Water and Monarch Butterflies

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A staggering four billion people may be facing water scarcity. A new study shows that two out of every three people on our planet simply do not have enough water to meet their basic needs.

“We find that four billion people live in areas that experience severe water scarcity at least part of the year, which is more than previously thought, based on those earlier studies done on an annual basis,” said Arjen Hoekstra, co-author of the new study, in an interview with Tech Times.

This doesn’t mean that we lack water in the world. In fact, previous studies have shown that we have more than enough water to cover all of our needs. Instead, the issue is getting the water where it needs to go; water isn’t available at all times, and isn’t always available in the places where it’s needed.

The World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) said that two-thirds of the worldwide population could suffer from water shortages by 2025. The organization said that 70 percent of available freshwater is utilized on agricultural practices but inefficient methods and faulty irrigation systems waste about 60 percent of it.[1]

  • –   –

This water shortage issue is one of many economic, environmental, and national issues that make up part of the refurbishment of the Nation’s infrastructure. Further, other nations also must come to terms with the policies and practices of water distribution. The global population already is experienced in the policies and practices of managing oil – another commodity; practices include war, immoral business practices and hoarding profits. The difference is that human beings are fortunate if they live as long as five days without water; oil, by comparison, is a convenience. How much more intense would be the battle over water rights?

Another serious issue that can be lumped under American infrastructure is the large issue of global warming. If, in fact, the planet’s oceans will raise an average of nine feet at the shoreline, Trillions of dollars will be lost at beachfront destinations, factories, homes, and utility facilities. There is no organized plan to deal with this catastrophe; there is no technology to deal with this catastrophe. Twenty-foot berms and flood gates like the ones used in Louisiana don’t stand a chance.

At the Bing/News website is a lot of charted information and historical comparisons of temperature that are highly informative.

See:

http://www.bing.com/search?q=January+global+temperature+record&filters=tnTID%3a%22EBCB2A1C-158D-452c-AFDD-1AD4FF97E939%22+tnVersion%3a%221295326%22+segment%3a%22popularnow.carousel%22+tnCol%3a%2210%22+tnOrder%3a%22c049ee40-830e-4fe7-b380-32bd3b9a163e%22&efirst=8&FORM=HPNN01ularnow.carousel%22+tnCol%3a%2210%22+tnOrder%3a%22c049ee40-830e-4fe7-b380-32bd3b9a163e%22&efirst=8&FORM=HPNN01

 

REFERENCE SECTION

Some readers may be put off by the name “Aljazeera” and may find that there is more news about Middle Eastern conflict than may be of interest. However, don’t throw the baby out with the bath; even if the television broadcast is not to your liking, the Aljazeera website is deliberately American in its reporting thanks to a separate media branch located in the US and a staff of Americans. Aljazeera’s Indepth section has an independent view of the American scene which often provides independent insights about the US. See: http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/02/vote-donald-trump-elections-republican-160210114053274.html?utm_source=Al+Jazeera+English+Newsletter+%7C+Weekly&utm_campaign=420320dfb2-weekly_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e427298a68-420320dfb2-224505437

Mariner mentioned this next topic last year about this time. This is a reminder. 90% of Monarch Butterflies are gone. The issue is that between weed killers in rural areas and not much space in urban areas, the milkweed plant is disappearing. Planting a few milkweeds here and there will help the Monarch more than one would expect. If you want to raise Monarchs – a bit more effort than just planting milkweed – see:

http://www.monarchwatch.org/rear/

Mariner planted several milkweed plants among the shrubbery. For a good selection of websites and techniques, search “feeding monarch butterflies.”

