of dollars made by corporations who monetize what should be uncompromised social behavior and just to add an unusual spin, a planet that is not pleased with human behavior.

Now the question is how long it will take to establish a new era with new economics, new social behavior, new lifestyles, new international collaboration and a new sense of normalcy and confidence across the world.

THE PROTESTANT REFORMATION

It took 131 years (1517-1648) before the open conflict between Roman Catholicism and the protestant rebellion came to awkward but agreeable terms. The role of today’s pandemic was played by Henry VIII, Martin Luther and John Calvin. In short order Henry said nations are not bound by Roman Catholic judgments; Martin Luther said the Holy Bible was the only source of Divine authority and proclaimed that every Christian is a priest in their own right; John Calvin stressed God’s power and humanity’s predestined fate.

Reminiscent of today’s republican-democrat standoff, treaties were hard fought, physical agreements that took decades to settle. It wasn’t until 1530 that the Lutheran Denomination was able to document its approach to Christianity by publishing the Augsburg Confession, a document that settled differences between Protestant sects and was presented to Holy Roman Emperor Charles V.

A thirty-year war raged until 1648 when the Treaty of Westphalia was signed. Another comparison between then and now is the opportunity to use new technology. The new technology during the Reformation was the printing press, giving dissenting views a new, quickly distributed tool with which to fight entrenched authority. Today, in 2020, the new technology is social media – having the same disruptive effect.

As Christmas grows near this year, a genuine gift is the vaccine – developed in such a short time it seems miraculous. This leaves 2021 as the year to start rebuilding the American Dream, redesigning new economics for the world and to see what we can do about Planet Earth’s complaints not only regarding fossil fuel but the heavy price on the biosphere caused by human indifference.

Only 130 years left . . .

Ancient Mariner

A Tall, Tall Order for Joe

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Politico was nice enough to put some effort into analyzing the major issues that will confront Joe Biden whether he wants to deal with them or not. Mariner copied them into this post to give readers a quick insight into what will be occupying the interactions between the President, both houses of Congress, the various cabinets, virtually every State, and hesitating to mention a deeply divided electorate with very little interest in healing through moderation.

Lightly mentioned in the list, other than repairing Donald’s removal of fossil fuel regulations, is the global warming issue. If scientists’ predictions hold – and they have so far – preparing for new housing regulations, new pressures on agriculture, improved FEMA coverage and a seriously increased ‘inside the US’ migration issue should be added during Joe’s term.

Oddly not mentioned are job growth issues. Politically touted by the progressives through the Green New Deal, still, infrastructure has been ignored for twenty-five years and will be a huge boost to job growth.

Another significant issue is restructuring the economy to focus on international trade agreements a la the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). These international deals can’t wait as suggested in the Trade and Manufacturing item. China already has moved in this direction and has begun to tie together international hegemonies.[1]

So the reader can appreciate a quick, clear and analyzed prediction of Joe’s future:

Health Care

Joe Biden’s health care agenda has a Goldilocks strategy: Trying to get it just right to pass Congress. But It doesn’t go far enough for progressives who want Medicare for All, while it goes way too far for Republicans, who still want to kill the bill. -Susannah Luthi

Immigration and the border wall

Immigration policy would be the most dramatic and immediate reversal of Trump policies when Biden takes office. Border wall construction would end virtually overnight in a Biden administration, and he’s pushing a comprehensive immigration overhaul with a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. -Rebecca Rainey and Bryan Bender

Tax

Joe Biden has been quite consistent on his taxation agenda: Nobody who makes less than $400,000 a year would see a tax increase. But dig a little deeper, and the plans around capital games and state and local tax deductions get a lot more complicated in Congress. -Brian Faler

Energy and climate change

Rolling back Donald Trump’s oil industry-friendly regulations could take years for the incoming Biden administration, and the courts that hear challenges to these rollbacks have been stacked with conservatives. That means climate change activists could be seriously disappointed if they’re looking for quick victories in the new administration. -Anthony Adragna and Bryan Bender

Trade and manufacturing

President-elect Biden could roll back tariffs on day one if he wants to — and many American industry leaders would love him to do just that. But Biden is more likely to take a more negotiated approach with China and other trading partners, meaning the free-wheeling global trade system won’t come roaring back quickly. -Gavin Bade and Eleanor Mueller

Technology

The legal protections that major technology platforms like Google, Twitter and Facebook have enjoyed for years will still be threatened under a Biden presidency, but Biden is more likely to work with Congress to rewrite the rules for social media liability protections. -Cristiano Lima

