Monthly Archives: December 2015

The Big Race – 12-31

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For readers who don’t frequent bookie sites, the mariner provides today’s odds versus two weeks ago that a candidate will be elected President.

Two Weeks Ago     ————-     12-31-2015

Hillary Clinton 8/11 72% 8/11 72%
Marco Rubio 5/1 20% 11/2 18%
Donald Trump 8/1 12½% 8/1 12½%
Ted Cruz 12/1 8% 10/1 10%
Jeb Bush 22/1 4½% 22/1 4½%
Bernie Sanders 28/1 3½% 20/1 5%
Chris Christie 33/1 3% 33/1 3%
Ben Carson 200/1 ½% 200/1 ½%
John Kasich 200/1 ½% 250/1 2/5%
Rand Paul 200/1 ½% 200/1 ½%
Martin O’Malley 250/1 2/5% 250/1 2/5%
Mike Huckabee 250/1 2/5% 500/1 2/10%
Carley Fiorina 250/1 2/5% 500/1 2/10%

Despite a few dropping in odds and only Bernie improving a smidge to move ahead of Jeb, positions have not changed in two weeks. Of course, two weeks is not meaningful before the primaries and November. Still, bettors with money where their mouth is instead of a free pollster are settling in. Take into account the democrats have an edge in the Electoral College (1.8 votes – typically enough to win) and the race is Hillary’s to lose. Too bad the DNC deliberately hides their debates to avoid public exposure to Bernie. All’s fair in love, war, and politics.

To reiterate, as we enter the primary season, give some thought to the undercard, that is, the reader’s senators, representatives, state legislators, governors and mayors. Many states are so tightly bound by grotesquely gerrymandered voting districts that the winners can be predicted without voting. This is not a healthy sign for a democracy. Only nine states are swing states – worth 130 Electoral College votes. They are:

Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and New Hampshire. In the last election, Colorado was the state that brought it  home for the democratic candidate.

217 electoral votes are necessary to win the Presidential election. If the reader wants to track changes, a good site is: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ or http://www.bing.com/search?q=which+states+tossup+for+presidential+election&qs=n&form=QBLH&pq=which+states+tossup+for+presidential+election&sc=0-19&sp=-1&sk=&cvid=CC555DFBC2CF4D5F88AFB548D98F4E22

This is a very important election. The mariner strongly, strongly urges the reader to attend your caucus or primary. Then, especially strongly, vote in November.

Ancient Mariner

IMF Says Poor Economic Outlook

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The International Monetary Fund chair, Christine Lagarde, says global economy will be poor in 2016 citing among other things that the West has an ageing population. That, coupled with very low oil prices affecting oil producing nations and China struggling with its own economy, Lagarde suggests growth will be spotty at best.
Western nations, including the USA, should be willing to receive as many immigrants as possible from any source to balance their populations. Already, extremely conservative economists are predicting total economic failure in the US and predict that next year is the last year for Social Security (SS). This is not likely, of course, but we all know that the fund is in trouble for a variety of reasons including an ageing population.
Many financial structures within the nation’s discretionary spending group, most of which is SS followed by health, are in need of restructuring and refunding. Al Gore campaigned for President saying he would put SS funds in a black box not to be transferrable to other uses; this should have been done from FDR’s time! The issue with opening Pandora ’s Box of restructuring SS is that the republican party wants to throw it to the wolves of Wall Street or do away with it altogether. Democrats, on the other hand, want to reinvest in SS by throwing borrowed money at SS without fixing its issues.
Restructuring SS requires a number of things:
Put a cap on coverage. Wealthier folks and retirees who have other supplemental income, do not need SS. Require payroll deductions for employers and employees for all hours worked, not just for full time. Remove some of the expanded coverage that belongs in other programs, for example, disability. A difficult but culturally necessary task is to develop new employment regulations, job descriptions and programs that keep older employees in their jobs as primary contributors to production; today, it is common for employees in their fifties and older to be pushed out before retirement age while SS qualification is raised to older and older ages. Business should return to its role of offering some form of retirement which funds can’t be used for other purposes – a barrier removed by the Reagan administration. Finally, the tax relationship between SS and earned income should be modified to treat both as earned income, thereby refunding SS as retirees increase earned income. Even better would be to add a graduated SS tax on investment income.
Across the board every discretionary program is long overdue for a restructuring of the tax code. Income and business taxes are grotesquely skewed to favor the wealthier end of the spectrum. Part of this issue is to disassemble the oligarchy and give governments back to voters – which is a subject of its own.
Further, returning to Lagarde’s prediction for a spotty economic future and assuming SS is not rescued, our next generation will not have SS. Further, do not be drawn into consumer debt regardless of what banks say. If the reader is young enough, use the 401k or SEP to its fullest extent. Establish a savings and investment budget matching no less than 10% of gross income; establish a ROTH IRA and pay in your limit each year. Chances are SS will be trimmed back in one way or another for all of us.
Ancient Mariner

Signs of Citizen Rebellion

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The mariner is challenged about the dark side of plutocracy suggesting that the citizen and labor rebellions described in history do not exist today – a challenge that has merit. First, Mariner wrote a recent post that said watching culture change was too slow, unfocused, and too broad to watch closely. What everyone notices, however, are incidents that seem unusual; incidents are signs of cultural shift but one must step back to measure broad circumstances, that is, to observe cultural shift.