Be prepared for an onslaught of milkweed eating beetles. They are bright orange and there will be so many the milkweed disappears under the pile of beetles. For a broad education on the Monarch and the milkweed, see:

http://www.extension.iastate.edu/news/2005/jul/072201.htm

How to control Milkweed Bug, see:

http://www.missouribotanicalgarden.org/gardens-gardening/your-garden/help-for-the-home-gardener/advice-tips-resources/pests-and-problems/insects/plant-bugs/milkweed-bugs.aspx

A good site for how to grow milkweed is:

http://www.gardenguides.com/89349-plant-grow-milkweed.html

[1] http://www.techtimes.com/articles/133631/20160215/4-billion-people-face-water-shortage-rising-populations-agriculture-drive-water-demand.htm

Ancient Mariner

 

Anyone seen any Good Economic News?

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The mariner searches continuously for good economic news. Good news is hard to find. It was C.S. Lewis who said, “If you look for truth, you may find comfort in the end; if you look for comfort you will not get either comfort or truth…” In the opinion of many top drawer economists – especially international economists – Growth in national economies will be sparse if even possible. Generally, the opinion of economists is that the US is in better shape since the 2008 recession than the rest of the world. But, as Satyajit Das says in his book, The Age of Stagnation; Why Perpetual Growth is Unattainable, the US is in bad shape, too.

Almost universally, economists warn that the US is still fooling itself, that is, our leaders, banks and citizens still hold out for some unknown event that will sustain our current standard of living. Statistically, we already know our children will not have as good a life as their parents have had; the ‘fringe benefits’ of the older generation, such as pensions, comfortable salaries, union benefits, and the idea that retirement is an automatic reward for life’s labors, may be meager if these benefits exist at all.

The big bank situation still remains an issue; banks still gamble in hedge funds and other questionable investments to compensate for slowing growth in the US economy. Our nation sits at a point similar to Japan and Iceland which were hard hit by the recession. Japan still has not recovered and suffers a flat GNP today; Iceland actually went bankrupt trying to hold up an empty economy. Both nations have begun a slow recovery only after government, business and the citizenry realized their coffers were empty and took painfully austere steps to pay back the national debt (and personal lifestyle debt) used to prop up failed economies, reduce the standard of living for everyone, and suffer inflation (which has the effect of cheapening the currency therefore making debt dollars less expensive).

There is a possible light at the end of the US tunnel: many economists believe that the US has enough wealth, especially through taxation reform, to have a bit of cash to invest in a massive upgrade of the nation’s infrastructure and also open new growth markets associated with renewable energy and, through scientific and technological resources most nations do not have, reduce energy practices that destroy the environment.

As if copying the French Revolution handbook, GOP presidential candidates struggle to own the prestige of the Christian Church and undercut secular entitlements at the same time. Definitely an ethical oxymoron; where is Joan when you need her? The democrat candidates support the idea that the unknown event may occur, bringing peace and harmony back to the middle class. At least there is a possible event suggested by the economists, that is, tax reform, infrastructure, and renewable energy, but readers must not forget the words of C.S. Lewis. The truth we will find is that the US and its citizens have been borrowing for years to sustain an unsustainable standard of living. The standard of living for everyone will take a hit while that debt is paid off.

Ancient Mariner

Blame it on the Elections

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By now, most readers know the mariner is influenced by three alter egos: Chicken Little, a character quick to feel that the world is in crisis and no one will help; Prophet Amos, a character with distinct disapproval of the ways of human beings, chastising irresponsibility on every front; Guru, a way-out thinker who becomes lost in ethereal pondering and cannot fathom that Homo sapiens still exists. Reality and the Cosmos are so much larger than the self serving indulgence of human beings that the whole Earthly mess is just an insignificant phenomenon – an indifferent event on a Solar System planet drifting somewhere in the Milky Way Galaxy.

There are other influences, primarily interpersonal alertness, an appreciation of tasteless humor, and an accumulation of experiences across a lifetime.

Concentrate all these egos and experience into a very short timeframe surrounded by incompetence and disregard for very important social activity, and the mariner becomes depressed. What Chicken Little, Amos and Guru find significant is irrelevant to the masses, to friends and neighbors. No doubt, depression is common among many during election time.

