The News

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The mariner is wearing thin. We have at hand one of the most interesting campaigns for President in the last three quarters of a century. At stake are deep running cultural conflicts that have been emerging since Papa Bush; the presence of an oligarchy under siege; Federal and State governments are as dysfunctional as four flat tires; the definition of work is at a troublesome crossroad; international corporations are free from nationalist control; shifting economic power and a change in economics itself opens a different future for international monetary policy; the reasons to move forward with a Supreme Court appointee are deep and philosophical; the very planet is under siege. Sigh.

As usual, mariner will succumb to the Prophet Amos to speak about the news media. At the moment, all mariner’s alter egos are speechless and dumbfounded by the generic incompetence of the press. Only disjointed utterances like: ignorant plebeian, ass, stupid brainless muppet, moron, brain dead piece of shit, useless egotistic lump, and…well, you get the drift. Even PBS is insipid. However, Amos will step forth with smoother homiletic form.

Mariner reviews numerous websites and TV channels to glean meaning from the news. Note he said “glean meaning” – the content itself is too often little more than dross. From television, he gives most of his viewing of news to the four broadcast companies (ABC,CBS,NBC,PBS), CNN, MSNBC, Bloomberg News and Aljazeera; some time is given as appropriate to FOX, Free Speech (FSTV), CSPAN, PBS specials and the weather channel.

There are four areas of complaint: detracting personality, lack of insight, irrelevant fill – as Jon Stewart used to say, “oxygen,” and the fourth is misinformed, to be gracious.

Personality. Amos mentions three types of “news anchors” to set the pattern. Only names are necessary to the knowledgeable viewer: Chris Matthews, who never hears the end of a guest’s sentence because he starts talking at the same time – meaning that viewers can’t understand what’s said by either of them; Chuck Todd and Erin Burnett, who are more interested in trapping and hog-tying their guests than raising the bar on quality insight (mariner actually enjoys guests who don’t yield and put the anchor in a dead spot); and Wolf Blitzer – unless he already has been replaced by a robot. Ending on a high note, many correspondents, especially on MSNBC, are coherent and understand the nuance of what they are reporting.

Lack of Insight. The mariner recently wrote a post, Poor Mitch, that took notice of the need to keep the Supreme Court as far from populism and special interests as possible. The best any news outlet can do is incessantly ploughing the same shallow arguments given by Mitch McConnell that the public must have a say in the next Supreme Court appointee. His position is in direct conflict with the spirit of the Constitutional process. The tendency is universal to report on human behavior and intentionally ignore reasoning and broader circumstances which may explain or contradict the human behavior. The mariner has begun to switch channels during coverage of ‘advice and consent’ after borrowing a few expletives from the list.

Irrelevant Fill. Amos is hard pressed to select just a few. Virtually all newscasters are nominalist, that is, events are simply things in motion; thematic content and paradigm causation are not ‘happening’ things. Evidence is in the following quote from a CNN correspondent on the scene in Boston feigning urgency while waiting for news on the Boston Bomber: “We see a dog, it is barking. It could be a K9 unit. We don’t know. It is a dog.” – Naturally, this is more important than taking broadcasting time to investigate in-depth analysis of the entire situation, or even cutting off the on-site broadcast to report on other serious news that has been pushed aside to report on the dog.

The truth is, staying on the scene identifying dogs and counting anonymous cars driving by was suffered in case real news, AKA an opportunity to retain viewer share, occurred. CNN is famous for having the best ratings during a pumped up news event that is milked nonstop for days. Between the pumped up events, CNN becomes noticeably vapid and preoccupied with broadcast format rather than content. Between events, viewership drops accordingly. This may be the curse of filling a 24-hour news cycle.

Misinformed. Again, a few names are all that is required to understand the fourth complaint: Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity, Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh…. On the liberal side, most of the guests on progressive outlets err when trying to link unfocused ideas to current reality, for example, Mika Brzezinski, Bob Beckel and guests like Thomas G. West and Ricardo Lagos. To be honest, the thoughtful viewer/reader should approach FOX and conservative radio as if they were a Broadway play. Enjoy its idiosyncrasies, marvel at the script, enjoy its characters – just remember it is not reality.

All this taken in hand, it is a long time to the November election and the inauguration. Mariner suggests taking a break every ten days; avoid news outlets; pursue vacations and other distractions; focus on personal relationships and personal health. Then return to the fray and the stupid brainless muppets. You have a moral obligation to be an educated citizen.