Education

Democrats are dreaming big about free college and increasing spending on low-income schools, but getting a polarized Congress to go along with funding these priorities won’t be easy. The good news for Democrats is Biden can undo some of Donald Trump’s executive orders, including new protections for transgender students. -Michael Stratford

Defense

Everything from the nuclear arsenal to transgender protections for the military will be under review in the Biden administration, with promises to roll back several of Donald Trump’s policies. Biden also wants to negotiate a new version of the War Powers Act to rewrite the post-9/11 authorization for use of force in Afghanistan and Iraq. -Bryan Bender

Housing and redlining

Donald Trump rolled back protections against discrimination in housing, which was part of his efforts to win over white suburban voters. The Biden administration is almost certain to reverse Trump’s orders and push fair housing rules again. -Victoria Guida and Katy O’Donnell

 

[1] Hegemony: Preponderant influence or authority over others. In context, this means several nations will agree to specific roles in an international agreement as opposed to colonialism, EU monetary models, or tariff-driven arrangements. Only three nations are large enough to anchor hegemonic agreements: China, United States and India.

It’s Time

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Regular readers are aware of mariner’s belief that, generally, changes in society reach a moment of significant pressure to change every sixty years. The basic pattern that encourages the sixty year cycle is the generational influence in the social framework. For example, each generation grows up learning different values than their parents; the parents in turn learned different values than their parents.

Because of the natural, familial authority structure, grandparents hang on to the world they grew up in, parents manage the humanist influences of day-to-day life and the youngest generation is absorbing a world relatively unknown to the grandparents.

Significant world events can disrupt and force a restart of the sixty year cycle. For example, two world wars, a massive economic depression and, more subtly, the Cold War, prevented normal cycles of change to occur – although in rural America, the sixty year cycle continued primarily because of advances in farm machinery and real estate cycles.

– – – –

Mariner was ruminating about society with Guru the other day. It was sixty years ago that the 1960’s occurred. Those alive at the time may remember the following events from that era:

John Kennedy assassinated.

Bobby Kennedy assassinated.

Martin Luther King assassinated.

Four white college students murdered on campus by National Guard.

Racial uprising caused major fires in many larger cities, requiring in Baltimore a permanently posted, armed National Guard soldier at every intersection.

Disruptive rioting at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

Rebellion against Vietnam War with protesters burning draft cards and bras and causing a small migration of young people into Canada.

Lyndon Johnson was forced not to run for a second term.

Oh, the memories . . .

The overriding effect of this pressure to change began with new liberal ideas about government and individual rights that began with FDR solutions to the Great Depression. But in the seventies, to regain control of an unruly society, resistance by the oldest generation led to a series of conservative election cycles that shut down liberal change until the emergence of the Millennials at the beginning of this century.

Today, the same generational influences are at play – except this time around there is a fourth, even older generation clinging to authority (Baby Boomers). Despite the overwhelming changes brought about by the Internet, shifting international economies, climate changes and population shifts, governmental authorities are plagued by this extra burden of really old officials remaining in power who are unaware of the new world their grandchildren and great grandchildren are experiencing.

Then along comes the pandemic. The sixty-year model is stopped dead in its tracks. Whatever changes were slowly to be introduced as the oldest generation passed away, suddenly were demanded immediately. A short example: work from home. Another: the political power of social media. Another: Within twenty years, six of the largest cities on America’s coasts will be forced to relocate or constrict real estate economies because of rising seas. But last-cycle politics from the very conservative clog the effort of government to keep up with new demands from society.

It is time for term limits based on age. Bring back the normal Homo sapiens life cycle of three generations of power – sixty years, more or less.

Perhaps it is good that the common citizen must shelter-in while the sixty-year cycle goes to war.

Ancient Mariner.

The Senate

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Vox News (reputable) published the results of a study that shows 18 US Senators represent 52 percent of the population. Is it any wonder that as Kentucky goes, so goes the nation? Is it any wonder that, in the midst of the worst pandemic in US history, the Asperger’s-laden Senate will not support adequate discretionary funding to help out family life, housing and health?

The Georgia vote for two US Senators, if two democrats are elected, will break the conservative logjam in the Senate – something that is necessary before Joe Biden can actually put in place some programs and policies relevant to the 21st century. Alas, mariner has trepidations that both positions will not be filled with democrats. Even with the current election spread in the Electoral College, Chicken Little trembles as the Electoral College December 14th vote approaches – an institution that also reflects a warped representation of the citizenry.