Second, here using extremes to demonstrate differences, the wave of bankruptcy that occurred in Massachusetts in 1786 was caused by the same manipulation of mortgages that caused the recession in 2008. Yet, times were greatly different in a cultural sense. One doesn’t have to grab the shotgun in the corner and march down to the bank offices and blow the door off or threaten the courts with physical harm if they didn’t clear the docket and get out – though this older behavior seems more gratifying. Note that the age of one corner, one gun has returned; is that an indicator of dissatisfaction with government, concern with exposure to physical harm and mistrust on a grand scale? Today, is this is a form of rebellion framed in a more mature culture with millions of citizens?

Continuing in today’s “mature” culture, has society allowed law enforcement to deal with the underclass just as the sheriffs in 1920 that shot first and shot again to keep dissidents in line? Has one noticed the relative innocence of the victims and the number of bullets used in today’s shootings? Were the riots in Ferguson and Baltimore not a replication of labor riots in 1920?

Is denying a share of the “company’s” profits to the workers who were virtual slaves in 1885 the same as denying worker raises in line with inflation and productivity since 1980 – yet raising prices at what constitutes modern Company stores so much that the husband and the wife have to work?

Today, using collusion between government and corporations permits blatant destruction of unions by using the “right to work” law. (This is bordering on short-fuse behavior in some industries)

Has one noticed, in a more mature culture, that the “Company” (corporations) has the same resistance to regulations and imposed responsibility for citizens?

Has one noticed the war-mongering bully who leads the republican party in the 2016 Presidential campaign? His followers certainly are in a rebellious mood – particularly toward a do nothing government fully owned by corporations.

Has one noticed the history-making difference between fat cat wealth and flaunted waste compared to public wages that oppress sharing success with the disappearing middle class? Does one remember the “Occupy” movement that protested abuses in Wall Street? Mariner suspects that when the middle class becomes sufficiently abused, there will be more outbreaks over the cost of living and the loss of a great democratic dream.

The mariner makes the case that we live in different times than we did 100 years ago. Still, even in today’s litigious culture, the issues are simmering and rebellion grows more and more obvious.

A lot hangs on changes in Congress, state legislators, Governors and especially who the next President will be.

REFERENCE SECTION

Regarding the puzzle from the previous post: The question was posited “How was the conman able to correctly project whether stocks would go up or down ten weeks in a row?”

The conman started with a large mailing list, perhaps 1,500 recipients. To one half he sent a flyer saying the price would go down; to the other half he sent a flyer saying the price would go up. The next day, he discarded the half that was wrong; to the half that was right, a week later he repeated the process with half saying “up” and half saying “down.” Again, the next day he discarded the half that was wrong; a week later, he divided the correct remainder in half sending half with an “up” prediction, the other half a prediction that was “down.” This continued for ten weeks. Eventually, a mark would respond willing to make a large investment through the broker – an amount that never reaches the stock market because the conman absconds with the cash. From How Not to Be Wrong: the Power of Mathematical Thinking, by Jordon Ellenberger.

Ancient Mariner.

Plutocracy – The Dark Side

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The mariner used the word ‘plutocracy’ recently and realized it was an empty word but growing in importance. 99.9% of US citizens have not witnessed an armed workers rebellion since the coal miner’s rebellion near the turn of the twentieth century; who has memories of Warren G. Harding? If, in the next two to three years, we experience another deep recession or the travesty Ron Paul predicts in his commercials, we citizens may suffer hardship in large enough numbers to take on the police, the National Guard, the hired thugs called ‘detectives’ and the property of the corporate bosses who hired the thugs. That’s how bad the coal miner rebellion was – and there have been similar confrontations in the twentieth century.

This is not just a phenomenon of America’s recent past. Plutocracy was around in 1786 resulting in Shay’s rebellion.

US history books recount the colonial years with events that follow a narrow gauge track describing the wonderful advances in government, politics, and business. But day-to-day life was hell. None of the working class or laborers had any protections that exist today. Working class jobs had no required wage, no safety requirements, no health requirements, no limits on hours, and no limits on hiring the youngest child at the least expensive wage. Further, many businesses, especially isolated ones like coal and lumber companies, had a ‘company store’ which employees were required to use to buy groceries and supplies. This unfair game of very low wages and very high prices meant that no employee had money of consequence and eventually was deep in debt to the store. As Ernie Ford sang in ‘Sixteen Tons’ in 1955:

You load sixteen tons, what do you get?

Another day older and deeper in debt.