The reference section is offered as a routine to follow, previous complaints withstanding.

REFERENCE SECTION

  • Mariner thanks readers who helped Congress overturn the removal of genetically modified organism (GMO) notification on modified product labels. The Monsanto-backed bill was defeated by one vote: 49-48. The bill also would have provided Monsanto with protection from lawsuits for any reason. The bill had a nickname: the Monsanto gift bill.
  • Nate Silver is mariner’s preferred statistician. Nate has a wide ranging website, www.fivethirtyeight.com . Nate and his staff cover everything including comprehensive analysis of sports, politics, economics, data phenomena and polls of every kind, census statistics, and more. The website is very entertaining, light reading, and full of prognostications. Most important, Nate is accurate! Today, mariner recommends visiting the website to read an article about how computerized databases know more about what you will do than you do. A subtitle says, “The world that you see is being configured to a probable reality that you haven’t yet chosen.” See: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/doug-rushkoff-says-companies-should-stop-growing/ .While on the site, look around….
  • If the reader hasn’t found CNET already, give it a try. It’s an off-the-wall, gadget laden news site (along with endless gadgetry for sale). For example, there is a news video about self-lacing shoes on the market, what Adam Savage (Mythbusters) is doing now, buying gas with Apple Pay, robot delivery of pizza, and Jesse Jackson backs Apple regarding the FBI warrant – just to scratch the surface. http://www.cnet.com/
  • A weekly tour guide that keeps the reader up to date should include at least the following websites:

http://www.theatlantic.com/ An excellent magazine; top caliber! Has several featured articles that provide insightful analysis of important issues.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world Least constricted coverage of world news; much less slanted than US international news.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/ An unobtrusive website that provides clean news reporting and provides many branches to explore including PBS television.

http://www.politico.com/ All things political.

http://www.bloomberg.com/ Business and economic news with top headline coverage.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/ Nate Silver’s website; see review above.

http://www.livescience.com/ Latest in news from the science and environment sectors written for the unsophisticated viewer.

http://www.nytimes.com/section/books A place for all bibliophiles with new publications, many reviews, special interests and commentary.

http://espn.go.com/ Probably the most thorough coverage of all things sports. Search specific sports for in depth coverage of a single sport.

Finally, for information on an endless array of knowledge and personal interests – a liberal arts playground – see: https://www.wikipedia.org/ .

Ancient Mariner

 

 

Happiness Is

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Reader Marty, who downloaded the Happiness report, replied to the post, Theodicy and Secularism –

“I thought it was interesting that the Dalai Lama said that we cannot count on religion as the basis for our ethics, since the people of the world cannot agree on one religion–and many don’t believe in any religion at all. (This was in the UN World Happiness Report.) The Dalai Lama said that we need a secular ethics. The World Happiness Report suggested a secular ethics based on the Greatest Happiness Principle. I think the UN has made a great start in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. We have the plan already in place, if only we would follow it. Ha! Isn’t that always the problem!”

In concert with Marty’s response and in acknowledgement of how important, how critical this concept is, the mariner has reproduced verbatim that portion of the Happiness Report that explains the happiness principle. Further, two other recent posts have focused on this subject. See: Where is our Light? and Sailing One’s Own Ship in a Tumultuous World.

The Greatest Happiness Principle

So, first, what ethical idea based on human need can best fill the moral vacuum left by the decline of religious belief? The answer must surely be the great central idea of the 18th century Anglo-Saxon Enlightenment on which much of modern Western civilisation is based. This can be expressed in three propositions.

 We should assess human progress by the extent to which people are enjoying their lives—by the prevalence of happiness and, conversely, the absence of misery.

 Therefore, the objective of governments should be to create conditions for the greatest possible happiness and the least possible misery. As Thomas Jefferson put it, “The care of human life and happiness … is the only legitimate object of good government”.

 Likewise the obligation of each of us is to create the greatest amount of human happiness that we can in the world and the least misery. (Overall happiness of course includes our own.) And in all of this it is more important to reduce unhappiness (or misery) than to increase the happiness of those who are already higher up the scale.

These three propositions are what may be called the “greatest happiness principle”. It was Proposition 1 which inspired many organisations, like the OECD, the EU and many governments, to reassess their answer to the question: what is progress? And it was Propositions 1 and 2 which have mainly inspired the production of successive World Happiness Reports – our hope has been to display enough of the new science of happiness to enable policy-makers to make happiness a practical goal of policy.