John Dingle, who served in the House of Representatives for 80 years as a democrat from Michigan, often lamented the misrepresentation of the Senate and often proposed changing the Constitution. In the Atlantic Magazine issue of January 2019, Eric Orts wrote an article about the two-senators-from-each-state rule and proposed a solution that gave every state a minimum of one senator; California would receive 12 Senate seats and other states would receive allocations commensurate with their population. In that article, Orts quotes Daniel Patrick Moynihan who in 1995 said “Sometime in the next century the United States will have to address Senate representation of the population to preserve the Second Amendment right requiring ‘one person, one vote.’”

So, as most Americans celebrate the end of a surrealistic Trump administration, nonetheless recovery may be difficult with a republican Senate. Remember that Joe’s job is to heal the nation more than to take on an undefined future.

Ancient Mariner

Beyond Covid-19

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Similar to its addiction to Donald, the press has been consumed with Covid-19. Not that this is unwarranted but the world continues to live and breathe, to live day-to-day and to place each day into a continuing history of nations, nature, and the experience of individual lives.

The pandemic is a fog that prevents clear observation of human activity at every level. But reality still exists beyond the virus and certain policies and philosophies lay waiting as the fog clears.

֎ Most newsworthy has been the interest of the Congress in Big Data – not necessarily for the right reasons but still, Big Data is on the agenda for sweeping changes in antitrust, net neutrality, privacy, accountability, taxation and social responsibility. The Biden doctrine seeks to make high speed Internet available to every American – a source of new jobs.

֎ Every nation around the world is confronted with an old concept of economy that dates back to Adam Smith (1700s). The politics of world commerce is sensitive to how resources are leveraged. The fact that the stock markets of the world still seem to create earned income in the midst of worldwide economic suffering grows ever more fragile. At some point, corporate manipulation will no longer be able to support a profit that doesn’t exist at street level.

The leading thought is for nations to share the confrontation of dwindling resources by joining a common market where several nations agree to share an economic plan together. China is well on its way to creating a number of these international contracts. Economic philosophers use the term hegemonic economy.

֎ Climate change continues to be poo-pooed by the fossil fuel industry and others who would be resistant to enforced behavior by their governments. Nevertheless, like Covid, nature is not political. The sea level, the storm intensity and the rapidly shifting weather patterns forebode hardship on economies, regional disasters and personal tragedy. Forecasters have noted the years of 2030 and 2070 as times of irrevocable confrontation.

֎ Social institutions are forced to be at a crossroad as much as economy and social culture. Whether it is schools, shopping, health, labor policy, employment benefits or housing, there is inadequacy at every turn. The fact is that the very core of family behavior is at risk. How do families sustain themselves? How do families engage in normal behavior similar to education, childcare and achievable lifestyles? How do families prepare for elderly care?

Donald may be out of office but the tsunami of reality in his wake leaves a lot of work for each human being seeking to survive in these historic times of change.

Ancient Mariner

Wisdom in a Phrase

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Once in a while everyone stumbles across a short phrase that seems poignant, insightful or profound. Mariner has collected phrases over time that are significant. Just a few below:

֎ A very recent one from the Netflix documentary, “The Social Dilemma,” is the phrase ‘When a dead tree is more important than a living tree; when a dead whale is more important than a living whale, our priorities are not in order.’ This was spoken in the context that society ranked monetization and profit above respect for a natural world.

֎ Victor Hugo wrote an oxymoron that is one of mariner’s favorites, especially for older folks. He said, ‘Melancholy is the joy of depression.’ Hasn’t everyone sat around remembering the good old days, the young social world and when life was full of excitement? Those melancholy feelings are the joy that can be had only by way of depression or boredom.

֎ A term that has long been an expression of wisdom is the phrase, ‘My gut tells me . . .’ Today this term has become pejorative because scientists have discovered that the gut (AKA subconscious) doesn’t use facts to form opinions.

֎ Mariner’s wife contributes the next one, a phrase that keeps one’s perspective about where the self fits in the world:

“There are many ways of being in this circle we call life” is the first line from a John Denver song, The Wings That Fly Us Home. The words were written by Joe Henry, music by John Denver.

“There are many ways of being” has been a mantra for me for many years. It is a way of acknowledging and accepting the world in all of its variety, and the differences among people, too. Everyone has a right to his own interpretation of life, his own choices, his own quirks of personality. Often I say it with a rueful puzzlement–“what were they thinking? Oh, well–there are many ways of being…” It reminds me that my way is not the only way, or necessarily the right way. But it applies to the larger world, too, from grass and trees, to birds and fish, rabbits and moles; so many ways of being in this world. So many different ways of perceiving the world.