With eight Presidential candidates remaining, mariner fears the worst. None qualify in his mind to deal with the plight of American humanity – indeed all of humanity. His acquaintances, who by and large are bright, insightful people, do not feel the need to respond to crisis, irresponsibility, or endangered culture; it is enough to vote their preferred person (likely limited to their own political party) while disregarding the fact that democracy has all but disappeared and, given our candidate choices, will continue to disappear.

There’s always the millennials who still trust in unbridled dreams of the future. But Amos does not buy this; they are just young Homo sapiens – same as their ancestors. Further, by 2100, the African continent alone will grow 6 billion more humans adding to gross overcrowding and further disintegration of the Earth’s biosphere.

All this aside, which is the best candidate of a poor lot? Mariner has great difficulty deciding – knowing that the great issues of his alter egos will go untended no matter the choice. We must turn to small victories of great importance: Can the voters replace a 1985 Congress with one that can function in 2016? Amos has his doubts.

Ancient Mariner

 

The Morning Line February 13 2016

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The Morning Line February 13 2016
Here’s the morning line out of Vegas:
Hillary Clinton
 
1/100
 
99%
 
Donald Trump
 
8/1
 
12%
 
Bernie Sanders
 
8/1
 
12%
 
Marco Rubio
 
9/1
 
10%
 
Jeb Bush
 
17/1
 
5½%
 
Ted Cruz
 
18/1
 
5%
 
Michael Bloomberg
 
28/1
 
3½%
 
John Kasich
 
50/1
 
2%
 
Joe Biden
 
66/1
 
1½%
 
Ben Carson
 
750/1
 
Negligible
 
Carly Fiorina
 
750/1
 
Negligible
 
Rand Paul
 
-
 
Suspended campaign
 
Martin OMalley
 
-
 
Suspended campaign
 
Rick Santorum
 
-
 
Suspended campaign
 
Mike Huckabee
 
-
 
Suspended campaign
 
Chris Christie
 
-
 
Suspended campaign

Betting $100 on Hillary will win the reader $1. Marco is back where he was two weeks ago: 4th place. As mentioned previously, Ted continues to be unpopular with the betting crowd, dropping from 4th to 5th. Bernie held his odds but moved to a tie for 2nd with Donald. John Kasich leaped from 200/1 to 50/1 but still ranks below Michael Bloomberg.

Ben and Carley should cash out at this point and save some money.

The big day to reflect long-term odds will be after March 1, the day when eight states hold their primaries. Most of the states are in the southern part of the US.

Swing states–also called purple states or battleground states–hold 85 electoral votes, more than enough to tip the balance in either party’s favor:

Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. 

Ancient Mariner


					

		
		
	


				
					
	

		

						
A Government of the People….

			
						

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The mariner is concerned that some readers passed on the post about oligarchy. Philosophically and pragmatically, oligarchy is a nemesis to democracy. The extreme separation of financial class is a dangerous indicator that Americans are losing the right to govern themselves. One need only read the causes of the French Revolution[1] to have an eerie sense of the same thing all over again.


It is not an accident that the republican party is conflicted between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz; it is not an accident that Bernie Sanders has awakened such large numbers of democrats. As the American population moves left,[2] American governments are run by ninety percent incumbent officials – more or less elected for life and representative of a culture long gone from today’s social awareness. Already, the concept of electing representatives of ourselves has disappeared. The major reason is that too many elected officials are tied to bribery by those who can afford to bribe, namely the wealthy class and corporations. That the Supreme Court could envision that money is free speech is a significant indicator that oligarchy is alive and well.


Imagine a government where our representatives could not receive financial support except from the Federal Election Commission. That one change would require those who campaign for office to be more attentive toward their jurisdictions. Turnover may happen often enough that we may not need term limits.