But it is Proposition 3 that we wish to promote in this chapter, because we believe it should be the central principle which inspires those billions worldwide for whom religion no longer provides the answer to how we should live.

The principle is frequently misunderstood. For example, it does not assume that people are only concerned about their own happiness. On the contrary, if people only pursued their own happiness, this would not produce a very happy society. Instead the greatest happiness principle exhorts us to care passionately about the happiness of others. It is only if we do so that true progress (as we have defined it) can occur.

But what is so special about happiness? Why not judge our progress by our wealth or our freedom or our health or education, and not just our happiness? Clearly many things are good. But different goods are often in competition. My spending more on health may mean spending less on education. Or wealth-creation may require some limitations on freedom. So we have to ask why different things are good? And in most cases we can give sensible answers. For example, ‘Wealth makes people feel good’ or ‘Ill health makes people feel bad.’ But if we ask why it matters how people feel—why happiness is good—we can give no answer. It is just self-evident. So happiness is revealed as the overarching good, and other goods obtain their goodness from the fact that they contribute to happiness. And that is why an “impartial spectator” would judge a state of human affairs by the happiness of the people.

The greatest happiness principle has a universal appeal. It has the capacity to inspire, by mobilizing the benevolent part of every human being. In the language of Jews, Christians and Muslims, it embodies the commandment to Do as you would be done by, and to Love your neighbor as yourself. In the language of Hinduism and Buddhism, it embodies the principle of compassion—that we should in all our dealings truly wish for the happiness of all of those we can affect, and we should cultivate in ourselves an attitude of unconditional benevolence….

….In this context, an ethical system that favours not only others’ happiness but also our own has a much better chance of being implemented than one that is pure hair-shirt. It is therefore a huge advantage of the greatest happiness principle that it requires self-compassion as well as compassion towards others.

Reprinted from Chapter 3: Promoting Secular Ethics, Fourth World Happiness Report 2016 in behalf of the United Nations.

REFERENCE SECTION

It behooves the reader to read the Universal Declaration of Human Rights mentioned in Marty’s reply, see: http://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/index.html

To see the World Happiness report, http://worldhappiness.report/ for a free download or purchase a printed copy at: https://shop.un.org/search/Universal%20Happiness%20report  $17+shipping.

Ancient Mariner

Theodicy and Secularism

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Theodicy is a philosophy organized and documented by Saint Augustine of Hippo (354-430CE). Theodicy addresses specifically the question: “If God is good, loves all things and created all things, why is there evil in the world? Either God also created evil and therefore is not good and loving, or God does not exist.” Theodicy is a defense of God’s perfection in light of the existence of evil.

The question itself was asked as early as Plato and was posited as a reason for nominalism[1] by William of Occam, famous for Occam’s Razor. Bertram Russell, a famous British agnostic, mathematical theorist and inquisitor at large, presented the following thought experiment in an article titled, “Is there a God?”

“If I were to suggest that between the Earth and Mars there is a china teapot revolving about the sun in an elliptical orbit, nobody would be able to disprove my assertion provided I were careful to add that the teapot is too small to be revealed even by our most powerful telescopes.

But if I were to go on to say that, since my assertion cannot be disproved, it is an intolerable presumption on the part of human reason to doubt it, I should rightly be thought to be talking nonsense.

If, however, the existence of such a teapot were affirmed in ancient books, taught as the sacred truth every Sunday, and instilled into the minds of children at school, hesitation to believe in its existence would become a mark of eccentricity and entitle the doubter to the attentions of the psychiatrist in an enlightened age or of the Inquisitor in an earlier time.”

“The existence of this teapot cannot be disproved. We can look and scan the skies almost for eternity, and it may always just be the case that it wasn’t in the place we looked – there may be another spot we’ve overlooked, or it may have moved while we were looking. However, given the absurd nature of the specific example, the teapot, we would rightly infer that absence of evidence is evidence of absence. Russell’s audacity in the thought experiment was to question why people don’t like to apply the same, sound, logic … to the existence of any particular deity; there is no difference in the evidence base provided, therefore there is no reason to assume a God and not a celestial teapot.[2]

Theodicy addresses these logical challenges to deism – the belief in a supreme god. Saint Augustine, simply, said that God is perfectly good. It was God who created the world and the universe out of nothing and that evil is a byproduct of humanity’s sin. Evil is the punishment for original sin[3]. Augustine states that continued sin is created by human free will, an attribute made possible by eating fruit from the tree of knowledge. God remains whole and not responsible for sin and suffering.