Saint Peter, don’t you call me, ’cause I can’t go;

I owe my soul to the company store…

A pleasant song sung by a nice person – all clean and neat in his string tie. The real life experience could not have been more oppressive. Business, politics, and law enforcement worked together to contain worker resistance. Troublemakers often were gunned down in the middle of the street. Employees received little cash because they had their Company Store bill taken out first. They owned no property because they were required to live in very cheap business-owned housing. The truth of the matter is they were slaves – not an iota’s difference.

The real history of citizens is not recorded in history books. The next paragraph is a quote from http://www.alternet.org/ Alternet.org is a website that posts liberal and progressive articles. The author is writing about today.

“The sedimentary nature of power fears the chaos of protest. What the plutocrats know as stability, the middle class knows as convenience. Struggle is unstable and inconvenient. It pushes here and there, seeking ruptures in the fabric of the present. Success is not guaranteed. What is clear, however, is that the time of the present, of the possible, has become irrelevant to millions of people. They are seeking the time of the future.”

What brought the mariner to this subject was the feeling that the word plutocracy (the rich control society) did not have the meaningful clout that it should have. The more he pondered why the word seemed out of sort, the more he realized that society in twenty-first century USA is a full-blown plutocracy in every respect – and it carries the same threat of rebellion.

When he watched a new film called Plutocracy: Political Repression in the USA, mariner made note of how identical today’s oligarchy is to the class conflict during terrible rebellions in the past. Worker rebellions occurred under conditions exactly like the conditions that exist today. In fact, a housing bankruptcy occurred in 1786 in Massachusetts just like the one that brought down the US economy in 2008. Having relatively no rights, citizens back then were on their own to push back. Carrying arms, the citizens forced the banks and courthouses to close. This rebellion is in the film. The film tells the story of the workers; something seldom seen in history books. It is a free download at:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/skt261c6c2ebmnd/Plutocracy-%20Political%20Repression%20In%20The%20U.S.A..mp4?dl=0

Mariner recommends that you download the film to your computer. It is free. Some may have noticed that the situation is such that the US has a poor man’s army; best trained but virtually all working class folk. Richer people don’t worry about their children going off to die in a useless war. Remember George W. Bush and his assignment to a flight squadron that never was called up? In fact, George didn’t report for a year. This situation is a classic example of plutocracy. One wonders if the US actually would have had these wars if the upper classes had to fight in them.

Another example is the continuous pressure by powerful people to eliminate government services that protect the common citizen. For example, The Environmental Protection Agency, The Atomic Energy Commission, anything proposed by Senator Elizabeth Warren to protect citizens from banking abuse, the Security Exchange Commission, The Federal Department of Agriculture, The Federal Aviation Administration, Affordable Care Act, Medicare, Medicaid, Welfare, Unemployment Insurance and Social Security. All these agencies impose regulations in behalf of public interest – and they are openly opposed by business and financial firms because they add overhead, reduce profits, and require concern for human lives – a throwaway that is easily replaced.

These behaviors are plutocracy in action. Add to this behavior salary oppression and disappearing benefits since 1968 and it feels very much like 1786 or 1920. Clearly, the voter’s future is in the hands of plutocrats.

One solution not requiring armed rebellion is to take back the government from control by the plutocrats. First is to wrest the election process from the plutocrats. Do that by requiring political campaigns to go on a diet. Remove redistricting from political control; institute term limits to anyone reaching age 70 in their next term (this ensures a more understanding official that at least can relate to changes in the nation’s gestalt); limit fund raising to the local area of representation; rewrite a fair taxing system that uses excess profit to fund a fair USA.

The mariner feels that dealing with the crooked election scheme is the first step in moving policy control back to the voters who in the past represented this nation’s moral character, that is, reinstitute democracy as the mechanism that keeps our country in a leadership role for the entire planet. We may not even have to go to war.

REFERENCE SECTION

http://www.shaysrebellion.stcc.edu/shaysapp/scene.do?shortName=Petition

The new documentary ‘Plutocracy’ is a comprehensive and powerful study of America’s early working class made up of farmers, miners and industrial laborers from Shays’ Rebellion in 1786-87, through rapid industrialization and inequality in the post Civil War 19th century era of the Robber Barons to the intense labor struggles of the 1920s.

A new book is out about common sense mathematics: How Not to Be Wrong: the Power of Mathematical Thinking, by Jordon Ellenberger. It is a nice companion to Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise. Here is a conundrum from Ellenberger’s book:

A person receives a flyer from a stock broker. It says that a certain stock will go up tomorrow. Sure enough, the next day the stock goes up. A week later, the person receives another flyer from the broker. It says a certain stock will go down tomorrow. Sure enough, the next day the stock goes down. This scenario goes on for ten weeks. The broker never makes a mistake. Needless to say, the person is ready to entrust the broker with a large investment – but it is a con. How is the broker arranging always to be right?

The answer will be provided in the next post if you haven’t worked it out.

Ancient Mariner

Giving Humans their own Epoch

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Open any general history book and the reader will find humankind’s history broken down into specific eras, ages, epochs, and periods. For example, we all know the Christian era, 0-2015AD (in history books, dates are important). We also know about the American Civil War, 1860-1865 and the Age of Enlightenment, 1620-1780. A major marker for the world is the dropping of a nuclear bomb on Hiroshima August 1945 as the beginning of the nuclear age.

