Unfinished Business

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֎ Speculations about the future of Christianity drew interest. If the Trinity disappears, Armageddon will ensue. Mariner is not in a position to reconcile such a difficult question so he will throw some logs on the fire.

Log 1 – In the local newspaper today was an article about a Roman Catholic priest here in the US. He was in deep trouble because many parishioners had to re-baptize their babies because the priest said, “We baptize you in the name of the Father, the Son and the Holy Ghost.” Turns out the Vatican said this is improper because it is the spirit of Jesus only who baptizes; the priest should have said ‘I’. Calculate the amount of grace, dare mariner say God’s grace, that was demonstrated in the strict interpretation. Define aquarium. Define spiritual.

Log 2 – Just in his small town mariner counted five people who never go to church but are known for their good works and their commitment to help others. One of these people is older than mariner and when there is a snowstorm will get out his tractor and clear 19 driveways in town, mostly those who cannot do it themselves. Can the two Great Commandments be defined in other belief systems that do not have a spiritual deity?

Log 3 – There is a hairdresser who takes one workday each week to work in retirement homes. Does this woman go to church? Define Holy Spirit.

– – – –

On to other matters:

More companies are using AI-led video interviews to assess job candidates before a human recruiter even meets them. Some automated programs evaluate not just on answers to questions, but sometimes on facial expressions, intonation and word choice.

Remember Nadine?

 

Here in Iowa mariner had another snowstorm yesterday. The ground is covered in snow and ice; bitter breezes prevail; many winter chores remain undone. Nevertheless, four weeks from now the early vegetables like lettuce can be planted; is the asparagus bed ready? Clean the greenhouse and pots; repair garden tools. Get ready, gardeners.

Ancient Mariner

 

2000 Century Trends

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Below are random thoughts collected from mariner’s alter egos about trends in society and history that are too large to be noticed daily and so slow in impact that, today at least, they don’t matter.

֎ Migration from the coasts.  Axios, an online news source, reports that a trend is well underway which involves a significant number of people relocating from the coasts and current centers of commerce to twenty heartland states. Three major causes are the ability to work from home, the internet enables large corporations to relocate for tax purposes and an awareness of the impact of global warming on the coasts – ocean levels are expected to rise one foot by 2050. Map below:

Mariner mentions this trend because it is a shift in winds by the nation’s cultural ideology about what it means to be successful. Since the 1960s one was considered upwardly mobile and successful if they were able to escape the local scene and become part of the world of big-time success, typically large corporations, universities and the world of the Fortune 500. One could ask whether today’s working class (including the trumpers) will ever again be the center of the nation’s work ethic, will ever again bask in the glory days of Rosie the Riveter and the political influence of the AFL/CIO. In the future one wonders where the collective identity of a U.S. citizen will emerge – given the isolating characteristics of working from home and the extensive automation of manufacturing. In the future what cultural characteristic will define a successful individual?

֎ The disappearance of Christianity. Among the major religions of the world, Christianity is the most spiritual. To be a Christian requires an eagerness to put aside one’s own sense of accomplishment and replace it with enabling success in others. The theological basis is a spiritual relationship – a partnership – with God, Jesus and the human Christian; scripturally called the Trinity. In 2014 Paul Harvey, a conservative talk show host on radio, said “Too many Christians are no longer fishers of men, but the keepers of the aquarium.” – clearly a recognition of an evaporating spiritual element in Christianity.

For many decades religious thinkers have pondered what will replace Christianity. Will it be atheism? Will it be humanism? Will it be naturalism? Will it be, in a computer-driven society, determinism? Will a new age of theocracy emerge? Each of these ideologies has a similar ethical structure, essentially endorsing a grand order from which morality can be deduced but not necessarily from an anthropomorphic deity driven by spirituality. Like the national identity of success, Christianity is a deeply rooted characterization of most U.S. citizens. What will replace the spirituality provided by Christianity? Will church buildings go the way of public telephone booths? What unchanging, overarching principle will guide humanity in the simulated world of artificial intelligence?

֎ Economic theory. Since the beginning, Homo sapiens’ habitat has been one, most of the time, that has allowed a constant increase in the number of humans in the world. There was always another natural resource to leverage, always a new way to profit as a species, always a new intellectual device to increase production beyond human capability.