  • – – –

During the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, secularism[4] emerged as a broadly accepted philosophy. Secularism is different than agnostic or atheistic philosophies which require, more or less, theistic presumptions. Secularism has ethics derived from humanism, pragmatism, and anthropological reasoning. Secularism is a self-contained life experience where the existence or non-existence of God does not matter.

Augustine (and many other theologians) would consider secularism sin. In religious context, God is the source of goodness and love – elements that are not necessary in secularism. Secularism is founded in vanity and self aggrandizement. The original question about the existence of God is replaced by the question, “What is good?” Humans tend to answer this question in terms of convenience and privilege for the self, the community or the nation – whatever works best – especially for the individual.

It is obvious already that great questions confront humanity in the twenty-first century. Human culture is yanked back and forth by new technologies, new scientific frontiers, abuse of the planet, power shifts in national supremacy, and even the existence of humanity itself. Some will argue that only secularism will allow the best decisions to be made in the future; others will argue that, despite the vagaries of the future, the belief in a superior force – one that predefines what is good – is our only rudder.

We shall see.

Ancient Mariner

  1. [1] Oxford Dictionary: “the doctrine that universals or general ideas are mere names without any corresponding reality, and that only particular objects exist; properties, numbers, and sets are thought of as merely features of the way of considering the things that exist. Important in medieval scholastic thought, nominalism is associated particularly with William of Occam. Often contrasted with realism.

[2]See: http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Russell’s_Teapot

[3] Old Testament, Genesis 3.

[4] Merriam –Webster Secularism: indifference to or rejection of religion and religious considerations.

Lessons from History

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Cable news pundits are always trying to catch up with Donald’s intentions and tactics; they are bewildered by the lack of manners and sophistication. The pundits are always chasing Donald rather than knowing how Donald and his troops will behave. When Donald the Drumpf says there will be riots, riots is what will happen. His troops have no sense of decorum; it is a battle to install Donald as President. The pundits need only be familiar with several battles in history where the government was overthrown.

One of mariner’s favorite names in history is Robert the Bruce. Robert the Bruce is the Scottish Overlord (king) who gained Scottish independence from England during the fourteenth century. He lived a life of intrigue, murder, war, and marriage worthy of a PBS series. His armies were made up more by scoundrels than by organized defenders of fiefdoms. The comparison to Donald’s situation is that there is no decorum. The troops will enjoy physical conflict and destruction – that’s the whole point of his campaign.

Another conflict that often comes to mariner’s mind is the French Revolution, a drawn out affair in the midst of the Enlightenment when philosophers and political observers began to challenge absolute rule by a monarchy and suggested ideas like democracy, liberalism, nationalism, and socialism (does that sound familiar?). Leading up to the revolution years were growing ideas about a role for the bourgeois (citizenry) versus rule by the French Nobility (billionaires). Thanks in large part to the ineptitude of Louis XVI, recession and food shortages lead to what today would be called national bankruptcy.

Throughout the mid 1700’s, King Louie held the conservative line and forced commodity prices higher to sustain France’s GNP but did not provide income to the citizenry (recession). Further, in the midst of the failing economy, Louie recognized the colonial United States and joined the war on their side against the British – putting more strain on France’s economy (Iraq/Afghanistan/Syria). Further, England was invading French soil (China, economically).

Finally, in 1791, Louis XVI accepts a new constitution (Republican party accepts Donald) but the war has only begun. The new government is inexperienced at governing and proves to be incompetent (Donald the Drumpf). In 1793 the beheadings begin. If the reader is looking for Joan of Arc, she was in the Hundred Years War defending Charles VII, eventually captured by the British and burned at the stake in 1431.

The mariner feels the press is making a mistake assuming they are part of the establishment (billionaires for whom they work) when they should be on the sidelines presenting an accurate description of a cultural war between old school capitalism and a new cultural and economic requirement to infuse more socialism into the philosophy of government (sound like another Enlightenment?)

Ancient Mariner

Poor Mitch

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Observing the nominating process for appointing Judge Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court, the mariner perceives that the Tea Party conservatives are more of a threat to Mitch McConnell than moving forward with hearings of ‘advice and consent’ as the Constitution prescribes. This deterrent to normal Government operation has been the downfall of the established Republican Party and made the President’s life miserable because of blind obstruction that is void of logic.