Too often, and this goes back to the distant past when Homo sapiens had barely moved out of Africa, changes in period, age or era are bracketed by wars or cultural invasions. For all our centuries, our species settled major issues with violence. Easily isolated in daily news is the horrible conflict in Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Libya, Egypt, Somalia, Kenya, Nigeria, and Sudan. It is as if there are rules about implementing new eras: many people must die; massive destruction of artifacts and public buildings; horrendous attacks on the innocent – including women; trench burial plots (not only must one be killed, one must be forgotten). Perhaps wars are significant because wars have definitive start and end dates. The mariner suggests that war slows down cultural transition. It may be better to set differentiation on successful, progressive changes.

Some ages are benchmarked by advancement of a discovered thing or the adoption of some idea. For example, cotton gin, steamships and trains, automobiles, macadam road paving, electricity, airplanes, television, and the Internet. Intellectual ideas have been noted in similar fashion; consider the mathematics of Archimedes and Newton, logic of Socrates and Plato, Solar System by Galileo, and General Theory by Einstein.

It is burdensome that Homo sapiens expends significant effort on the advancement of war: chariot, trireme, trebuchet, gunpowder, armored vehicles, aircraft, rockets, and now drones. It is not difficult to divide the history of war into periods of change.

One could go on naming moments that signify a transition of some sort using endless objects, events, and ideas. Is it possible to name so many periods, phases and eras that there is no time left that is not a turning point? The mariner believes so.

Why must there be change? The quick answer is “Things change for the better, the less expensive, and the more efficient.” Comparatively, this may be true for manufactured things, for economics and general wellbeing. But the real reason for change is Homo sapiens. Humans have a brain that thrives on change. Consider other species; many trees may live unchanged until the planet changes, perhaps millions of years; the opossum is one of the oldest creatures around and the latest opossum lives the same life as the first. Monkeys and apes, for all their intelligence, haven’t changed their lifestyle nor have whales and dolphins. No other species invents puzzles for the sake of inventing puzzles. Humankind must be entertained intellectually – if only watching a television show a monkey could understand or struggling to find the unified theory in physics.

If one merges the predatory nature of humans with the ability to imagine an expansion of power, the result is greed and avarice. Further, the faster humans can attain more gratification, the more rewarding the experience. The fastest way, of course, is violence. Second to violence is cheating – still a form of violence. This behavior is in our genome. The oldest parts of our brain, the parts that go back to the primordial days of Homo sapiens, understand this behavior and react accordingly. Humans and monkeys weren’t that different then. It is the nature of evolution to carry genetic baggage forward along with newer mutations. For example, a fetus develops false gills before it develops lungs. There must have been a fish somewhere in a human’s path of evolution. If one gives greedy behavior some thought, it seems only natural that any predator must satisfy sustenance quickly or it will not thrive.

It is up to our predatory and inventive selves to manage our species. No other species can manage Homo sapiens. This is why government evolved. Even government, however, is subject to predation. It has taken the entire era of human existence to fine tune government to the point that it functions today. Obviously, there is much more tuning to be done. Unfortunately, our ability to change the status quo often means that what was good will not remain good, hence Lord Acton’s phrase ‘power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely.’

Being the premiere predator on Earth plus having an inquisitive mind has allowed humans to multiply and prosper. Humans have overcome every adversary except themselves. The mariner has written often about the effect of population growth and the destruction of Earth’s biosphere. Excessive Carbon has disrupted the atmosphere, land and oceans. The broad use of fossil fuels, which began about 1850, has changed the name of our current epoch: We were living in the Holocene Epoch until another name had to be given for our current times because humans have so changed the Earth. Now we live in the Anthropocene Epoch – named for human trashiness, abuse of living creatures, and disrupting the Earth itself.

By the end of this century, there will be nearly twice as many humans as there are today. How do we rein in ourselves? All we have is religion and government. Obviously, they haven’t been working very well. Our definitions of culture, government and faith are all we have to fix a problem that will be fixed without us if we aren’t careful.

 

REFERENCE SECTION

Let’s deal with the awkward article in front of ‘opossum.’ Is it correct to say ‘a opossum,’ ‘an opossum,’ a ‘‘possum,’ or an ‘‘possum?’ Yes. This is a singularly intriguing circumstance in our language; dictionaries and grammar sources support this odd behavior. The truth is it is determined by how the speaker chooses to pronounce the word. Proof that there is free will! If you choose ‘opossum,’ then you say ‘an;’ if you say ‘possum’ then you say ‘a.’ It’s your choice! Of course, you can call it by its official name, Didelphis Virginiana and avoid the whole thing.

Expanding the Liberal Arts mind:

A reader has offered an interesting podcast link from the book review section of the New York Times. The podcast features the year in poetry with guests reading favorite poems; about half of the 39-minute podcast is an interview with poet George Saunders. See:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/27/books/review/inside-the-new-york-times-book-review-podcast-the-year-in-poetry.html?_r=1 .