In any case, the next President will be a different kind of leader. The next job for citizens is to elect fresh representatives in Congress – wholesale!


Ancient Mariner


 


[1] See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_French_Revolution


[2] See: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/why-america-is-moving-left/419112/


 

					

		
		
	


				
					
	

		

						
What is Oligarchy?

			
						

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Oligarchy is a philosophical word like democracy, authoritarian, and monarchy. Philosophical words are hard to illustrate in every day, what-does-it-do terms. However, thanks to the New York Times, an article appeared in the November 29, 2015 edition that captured oligarchy as a political operation that can be compared to political behavior readers are more familiar with from news coverage, elections, and economic headlines.


It is a must read for all readers. The article illustrates how very wealthy individuals band together, using immense amounts of cash and influence to interrupt what otherwise would be normal democratic elections. In the State of Illinois, backed by a group of billionaires primarily from banking and investment firms, Bruce Rauner was elected Governor.


“Unprecedented political spending helped
         elect a fresh-faced financier. But his ideological
         vision has unsettled many in the state.”


“….The richest man in Illinois does not often give speeches. But on a warm spring day two years ago, Kenneth C. Griffin, the billionaire founder of one of the world’s largest hedge funds, rose before a black-tie dinner of the Economic Club of Chicago to deliver an urgent plea to the city’s elite….


Their response came quickly. In the months since, Mr. Griffin and a small group of rich supporters — not just from Chicago, but also from New York City and Los Angeles, southern Florida and Texas — have poured tens of millions of dollars into the state, a concentration of political money without precedent in Illinois history.


….Their wealth has forcefully shifted the state’s balance of power. Last year, the families helped elect as governor Bruce Rauner, a Griffin friend and former private equity executive from the Chicago suburbs, who estimates his own fortune at more than $500 million. Now they are rallying behind Mr. Rauner’s agenda: to cut spending and overhaul the state’s pension system, impose term limits and weaken public employee unions…..”


This revealing article continues with charts, background interviews of the top 1%, and side articles expanding the subject of political influence by the extremely wealthy. As a movement, the super-wealthy are taking increasing interest in American politics. The reader – and any common citizen – will be alarmed at the brutality of their public policies on the American people.


The behavior of Oligarchy is clearly defined. Yes, a must read article. See:


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/30/us/politics/illinois-campaign-money-bruce-rauner.html?ribbon-ad-idx=3&rref=politics&module=Ribbon&version=origin&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Politics&pgtype=article&_r=1


Ancient Mariner

					

		
		
	


				
					
	

		

						
Two Phenomena that will force Change in Our Economy

			
						

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The mariner mentioned recently that he was investigating the rapidity of change in marketplace products. The research on this subject has uncovered a wide ranging impact on culture and economy; the mariner still researches this subject. So far, two themes prevail throughout: Replacing current products with new products at an ever increasing pace is not a substitute for growth in an economy. The second theme is more volatile – global economy in 2020 will be in a state of worldwide depression – or not. Economists’ opinions are divided by predictions of what markets may emerge.


In this post, mariner examines whether new products are a substitute for growth in the US economy.


Since the late eighties, technical age nations have been exposed to a continuous revolution of new products displacing old ones before the old ones are old or culturally displaced. The obvious leader in this phenomenon is the 4G cell phone; Apple is the prominent example with its iPhone devices. Rapid replacement has affected marketing psychology across many sectors primarily as a spinoff of the iPhone; for example, virtually every marketplace can now be reached by an APplication promoted as an upgrade in service – and cost. The question arises, is this activity progress or is it disruption?


On a larger scale, communication providers and content providers are merging to reconfigure the business model for television/Internet viewing. Further, many companies, especially technology companies, are leveraging “cloud storage” as a new source of income from the same customer base that already exists. Again, the question is asked, is this activity progress or is it disruption? Is this activity a new market or is it simply reshuffling the deck of the same market, that is, is the new “profit” really a boost to the Gross National Product?