In yielding to extreme party influence, the Republican Party has slept with the devil and can only lose no matter what the party does. After seven years of disruption to government process under Mitch’s hand, the established party is in shreds. Many will say that political ineptitude has allowed Donald, neither a republican nor a conservative nor allegiant to any ideology, to take over the 2016 campaign.

But there is another more subtle disruption to Constitutional governance that is a dangerous precedent if Mitch is allowed to move forward: the undue influence of populism in the Constitutional process. The founding fathers were careful not to allow citizen emotions of the moment to have access to the machinery of the Federalist Republic. One example is that citizens did not elect their Congressional Senators until 1913 (17th Amendment).

Mitch, on the other hand, says that the people deserve the right to have a say in who will be the next Supreme Court appointee. Fearing the Tea Party’s ability to cut short his career, Mitch has opened the doors of Supreme Court selection to public influence in general elections. The founding fathers must be rolling in their graves. The Constitution deliberately shields the judicial branch of the Federal government from public opinion. Only an elected President – and he/she is constrained by the Senate – can appoint any judge in the Federal Courts or the Supreme Court. The deliberate and obvious intent of the Constitution is to assure that the third branch of government is as free as possible from the momentary pressure of the citizens and the other two branches of government. Jurisprudence must be as pure as possible in an open democracy.

Mitch is messing with the intent of the Constitution and its most subtle requirements for governance.

Ancient Mariner

 

The US and Happiness

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The Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) and the Earth Institute at Columbia University released its annual report on the happiest to least happiest countries in which to live.

The happiest, in descending order, are Denmark, Switzerland, Iceland, Norway, Finland, Canada, Netherlands, New Zealand, Australia, and Sweden.

The least happy, in descending order, are Madagascar, Tanzania, Liberia, Guinea, Rwanda, Benin, Afghanistan, Togo, Syria and Burundi.

“The United States ranked 13th from the top. “There is a very strong message for my country, the United States, which is very rich, has gotten a lot richer over the last 50 years, but has gotten no happier,” said Professor Jeffrey Sachs, head of the SDSN and special advisor to U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. “The message for the United States is clear. For a society that just chases money, we are chasing the wrong things. Our social fabric is deteriorating, social trust is deteriorating, faith in government is deteriorating,” he said.”

One will notice that of the top ten nations, eight are predominately socialist. To a greater degree than any other nation, the US is dominated by capitalism. The 2016 campaign for President has dissonance as a standard ingredient. Donald’s followers are genuinely angry at Federal and State governments that have left them vulnerable. The same is true of Bernie’s followers. A significant percentage of the electorate has ceased to be the silent – and forgotten – majority. Jeffrey Sachs is right: Becoming a plutocracy has destroyed unity; it has destroyed financial security for all but a few; wealth can no longer suppress the need for happiness.

The 2016 election is a test. Will the US fall back into Reaganomics by electing a republican, or will the US rein in oppression and plutocracy by electing a democrat? Culturally, it is a hard decision. The citizens have lived in an unusually capitalistic era for thirty-six years. The goal of fast and excessive profit has left a scar on the transcendent meaning of freedom.

For a free download of the report, see:

http://worldhappiness.report/ed/2016/

Ancient Mariner

Little Big Things

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There was a bit of kickback on the Aljazeera article that was harsh in its opinion of Hillary. The mariner is not espousing any candidate over another; none induce the mariner’s advocacy. He may reference something that, although unpopular, is intellectually unique in some way. The joining of Hillary to Donald was unusual and written by an Iranian-American professor at Columbia University. It seems more logical to compare Donald to Bernie. Certainly another perspective for the liberal arts mind. Readers must admit that the media offers little intellectual fodder.