The printing press was not mentioned in the above list of inventions but certainly is one of the most important. Johannes Gutenberg invented the first western press in 1445 AD. However, independent letter blocks of wood were made by Chinese monks in 866 AD. Further, a Chinese peasant named Bi Sheng (Pi Sheng) developed the world’s first movable type. Though Sheng himself was a commoner and didn’t leave much of an historical trail, his ingenious method of printing, which involved the production of hundreds of individual characters, was well-documented. Metal movable type also was developed independently in Korea in the late 14th century. In 1377, a Korean monk named Baegun is credited with printing a compilation of Buddhist sayings using movable metal type. The two-volume book, known as “Jikji,” is believed to be the oldest book in the world printed with metal type. Unlike the West, the East did not utilize prepared type very quickly because of the complexities of Asian writing systems.

This history of printing is found on http://www.livescience.com/43639-who-invented-the-printing-press.html , a website the mariner encourages browsing readers to view periodically looking for anything of interest.

 

Administration of the iowa-mariner website.

Occasionally, a reader will ask how to find past posts. To help readers search, the POST page, typically the first that one sees, now has a menu across the top with subject headings. The mariner frequently lists a post under multiple subject headings but they should help in any case. There is a search box on the POST page and another on the subject page. Another method is to scan the posts on the right side of the page; these are sequenced by date and if the reader has an idea of when, this may be helpful as well.

Speaking of the column on the right side of the page, at the bottom is the “meta” section. Use the “login” option to create a site identity and receive notice of new postings. Your email address will never be shared with others although your login name will be how readers of the site will refer to you. Once you have subscribed, send an email to the mariner to make sure your subscription is noted at skipper@iowa-mariner.com.

Finally, the mariner has created a forum page called “The Captain’s Mast.” If any reader wants to open a dialogue with the mariner or with another reader’s replies, simply enter your comment in the Captain’s Mast.

Ancient Mariner

 

 

Silent Night, Holy Night

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The computer clock gadget has passed midnight. It is Christmas Eve. Two energies emerge at the winter solstice: simultaneously, many religions celebrate a Holy moment – a moment that can be traced back millennia to a different time but, as it always will be, the religious holidays don the trappings of the present, always keeping just enough sacrament to give a celebrant pause about the value of life.

The second energy is that which comes from sharing. Not just presents in boxes, flashy decorations, and even some sharing by traveling the cold streets to share the overflow of caroling. It also is sharing a love-energy with folks who have nothing to share themselves. It is food boxes, clothes, making arrangements for visitations to family that, but for your sharing, would never happen. It is warm food – not just at the winter solstice, but year round. It is reconnecting with scattered second cousins one hasn’t seen for decades. Gifting is a special sensation, celebrated as needs require.

The mariner takes a break from the challenges around the world, challenges between races, between cultures, between civilized and uncivilized, between politicians, between people and biomes. He provides for you a gift: A few poems that the reader may find entertaining. The poems are taken from a poetry book, Lyrical Iowa, recently published by The Iowa Poetry Association. In fact, it is the seventieth year for publishing the poetic anthology. Contents of Lyrical Iowa are taken from the results of an annual competition. Like any competition, the poetry that makes it to the book is best of breed; there are nine categories each awarding a first, second and third cash prize.

1,898 poets submitted works. 64 winners received cash prizes. The mariner is proud to say that his wife won a first-place cash reward in the “First Time Entrant Category.” Many of her relatives especially will recognize the subject of the poem:

Sailing, Summer of ‘14

The old Styrofoam sailboat has been tied up in the rafters

of the garage for more than fifty years.

We cut it down from its musty ropes and wonder if it will

disintegrate into dust.

But Styrofoam does not disintegrate. It lasts forever.

 

The sail needs a patch with duct tape and a plastic trash bag

to make it good as new. New was in 1963.

We load the boat into the truck to take it to the lake.

We unload it at the dock and wonder if it will sink.

But Styrofoam does not sink. It floats forever.

 

We set sail onto the dark water, catching the breath of the wind,

catching our breath, learning the ropes, coming about, dodging

the boom, heeling, sailing, then smoothly we turn back to the dock.

Later, we find a photograph of the same boat at the same lake

at the same dock. The man in the boat is our grandfather, younger

in 1963 than we are now.

We wonder, as we tie the boat back into the rafters,

who will sail it next time.

For time, like Styrofoam, floats forever.

Marty Miller

 

A cute poem from the Humorous Category:

Missing

No Golden Gate, London or Brooklyn

in the pages, which seemed contrary

until I finally came to realize

it was an “un-abridged” dictionary.

 

Steven Thompson, Osage

 

Remember haiku? Here are a couple of winners:

 

Lonesome last Oak leaf

Floated softly to the ground

And whispered “winter.”

 

Ellen G Danner, Woodburn

 

The ice floes stay still-

Above this frozen river

Only the Moon moves.

 

Lee Enslow, Beaver

 

Mariner wishes everyone a fine holiday. Take the opportunity suggested by Joseph Campbell: find a blissful place and love yourself for being.