For your viewing pleasure:

https://search.aol.com/aol/video;_ylt=AwrJ61kaTslfxuoAxyFpCWVH;_ylu=Y29sbwNiZjEEcG9zAzIEdnRpZAMEc2VjA3Nj?q=the+wings+that+fly+us+home&v_t=webmail-searchbox#id=3&vid=f2dc2c9ab8bc3e45815e24d6258eda67&action=view

֎ Albert Schweitzer is a top hero in mariner’s Pantheon. Albert had many famous quotes but the one that should hang under any portrait is ‘Help me to fling my life like a flaming firebrand into the gathering darkness of the world.’ Albert put his life where it was needed and, to associate it with another phrase from Life is Like a Mountain Railroad, ‘never falter, never fail’.

Pause a moment to find a poignant phrase in your life.

Ancient Mariner

The Ethical Divide

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Watching the news today is not pleasant. It is wearing as a virulent war wages across civilization, as political collaboration collapses into populist and plutocratic conflict, as millions of families experience layoff, job loss, mortgage foreclosure and eviction. If it isn’t the virus, it is stagnant racial conflict, it is the collapse of European democracy into authoritarian abuse, it is the elimination of whole societies as wars that should have ended long ago drag on for decades. If not these issues, it is the collapsing educational system, the disrespect for Constitutional government, the incompetence of elected officials who do not understand the path of history as it evolves into an unknown future. And it is the dwindling of global resources that is ignored by eighteenth century economics.

But there is good news. A movement is emerging. The first newsworthy awareness of this movement began in 2017 when José Andrés (full name, José Ramón Andrés Puerta), a famous chef with a chain of restaurants in Spain and the U.S., organized a charity kitchen to feed survivors of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in 2017. He fed hundreds of thousands. In 2019, Andrés repeated his charitable miracle in Marsh Harbor in the Bahamas when Hurricane Dorian devastated those islands. He established World Central Kitchen as a permanent organization that provides aid to victims of natural disasters.

Of course not everyone has the wherewithal to underwrite charity at such a scale but the better news is the hundreds of special efforts emerging to extend support to those in need. The characteristic of this movement is its local, unincorporated approach consisting of local volunteers and independent leaders, who have stepped up not just for hurricanes but for first responders, victims of the virus, job loss, and the generally needy who have no resources because of today’s disruptive world.

A good example is The Good Shepherd Lutheran Church located in Conneaut, Ohio where a female parishioner organized fellow church members to set up a free kitchen on Saturdays to feed the public so they would have food for the weekend.

Lisa Baker, a volunteer with the Food4Life Atlanta Survival Program, said she’s encouraged by the number of people who are volunteering their time to help. “The first couple of days, I kept hitting refresh on our database, and it was kinda scary watching how many volunteers signed up,” she said. “We have more than 900.”

Other examples are endless. It is clear that common citizens of every class, every religion and every community have stepped out of normal life to help others. Mariner’s term for this is ‘pass it forward’ but these compassionate folks are passing it forward in giant doses!

If you want relief from the terrible news broadcast, distract yourself by participating in the one real, valuable and progressive movement – helping today’s economic victims. Contribute cash, better yet jump in – it’s restorative.

Ancient Mariner

On Being a Stick

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A stick always has two ends – if it has been broken from its tree. When it is attached to the tree, it is part of a larger presence, something that has evidence of a higher calling as part of nature. It is true that the branch (it is not a stick until it is separated) or even the entire tree may be dying or dead. Still, there is an aura of purpose, a part of the grand scheme for the planet’s biosphere.

Is the human species a stick or a branch? There is much evidence that humans have ceased being a branch; humans do not enhance the growth of the biomass, its natural balances or its evolutionary progression. The only human value to the world’s natural environment is species decomposition as mulch for the planet’s grand scheme, the same as a stick.

Unfortunately, on its path to mulch, the human stick exudes bile and poison and extinction to any environment around it. As Roundup is to vegetation, humans are to the environment.

The mariner, in spirit at least, has evolved into a minimalist. Three cheers to the ten million homestead families in the United States alone who have chosen to escape from the grist mill of human economies and who have returned to living only as the world around them will tolerate. Three cheers for the Amish who have sensed a limit to what nature will tolerate. There is no profit in nature, only balance. Ignored by the human species in pursuit of profit, the planet will tolerate only so much. The human species may end up being mulch, like a stick.

It is proven that humans alone are responsible for the extinction of 16,000 species since 1850. It is the combustion engine and energy production that has led to climate change, with seas rising more rapidly every year and forcing devastating shifts in weather patterns around the world. Human efforts in chemistry have improved war to the extent that a nuclear bomb can eliminate life, human and otherwise, in an entire city in one day.