  • – – –

A new analysis published in Nature – Climate Change magazine warns that 4 million people may be displaced in the US by rising seas during the next 100 years – half of them in Florida. The increase will be between 3 feet and 6 feet. The study says that sea levels are rising at the fastest rate in the last 28 centuries. Data already shows increasing sea levels have caused greater damage each year by flooding and heavy storms. It was estimated that a 6 foot increase would cost $14 trillion in relocation costs. See:

http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2961.epdf?referrer_access_token=GP821Wogcu_Rmb5dVHcQvNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NW5dzPCV1LQTM2JMQvXgeV5kcoIiVItcAo6QabUR9-178DTC5AmyL7sqoUXtYx2FydBJB3NZXi69rwMlAJSFnb4PbI1CrMlUnNDDLj1lRtE1FdsgdlaP7hfzAT8rce5yP_2UibeTtvtA4ujTyZbUPB_FVbsjW3DucGr5UgNyZCSSS7w1mBahLCuyC4ACswWAXMxUMoh0aWWSuLDAeQY8JD&tracking_referrer=www.nytimes.com

  • – – –

GPS, the television show hosted by Fareed Zacharia, had Larry Summers as a guest. Larry was Bill Clinton’s Secretary of the Treasury. Mariner was confused more than informed. Fareed’s opening remarks touted the success of the US economy compared to all other countries with major economic profiles. His positive tone seemed to ignore the dissatisfaction of the followers of Donald and Bernie.

Donald espouses, more or less, a nationalist dissatisfaction and Bernie espouses dissatisfaction with an oligarchic economy. Needless to say, there are millions of followers between the two who feel put upon by government and do not feel that progress has been made in the economy. Fareed defended NAFTA, saying it had created a stable neighbor in Mexico whose government is rapidly becoming more democratic. Meanwhile, millions contend the US government is becoming less democratic.

While Mexico’s politics may be true in principle, the image of large corporations still moving out of the US on a regular basis is not one the working class appreciates. Mariner sees a disconnection between economic perspective and voter perspective. Further, to confuse the mariner more, Larry comes on and says US citizens have to spend more – even go into debt now at really inexpensive interest rates and not save so much. This is hard advice to millions of voters who are still hurting from the 2008 recession, student debt, and decreasing income as manufacturing continues to shrink in terms of good paying jobs.

  • . . . .

Don’t tell Donald (or his followers) about the following story from Chicago reported in the American Journal of Transportation:

“Chicago’s transport authorities handed a $1.3 billion rail cars contract for the city’s “L” urban rail system to a unit of China’s CRRC Corp., the company’s second deal in the U.S. in 18 months.

The order is for 846 7000-series rail cars from CSR Sifang America JV, which submitted the lowest bid, Chicago Transport Authority said in a statement on its website Thursday. Prototypes for an initial order for 400 train cars are due in 2019 and expected to go into a service a year later after tests. As part of its winning bid, CSR Sifang will also invest $40 million to build a rail assembly facility in Chicago.

The deal is China’s second in the U.S., following the one China CNR Corp. won in October 2014 worth $567 million to supply trains for Boston’s subway system.

CNR and CSR Corp. subsequently merged last year to form CRRC Corp. in a bid to achieve greater economies of scale and compete more effectively in the global market. China Premier Li Keqiang is leading an overseas push by Chinese train equipment makers as part of a broader strategy to turn China into an advanced industrialized nation.”

It is certainly true that chaos reigns when there is a major culture shift in progress.

Ancient Mariner

Coal

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From US Energy Information Administration:

“In 2012, 91 percent of coal consumed in the U.S. was used for 37 percent of total U.S. electric power generation. The remaining 8 percent was consumed for industrial purposes, including steel and cement manufacturing. Worldwide, electric power generation was also the largest consumer of coal. In 2011, the electricity sector consumed 62 percent, while global industrial coal consumption was approximately 33 percent. The remaining 5 percent was used in the commercial and residential sectors.”

Scientists have been putting the numbers together regarding industries that burn coal, especially electric power plants. The coal industry has promoted carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) solutions to reduce the release of Carbon into the atmosphere. This method uses Carbon extractors in the chimneys, compresses the Carbon and stores it deep underground. The coal industry has performed studies that suggest CCS can meet the 80% reduction by 2050 agreed to at the International Conference on Climate Change in 2015. However, recent independent research projects suggest the cost of CCS will be prohibitive – especially compared to the cost of replacing coal with renewable energy solutions.

Steve Skerlos, University of Michigan professor of mechanical, civil and environmental engineering, said “Policymakers need to stop wasting time hoping for technological silver bullets to sustain the status quo in the electric sector and quickly accelerate the transition from coal to renewables, or possibly, natural gas power plants with CCS.” Recent cost analysis indicated that current, flawed projections peg the fuel costs of a CCS-equipped coal plant at $29 million per year more than a conventional plant. The new University of Michigan research calculates the additional fuel cost at closer to $126 million per year.