Ancient Mariner

 

US – the Home of Cowards

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Donald and his xenophobic, misanthropic republican candidates are ruining our party – that is, the party of citizens who know the right thing to do. The mariner will rejoin this comment after the reader reads the next few paragraphs.

Muslim passengers defended Christian passengers during an extremist attack on a bus in Kenya on Monday.

Members of the al-Shabaab militant organization shot at a bus in Mandera, Kenya, forcing it to stop. Once the militants boarded the bus, they attempted to separate Muslim and Christian passengers, intending to kill the Christians on board, the BBC reported.

“We even gave some non-Muslims our religious attire to wear in the bus so that they would not be identified easily. We stuck together tightly,” Abdi Mohamud Abdi, a Muslim passenger, told Reuters . “The militants threatened to shoot us but we still refused and protected our brothers and sisters. Finally they gave up and left but warned that they would be back.”

The local governor, Ali Roba, confirmed the account in an interview with Daily Nation , a Kenyan publication. “They refused to separate from non-Muslims and told the attacks to kill all passengers or leave,” Roba said. There were 62 passengers on board, according to the paper.

Even though the passengers stuck together so well, two people were killed and three were injured.

MEANWHILE –

A British Muslim family heading for Disneyland was barred from boarding a flight to Los Angeles by US authorities at London’s Gatwick airport amid concerns of an American overreaction to the perceived terrorist threat.

US Department of Homeland Security officials provided no explanation for why the country refused to allow the family of 11 to board the plane even though they had been granted travel authorization online ahead of their planned 15 December flight.

Senior [British] politicians have been drawn into the case, warning that a growing number of British Muslims are being barred from the US without being told the reason for their exclusion.

MEANWHILE –

Striking photos of unity have emerged from the chaos in Egypt as Christian protesters stood together to protect Muslims as they prayed.

A group of Christians joined hands and faced out surrounding hundreds of Muslims protesters left vulnerable as they knelt in prayer. ‘Bear in mind that this was a month after Alexandria bombing where many Christians died in vain. Yet we all stood by each other.’

The suicide bombing, shortly after the New Year’s Day, killed 23 Coptic Christians, who make up 10 percent of Egypt’s 80 million person population.

MEANWHILE –

A passenger plane carrying singer Cat Stevens to Washington was diverted to another city 600 miles away yesterday so the musician could be escorted off the flight by FBI agents and sent back to Britain.

The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) said the singer, who converted to Islam and changed his name to Yusuf Islam, was denied access to the US “on national security grounds”.

Flight 919 from London to Washington was diverted to Bangor International Airport in Maine, after US security officials were told Mr Islam was aboard.

He had been allowed to board the flight after United Airlines officials initially failed to spot his name on a watch list, the TSA said. The plane, carrying about 250 passengers, was held at Bangor for more than three hours before being allowed to continue its journey to Washington.

Mr Islam was questioned and told he would have to leave the US. His 21-year-old daughter, who was travelling with him, was allowed to remain in the country.

The deputy general secretary of the Muslim Council of Britain, Mohammad Abdul Bari, expressed dismay at the US authorities’ actions.

 MEANWHILE –

Pakistani Muslims Form Human Chain To Protect Christians During Mass

Hand in hand as many as 200-300 people formed a human chain outside the St Anthony’s Church adjacent to the District Police Lines at the Empress Road, in a show of solidarity with the victims of the Peshawar church attack two weeks back, which resulted in over a 100 deaths. The twin suicide attack on All Saints church occurred after Sunday mass ended and is believed to be the country’s deadliest attack on Christians.

The mariner is embarrassed by the behavior of US citizens and the government. Sadly, these few anecdotes were in the midst of many, many more – each depicting grownup judgment – not even mentioning bravery – displayed by foreign Christians and Muslims in the face of weapons and terrorists, and on the contrary, the childish, selfish imbeciles within the US. Some are candidates running for President!!!! Allah be praised.

Chicken Little is bothered – not panicking but definitely bothered. There are two issues at stake. The first is prejudging race and culture. It happens easily all over the world but it is a coward’s folly. Is the good ol’ USA a coward? Isn’t it enough that US citizens must have a gun in every pot? Guns and deliberate racism – what a mix!

Mariner could go on but his dander is up. The least we can do is organize a neighborhood watch not for the little children but for the Muslims and their mosques. Is there a way we could contact Imams to let them know we will actively protect their members and mosques? Don’t ask police to do this job; they are too militarized as it is.

The second issue is that a very important election lay ahead. Voters must hear clearly the arguments for two political parties that will take us in opposite directions in the future. The US is on the cusp of serious modifications either way. Having racism derail common sense (AKA grownup judgment) as has so often occurred in the South, will be disastrous. The citizens with moral judgment and a sense of cultural and national identity must step up to the war mongering. Do not let the media handle it; they are incompetent. There. The mariner said it. He agrees with Donald: the media is incompetent. However, killing a reporter has never occurred to the mariner – yet – but he has a list, Glenn.