Yes, this is boring stuff. All this “product” development is laid over a saturated market. It is comparable to raising the rent on the same house; it is a hidden inflation factor more than it is new product income. The citizenry experiences a lot of activity and feels more secure about the future because gasoline prices are down and there is more discretionary cash in the household budget. This attitude may be unwarranted.


The technology industry is on hold at the moment waiting for the next product disruption to occur. Economists sense, however, that the next wave of products will be affordable only to a smaller market of higher income folks. This may cause tech company layoffs. Matched with continuously smaller job market opportunities, less than viable oil prices, and Federal/state debt, economists fear another recession no matter who is elected President.


Add to the pile of worries the terrible condition of US infrastructure – not only light rail, bridges and roads but new distribution technology for energy grids, water, and high speed communications, speculation about a downturn cannot be ignored. The US is not out of the forest, yet. We’ll have to wait for the next President and Congress to have a chance at avoiding a downturn.


REFERENCE SECTION


The Age of Stagnation: Why Perpetual Growth is Unattainable and the Global Economy is in Peril by Das, Satyajit.


A good website to add to the reader’s regular review of business trends is:


http://www.economywatch.com/news/Recession-Signs-Growing-Employers-Cut-Jobs-Factory-Orders-Fall0205.html


Clayton M. Christianson published The Innovator’s Dilemma in 1997. Christianson is the author who penned the word “disruption.” The book deals with the manner in which new, young companies disrupt older companies by producing cheaper products that have more demand. His primary example is the laptop computer displacing the market of larger mainframe computer companies.


Ancient Mariner

					

		
		
	


				
					
	

		

						
Where is our Light?

			
						

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The mariner was watching one of Joseph Campbell’s lectures on DVD last evening; it was the one about uniting with the myth beyond the physical world. He used a simple analogy that prepares one’s mind to grasp the concept:


You are in a school room at night. There are a number of light bulbs on at the ceiling. The room is bright with light. Campbell asks, “Are you a light bulb or are you the light? A light bulb is a physical thing. If one burns out, you simply replace it. What is more important is the light. Without light, there is no use for bulbs.” This analogy was his way of saying that we bulbs must be more than ourselves; we must reach beyond incandescence and become the purpose that lies beyond the physical body – the essence of why we exist.


Opening a post with this deep analogy may stop the reader from reading further. Mariner offers apologies. Every culture from the dawn of human awareness to every global, regional and tribal culture today has sought and continues to seek a transcendent relationship with a source of meaning beyond the physical world. Campbell suggests the western world has lost its myth – that our bulb glows but there is no light. This loss is the source of our vague sense of consternation and is the source of our disconnection from who we are supposed to be – not only as individuals but as part of our human society and as a part of a greater universe. We have a vague feeling of being disconnected. One may come to the point that they stop to think, “How do I know that I have fulfilled my role, my responsibility, my destiny?”


In religious context, becoming the light is the same as metamorphosis. One transcends the physical world and perceives the universality of existence. The transcendent event at the end of Jesus’ life is a supreme example of transformation – freeing consciousness from the constraints of the body. The mythology of most religions suggests this event occurs upon death although it can be represented by extreme examples of heroism and self sacrifice.


The conundrum for western civilization is to define an integrated combination of personal role and morality, societal obligation and ethic, and a value for universal existence.


Joseph Campbell said that myth and science must grow together, that both are an awareness of the mythic universe. In the western world today, what kind of bulb are we? Where is our light?


 


REFERENCE SECTION


Election Projection is a website dedicated to the 2016 campaign for President. Dozens of articles examine the campaign from every direction. The website has a full history of polls, analysis of each candidate and observations about each primary – a veritable mall for readers who want to indulge. See:


http://www.electionprojection.com/


Ancient Mariner


 

					

		
		
	


				
					
	

		

						
Democratic Debate in New Hampshire

			
						

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The mariner is pleased with the debate between Bernie and Hillary. For the first time in any 2016 presidential debate, republican or democrat, the voter was given a clear view of the personality and talents each candidate will bring to the office of President in 2016.