Shifting gears from cost analysis to Federal policy makers, mariner suspects that replacing coal altogether will languish in Congressional committees until 2050. The new cost analysis not only makes cap and trade moot, it makes coal moot as well. The current Congress, bought and paid for by the coal industry and every other fossil fuel corporation, will never touch converting coal power plants to renewable energy solutions. The reader must put this issue on the stack of reasons why the nation needs a new, contemporary Congress.

From USA TODAY:

“Alison Lundergan Grimes and Natalie Tennant, two Democrats from coal-producing states running for the U.S. Senate, vow they’ll fight the Obama administration’s proposal to cut carbon dioxide emissions.

Grimes, the Kentucky secretary of State, issued a statement saying the new Environmental Protection Agency rule to cut emissions from existing power plants by 30% by 2030 “is more proof that Washington isn’t working for Kentucky.”

“Coal keeps the lights on in the Commonwealth, providing a way for thousands of Kentuckians to put food on their tables,” Grimes said. “When I’m in the U.S. Senate, I will fiercely oppose the president’s attack on Kentucky’s coal industry because protecting our jobs will be my No. 1 priority.”

It seems that rebalancing the power structure of the US in order to put global issues ahead of parochial issues will be a long, bitter and expensive battle. It is true that coal is a major cog in America’s economy. Many jobs will be affected. The national infrastructure will undergo massive reorganization reverberating across power grids, transportation, manufacturing, and renewable energy. Significant change will reach into homes as the coal power grid shrinks and renewable energy emerges.

The US economy and the workers can’t afford to lose coal jobs for any length of time. How will the workers of an entire industry be reallocated in the nation’s workforce? Logistically, how will immense sums of money be available?

Taking care of Mother Earth turns out to be more expensive and troublesome than expected. A new natural gas power plant with CCS just opened near Houston. We will know soon how cleanly and how expensively this power plant provides electricity.

  • – – –

Turning to the campaign for President, an odd article about Trump versus Clinton is in the Aljazeera newsletter. The article is worth a read for perspective. See:

http://www.aljazeera.com//indepth/opinion/2016/03/salesman-politicians-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-160306120204257.html?utm_source=Al+Jazeera+English+Newsletter+%7C+Weekly&utm_campaign=fdab870200-weekly_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e427298a68-fdab870200-224505437

Another perspective is from Bill Moyers’ website. See:

http://billmoyers.com/story/blowing-the-biggest-political-story-of-the-last-fifty-years/

Ancient Mariner

Candidate Probabilities: Polls versus Bettors

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Here are the poll comparisons between the candidates for President. These values are from Nate Silver’s website, 538.com.

Hillary versus Donald   (NBC)        51% – 38%         Hillary +13

Hillary versus Donald   (ABC)        50% – 41%         Hillary +9

Hillary versus Ted        (NBC)        47% – 45%         Hillary +2

Hillary versus Marco    (NBC)        46% – 46%         TIE

Bernie versus Donald   (NBC)       55% – 37%         Bernie +18

Bettors, who back their prediction with cash, have more confidence in Hillary – betting she will win versus anyone 65% of the time. The full morning line is below.

The Morning Line March 10 2016

Here’s the morning line out of Vegas:

Hillary Clinton 8/15 65%
Donald Trump 10/3 23%
Bernie Sanders 8/1 11%
Ted Cruz 20/1 5%
John Kasich 33/1 3%
Marco Rubio 50/1 2%
Joe Biden 100/1 1%
Mitt Romney 200/1 .05%
Paul Ryan 500/1 .02%
Chris Christie N/A Suspended campaign
Martin O’Malley N/A Suspended campaign
Ben Carson N/A Suspended campaign
Carly Fiorina N/A Suspended campaign
Rand Paul N/A Suspended campaign
Rick Santorum N/A Suspended campaign
Jeb Bush N/A Suspended campaign
Michael Bloomberg N/A Suspended campaign
Mike Huckabee N/A Suspended campaign

Hillary is still the favorite but her odds have dropped significantly. [However, if you bet today, your profit would be $53.33 instead of just $1 if you had bet last week] The odds on Marco are noticeably different than the polls suggest; he dropped to 6th place and is a long shot. It looks like it will be Donald versus Hillary if delegate votes stay predictable. Ted is still unpopular with the betting crowd but moves up one slot to 4th place. Kasich is not a serious contender among the bettors. Bernie stays in the mix but the super delegate count is against him.