Finally, artificial intelligence, a human contrivance, likely will eliminate the independent spirit of the human species. As independence fades, mulching grows nearer.

Ancient Mariner

 

Thoughts as the Shelter-in Continues

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Mariner is fortunate that for the moment his financial status is sufficient, his curiosity in social studies has not waned and there are more physical chores than may be achievable in the gardens, home repair and shop projects. He is truly fortunate. Still, mariner like millions around the world is stifled by the lock downs, the isolation, the fear, the diminished ability to live a normal life.

Taking note of the television’s creation of slowly moving landscapes and the screensavers on the computer, mariner has declared his large living room window his own screensaver. He sits for periods of time noting that his screensaver has loops of viewing just as the landscapes do. There is the woman who walks her two little piles of dog hair in the morning and in the evening; there is a high school runner who will pass the window three times in half an hour; there are the three children who ride their bicycles to the nearby playground and back again; golf carts pass on their way to the golf course and back; UPS and FEDEX pass each day. Just like the landscapes, mariner has watched the summer turn into fall and now into winter. The meditation crowd has nothing on the mariner!

The problem is that mariner’s brain takes these screensaver moments to think about reality, economy, cultural collapse and impending issues that mariner’s readers are tired of hearing. To wit:

A book, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty (2013) by D. Acemoglu and J.A. Robinson, suggests that a nation can be too wealthy and therefore become susceptible to moral degeneration and economic weakness. Mariner is reminded of a series of tests with mice done in the 1960s. The mice had all the comforts possible: food, water, playgrounds, little nest apartments, etc. Eventually, the mice showed growing signs of disrespect, abuse, gang discrimation and even rape and murder.

The key factor for human societies was that the population has overthrown an authoritative plutocracy and spread the wealth to the population (AKA democracy). American citizens are experiencing this phenomenon. To be brief, consider Lori Loughlin spending $500 thousand and lying about her daughter’s athletic prowess to get her daughter into the appropriately prestigious university. Pondering at his screensaver, mariner wonders whether the rise in college tuition is because more people have the wherewithal to pay – making each seat in the university a scarcity versus market competition. Is this how the economy weakens? It has been proven that elite universities are attended only by the economic elite. Is this why colleges of lesser prestige are failing – the price doesn’t justify the reward?

It doesn’t take much imagination to recognize the disruptive nature of this behavior as it relates to economic class. Mariner has cited several times that the labor class has been deprived of sharing in the wealth since 1980; hence Donald’s Base. Humans are mammals, too – just like mice.

Maybe it’s better not to watch the screensaver too long.

Ancient Mariner

Don’t forget to dot the I

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Many, many years ago mariner knew a woman who was raised deep in the back country of Tennessee. In her forties, she was not literate. Don’t surmise that she was unintelligent or otherwise had shortcomings; actually, she was mentally sharp and had a pleasant personality. Simply, she had never been taught to read or write.

Mariner was friends with her children and he visited often. One time, he saw a grocery list she had written so her husband could buy groceries on the way home. Most of the items were single letters, marks and shapes rather than words. One drew my interest; it was a stick man, a plus sign and two whole eggs. “What does this mean?” I asked. She said it was a man plus 2 eggs – in other words, ‘mayonnaise’.

She never received the credit due for her contribution to literacy. She invented a literate style used by many young people today – emoji.

Written language began and existed for centuries without the ability to use the same printed word/sounds in different situations. The Egyptians were famous for their massive and intricate accounts of history using only graphics and images, every account unique in its documentation. The first language to use letters and words was the Indian language called Brahmi, several hundred years BCE. There were other ancient written languages that existed a millennium before that but they weren’t as organized.

Certainly civilization as we know it could not have evolved without letters and words. But today a new phenomenon is evolving and it replaces letters and words with images. Is it because it’s too much trouble for the thumb to bounce around on a tiny keyboard? Is it because reading and writing are too slow in our super fast computer society? How many folks have said, perhaps often, “reading is too slow – show me a chart or a picture.” Or perhaps, “Just give me a link, I’ll read it later.” (and never do)

Mariner ponders whether sentences, too, will disappear. Perhaps only in news broadcasts will a viewer ever read a whole sentence on the TV screen. Words, usually dressed up with color and shapes, are all one needs to understand a commercial. But why stop there?

Big Data has learned to communicate directly with our subconscious brain. The conscious brain isn’t needed much anymore. Primary education theory is moving toward natural skills training; Liberal Arts is disappearing from colleges and universities. Will literacy be next?

Ancient Mariner