The heart of each candidate, that is, their desire to deliver to the electorate what is most needed by that electorate, is identical. Both are champions of human need, economic reform, and what’s best for the forgotten majority.


For the first time, the agenda of each candidate became clear. Bernie intends to fix the systemic issues that have led to oligarchy. Banks, Corporations, tax reform, bribery and collusion in the election process, and a plan to attack gerrymandering, are at the top of Bernie’s list. By fixing the political abuses, proper legislation and discretionary funding will right themselves and deliver programs to the people. However, Bernie will be prone to compromise when it comes to program specifics.


Hillary intends to develop programs first. She will attack current legislation that defeats the spirit of discretionary funding. Hillary will prioritize human rights, expand education funding, and reduce medical costs – but not through single payer. By fixing specific programs, the Ship of State trims its sails more in line with public interest. However, Hillary will be prone to compromise when it comes to fixing the oligarchy.


If the voter is interested in the programs of government, then Hillary sounds more appealing. If the voter is interested in the policies of governance, then Bernie sounds more appealing. The mariner is reminded of one of his father’s pop psychology tools: Bernie is a why-how person while Hillary is a how-what person1. That being the case, there are far more how-what folks in the population than why-how. For no other reason than the difference between their personalities, Hillary may fare better once the primaries leave liberal states and head into the prairie.


On such subliminal attributes, political success rises and falls.


REFERENCE SECTION


1For more detail on Pop’s Psychology, see post from December 21, 2015.


The Congress has ninety days to vote for or against a fast track of the TPP trade agreement. Mariner is firmly opposed to fast track and prefers that the TPP be examined by Congress – that’s as close as citizen review is possible. Note that the majority of presidential candidates, including both democrats, are opposed to the trade agreement. For a good, clear, and easy read about the TPP, see:


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/12/business/unpacking-the-trans-pacific-partnership-trade-deal.html?_r=0


President Obama is in favor of the TPP because, in his opinion, the TPP makes the United States a central player in future Asian economics, dampening the future influence of China. All well and good – but at what price to the common citizen? Corporations will have unfettered control of profits, taxes, human rights, and the future wellbeing of nine nations.


Ancient Mariner


 

					

		
		
	


				
					
	

		

						
The Morning Line – February 3 2016

			
						

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Here’s the morning line out of Vegas:






Hillary Clinton
10/11
91%




Marco Rubio
3/1
33%




Donald Trump
7/1
14%




Bernie Sanders
8/1
12%




Ted Cruz
16/1
6%




Jeb Bush
50/1
2%




Michael Bloomberg
50/1
2%




Joe Biden
80/1
1.25%




Chris Christie
100/1
1%




John Kasich
200/1
½%




Ben Carson
700/1
1/10 of Even less than less than 1%




Carly Fiorina
800/1
About the size of a human skin cell




Rand Paul
999/1
infinitesimal




Martin OMalley
250/1
Suspended campaign




Rick Santorum
999/1
Suspended campaign




Mike Huckabee
2000/1
Suspended campaign






Hillary held the same odds as always; interestingly, one bookie has taken bets for Hillary NOT to win the 2016 election at even odds. The biggest positive shift was in favor of Marco who jumped from 10/1 to 3/1, moving from fourth place to second. The biggest negative shift was Donald who dropped from 5/6 to 7/1 moving to third place. Ted continues to be unpopular with the betting crowd, staying in fifth place despite his win in Iowa; odds dropped from 12/1 to 16/1. Bernie held his odds but dropped one spot to fourth.


As to candidates with longer odds, most betting houses have stopped posting a morning line; the listed odds were taken from just two bookies.


 


Ancient Mariner