Ancient Mariner

Sailing One’s Own Ship in a Tumultuous World

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Mariner has spent the last few days outside preparing for spring. It has been a nice respite from the Presidential campaign. Given all the attention to the presidential campaign, one must search a few channels and websites to find world news. The world isn’t doing too well. Economically, international trade is dropping significantly; the European Union is out of cash; Great Britain has citizen pressure to leave the European Union; the BRIC nations,[1] supposedly the new hot economies, all are on the verge of recession; emigration from the Middle East and northern Africa continues – reflecting continued war, tyranny and human violence on one sixth of the Earth’s land mass; the USA hangs precariously on the edge of a potential recession. Not to mention global warming and the decimation of hundreds of species due to habitat destruction.

Chicken Little grows more restless as US bombers are flown to the South China Sea and Kim Jong-Un launches more rockets. China’s GDP has dropped from 14.2% in 2007 to 6.5% today; China is not in the mood to be pushed around.

One is confronted enough to retreat back to the garden…

What shall we do about this global mess? It must be dealt with in pieces. The reader must take one thing at a time – based on personal concern and the willingness to deal with the pieces one feels are important. Despite all the news about campaigns, faltering economies, idiotic wars and terrorism, starving human beings, racial prejudice, class economy, and dysfunctional governments, where the rubber meets the road today is at the individual level. Look in a mirror to identify today’s champion. The important thing is to feel that you are actually helping bring order and ethos to a troubled planet.

Some suggestions – more likely the reader has others that may be better:

Be Civil – The phrase “pass it forward” is quite effective. Each day, be alert to the opportunity to make things easier for another person. Don’t be grandiose about it – just a small effort that is barely noticed. A friend of mariner’s walks every day for exercise but while doing so picks up trash and speaks briefly to everyone he meets.

Share – This may take practice to perform in an unimposing way. Everyone knows a number of people who are disadvantaged in some way; perhaps they are so poor as to be concerned about food or medicine or finding a way to get to the bank and grocery store. Perhaps they are old or disabled and limited in their ability to carry out normal tasks. Quietly adopt them; find ways to assist them that are friendly and unobtrusive. The mariner knows a family that grows a large vegetable garden and gives all the harvest to charity. Another individual offers to babysit while the mother buys groceries. It is amazing how nothing more than being a friend can change a person’s life. Civility and sharing are the foundation of community bonding; ethos cannot emerge without them.

Participate – Your community is dynamic. When developers first built huge bedroom communities with hundreds of homes, “communities” did not automatically exist. Instead, there were sterile collections of bedrooms that had no connectivity and no neighborhood identity that provided a feeling of belonging. Eventually, residents began visiting one another; some had interest in group activities and local schools; organizations emerged involving everything from religion to sports to social clubs and investment clubs – to name a few of many activities that make a community a dynamic environment. Participating in community activities is necessary; social and political unity cannot emerge without individuals participating in community activities.

Be responsible – A special type of participation is to contribute to the well being of community institutions. Be active in political organizations; volunteer at libraries, hospitals, religious institutions, government programs similar to adopting a highway or educational programs similar to pre-school and after-school social programs. It goes without saying: take your right to vote seriously; when the opportunity arises, meet all your elected officials; when exercising your right to vote, be inclusive of the community gestalt – don’t be vain or close-minded about your ideology. You may also run for an elected office.

Be cosmopolitan – An endless world community exists outside your local community. It is similar to your own community but the issues are more numerous, extremely complicated, and often seriously critical. You automatically own a share of the global community just as you own a share of your local community. Some worldly topics may already be important to you. Potable water, an everyday thing we never think about, on the world stage is a critical issue. Flint Michigan is in the news now. But fresh water is rapidly disappearing. Another issue is poverty; it is growing in the US – the wealthiest nation in the world. Another issue is race; another is economic fairness – not only between the one percent and the middle class but between white laborers and nonwhite laborers, between men and women, between business and labor. Another issue is the planet itself. Earth is in dire need of friends; human life as we know it is at stake within a lifetime.

The reader’s involvement in the wellbeing of neighbors, community, and worldly issues – doing something responsible on your own – may ease the insecurity imposed on you by the campaign for President. Personal commitment will erase feelings of helplessness as the world seems to collapse around you. Don’t be limited by this post’s suggestions – use your imagination to engage meaningfully.

Ancient Mariner

[1] Brazil, Russia, India, China.