Ancient Mariner

Pop’s Pop Psychology

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The mariner learned at his father’s knee. Father was attending college at the time and mariner was the one available to hear a recounting of many of the ideas that college provided for him. Father was a fan of pop culture – over simplified descriptions of personality, organization, emotion, and many other pseudo-psychology definitions. In memory of mariner’s father, a couple are defined in this post.

A popular one that many know is that there are three kinds of people in the world: WHY people, HOW people and WHAT people. The WHY person thinks about daily life in terms of ideas. It is difficult to define a situation or make a decision until the person understands why the situation exists. A classic example is Albert Einstein. If a person is extremely WHY, a classic example is the three-toed sloth.

The HOW person thinks about daily life in terms of solutions. The HOW person is constantly reinterpreting the circumstances of life into new relationships that may, or may not, improve those circumstances. Nevertheless, a solution has been achieved. The HOW person actually makes a decent manager – all other aspects being accepted. A classic example is Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon.com. If a person is extremely HOW, a classic example is the African Honey Badger.

The WHAT person thinks about daily life in terms of procedure. Father’s favorite example was his wife’s attempt to open luggage, which often requires different steps similar to a key, coded lock, different kinds of sliding latches, zippers, etc. Confronted with a new set of luggage, the wife had to try different combinations one at a time from the beginning until one worked.

Another example, perhaps a well-known anecdote, is the woman cooking a ham. Watching her is her daughter. “Why do you cut off a chunk of the ham before you bake it?” the daughter asked. “Oh, I don’t know; that’s how my mother did it.” Later, they visit Grandma and ask why she cut off a chunk of the ham. “My pot was too small.” If a person is extremely WHAT, a classic example is the Marmoset monkey.

The truth of the matter is all people have a bit of all three behaviors. Typically, one is dominant and a second is used if the dominant one fails. However, it is impossible for WHY and WHAT to coexist.

Another pop psychology definition that father used quite often as one of his own tools (he was a professor of sociology) is the one about how people learn. Again, there are three ways a person may learn: learning with the EYES, learning with the EARS, and learning with the BODY. Learning with the EYES includes reading, watching and thinking in pictures. An eye person will learn more and be able to apply learning more efficiently if that person receives education through the eyes. One every day example is the person who watches facial expressions to understand nuance. A very simple example is to watch another person stick their finger in a fire. Having watched this, the eye person needs no explanation as to why the fire burned; the event is embedded for life and will influence decisions thereafter. Art painters and writers use eye-based intelligence.

An ear person will learn more easily by listening. The reader may take in more listening to a lecture than reading the same words from a book. Anything requiring hearing is more easily learned. For example, musicians, those who interpret nuance by hearing tones in the voice, “Tell ‘em one time and they know how to do it” are typical of those who learn best by hearing.

Finally, learning with the BODY encompasses sensitivity to body motion of any kind including dexterity, sports, dance, and touch sensitivity. A BODY person will learn more by doing; If a body person is told what to do, or is shown what to do, the instructions will not be absorbed meaningfully until the body person actually does the task. Some assembly lines may contain a majority of BODY types with their dexterity and ability to memorize hand and body movement.

The mariner’s father had many more like these two examples. Mariner is confidant the reader has a few of their own.

Ancient Mariner

 

How to Choose the Best Candidate

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The overriding philosophy of deflecting change.

Since the Viet Nam war, the theory of government management has been to stabilize and minimize disruption; candidates elected since then have been influenced by that period of populist unrest, burning bras and draft cards, young people and pacifists seeking refuge and citizenship in Canada, the March to Selma and the civil rights unrest generally; four Kent State students shot by Guardsmen;  the murder of two Kennedys and Martin Luther King Jr.; the riots around the 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago; the call out of the National Guard in many cities to contain rioting and looting; the loss of the Viet Nam war, and many more.

For the next fifty years, both liberal and conservative elected officials have clung to that philosophy. Other political and cultural needs were subordinate to the rule of stability and minimum disruption. Largely, policies were promulgated that buried dissent, supported economic stability, and, frankly, let serious issues slide rather than take action to change the status quo – climate change, water shortage, privacy and security, and a failed infrastructure went unmanaged. The mariner has referred to officials sensitive to instability and disruption as “old school” politicians. He feels that two generations of elected officials and a half-century later, the term is apropos. Whether a candidate is concerned about status quo versus new objectives and innovation is the first consideration in selecting a candidate. Choose “new school.”

The over dependence on corporate influence.

The economic fiasco in Greece was exacerbated when Greece leadership allowed corporate interests in Greece to frame a recovery policy. The result protected corporations from the worst actions, that is, national bankruptcy and debt obligation while providing no objectives that would actually restore functional capability to the government. Needless to mention, Greece had to start over again and suffered undue wrath from Germany.

In the United States, corporations have written most of the objectives contained in US trade agreements. No one contradicts the fact that the 1993 NAFTA agreement was an immediate benefit to relocated manufacturers and a disaster for American employees. To wit from www.citizen.org :

  • More than 845,000 specific U.S. workers have been certified for Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) as having lost their jobs due to imports from Canada and Mexico or the relocation of factories to those countries.
  • NAFTA has contributed to downward pressure on U.S. wages and growth in U.S. income inequality
  • Soon after NAFTA’s passage, the small pre-NAFTA U.S. trade surplus with Mexico turned into a massive new trade deficit and the pre-NAFTA U.S. trade deficit with Canada expanded greatly. The inflation-adjusted U.S. trade surplus with Mexico of $2.5 billion and the $29.6 billion deficit with Canada in the year before NAFTA have morphed into a combined NAFTA trade deficit of $177 billion. The rosy job-creation promises made at the time of the NAFTA votes were predicated on NAFTA improving the U.S. balance of trade. The reality has been the opposite.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership in Congress today makes NAFTA child’s play both in economic terms and in the guaranteed rights of citizens in nine nations. TPP was written by corporate interests. A new school candidate will reduce corporate dependence and restore national independence; national independence is a mandate if the US will fix fossil fuel abuse, adjusts corporate tax independence to provide financial investment in infrastructure, and to assure dependable growth in salary and benefits for American workers. In short, vote for the candidate who is against TPP and advocates worker’s rights as an objective rather than one who advocates “making the economy great again.”

TIP

If the candidate is incumbent and running again, how strongly has the candidate backed new improvements in life-centered policies. As an example, Governor Rick Snyder of Michigan is classic: He blocks the cost of fixing lead-burdened amounts in the drinking water for Flint, Michigan. It is disastrous and scores of children have lead levels that are dangerous to life, let alone brain damage. The Governor plays the waiting game by initiating unnecessary studies in spite of the proven travesty of contaminated water in the city of Flint. Snyder is not interested in looking to present and future issues to shape priorities for governing Michigan. Local citizens say he doesn’t want to spend the money and suffer the disruption. Rick is old school, that is, the government manages stability rather than setting present and future need as a government agenda.

This is a similar attitude to Scott Walker in Wisconsin who prefers to break unions rather than have a budget shortfall. It is the same with Terry Branstad in Iowa, where closing mental health institutions in a brash way is an indicator of his lack of interest in solving the people’s issues. The tip is: what issues are high on the candidate’s list – budget and business or citizens and problem resolution. Today’s candidates must describe a government that follows the needs of the common citizen – both personally and environmentally.

Mariner has called Hillary Clinton an old school candidate. One attribute that supports mariner’s opinion is the willingness of both Bill and Hillary to negotiate compromises which are expensive to both sides and may or may not actually advocate progress. A good example is when Bill Clinton signed into law the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in 1999, which repealed the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933. One of the effects of the repeal is it allowed commercial and investment banks to consolidate. Economists have criticized the action. At the same time, Clinton had been an advocate for welfare reform, tolerance for gay issues, defended civil rights and had a direct influence in reversing Reagan’s philosophy of provincial government.

The Clintons are liberal. And the Clintons don’t like to lose – a throwback to Bill’s days as Governor of Arkansas. Being liberally committed and wanting to win do not always coincide; hence, expensive deals to achieve liberal objectives and placate conservative interests at the same time. The mariner believes Hillary is cut from the same cloth as Bill. It is our good fortune that Bernie Sanders provides popular support for liberal ideologies, thereby making Hillary sensitive to major liberal policies.

Ancient Mariner

The Big Race

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For readers who don’t frequent bookie sites, the mariner provides today’s odds that a candidate will be elected President.

 

Hillary Clinton 8/11 72%
Marco Rubio 5/1 20%
Donald Trump 8/1 12½%
Ted Cruz 12/1 8%
Jeb Bush 22/1 4½%
Bernie Sanders 28/1 3½%
Chris Christie 33/1 3%
Ben Carson 200/1 ½%
John Kasich 200/1 ½%
Rand Paul 200/1 ½%
Martin O’Malley 250/1 2/5%
Mike Huckabee 250/1 2/5%
Carley Fiorina 250/1 2/5%

With the primaries about a month away, mariner doesn’t recommend placing a bet – except perhaps for Hillary since the odds for a democratic win are 150% versus the republicans at 120%.

As we enter the primary season, give some thought to the undercard, that is, the reader’s senators, representatives, state legislators, governors and mayors. Many states are so tightly bound by grotesquely gerrymandered voting districts that the winners can be predicted without voting. This is not a healthy sign for a democracy. Only nine states are swing states – worth 130 Electoral College votes. They are:

Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and New Hampshire.

217 electoral votes are necessary to win the Presidential election. If the reader wants to track changes, a good site is: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ or http://www.bing.com/search?q=which+states+tossup+for+presidential+election&qs=n&form=QBLH&pq=which+states+tossup+for+presidential+election&sc=0-19&sp=-1&sk=&cvid=CC555DFBC2CF4D5F88AFB548D98F4E22

This is a very important election. The mariner strongly, strongly urges the reader to attend your caucus or primary. Then, especially strongly, vote in November.

Ancient Mariner