Along with a period of unusually long and stable planetary weather, the environment allowed three primary economic theories to work: capitalism, socialism and communism. Granted, there are unending political ways to manage these theories from dictatorships to democracies but only these three economic theories can leverage the natural resources in a manner that is sustainable. The number of humans has long surpassed survivability based on hunting/gathering and family labor.

Today the human population has grown past 7 billion on its way to what many scientists from different disciplines believe, given natural resources, is a maximum capacity of 11 billion. Add to population issues the issue of global warming and a reduced need for labor in an automated world and one begins to wonder what food will be available? What income will be available? How will banking and supply economics work as resources diminish on a person-to-person basis? What is the future of capitalism when there is no longer an opportunity to increase profit? Will underfed socialism lead to an era of war and domination?

Humans may not be wiped out by a meteor like the dinosaurs were, but humans may experience a rapid transition as the combination of profiteering, extreme weather and resource depletion come together to form a new age.

Ancient Mariner

 

Wilderness in the back yard

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Mariner and his wife maintain bird feeders during the winter months. It is often that there are 50 to 100 small sparrows, juncos, goldfinches, house wrens, woodpeckers, and cardinals, et al, sitting on the feeders, back deck and on the ground under the feeders; those in waiting cover the branches of the fruit trees. Also in attendance are several squirrels, a feral black cat, chipmunks and mice, and at twilight, a rabbit or two.

Mariner has mentioned in past posts that his yard is surrounded by back yards converted to trucking depots with 3-car garages, RVs and concrete pads large enough to land a helicopter. So mariner’s yard, while not a picturesque British garden, is a small spot of wilderness.

Having just refreshed the feeders yesterday, mariner expected the usual crowd of wildlife. But the yard was silent. The yard was still. Not a bird even in the fruit trees.

Around 10:00 AM mariner spotted the cause: a Swainson’s hawk sitting comfortably on the edge of the flower garden. It is a sheltered spot with full Sun. The hawk was cleaning itself and seemingly just passing the time. It sat there until half past Noon. It was the only creature in the yard.

As this post is written, the squirrels have returned. Still no birds.

Nature is tough.

Ancient Mariner

Take me out to the ballgame

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It’s those damned smartphones again! It seems no one has time to watch a full sporting event. Full length television of football, baseball, soccer, tennis and other major events is disappearing. Instead, viewers check out Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and Snapchat. Even the Super Bowl is at risk.

It may be hard to reconstruct for the busy young streamers but there was a time when the event, the getting together with family and friends, the actual driving, parking, ticket purchase, hot dogs and time spent cheering, booing and doing the wave was as important as the game – the entire, three-hour game! When the game was away, television was a true blessing; folks still gathered in homes, pubs and sports restaurants to watch the entire game.

This is a simple and clear example of the deep human price our culture is paying as it moves to an age born in the computer cloud.

Other acts of sports participation have disappeared. For example, most neighborhoods participated in adult softball leagues. The extracurricular activities were just as important as the games themselves. Sports used to be one of the major socialization events that mixed people together to form common ground, which fostered togetherness and acceptance of one another. Despite the rivalry and the boisterousness, common courtesy was practiced.

Time was, every neighborhood had a card club for poker, bridge and mah-jongg. The point is this: It is obvious today that serious activity in politics, business ethics, and international relations all are a bit stiff and awkward. It is difficult to behave within a sociable base of communication. Homo sapiens is a herd creature. Without a practiced herd behavior, we may as well be possums – just as long as we have our surreal smartphone.

Ancient Mariner

Report on Inflation

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Below mariner has composed fiscal details from several sources. Inflation is like riding a roller coaster where a person is rolling uphill if they are lucky and at the same time rolling downhill if a person is not lucky. Mariner remembers during the 17% inflation in the seventies that ambitious people would buy and sell their homes every six months, ending up with million dollar homes. On the downhill roll, the purchasing power of family income drops quickly in value.

֎ Consumer prices rose 7.5% over the last year, the highest since February 1982.

֎ Some of the steepest price rises in January were in energy – a 9.5% rise in the price of fuel oil and 4.2% rise in electricity costs.

֎ Prices rose for apparel (1.1%), car insurance (0.9%), and restaurant meals (0.7%).

֎ Rents continued pushing upward (0.5% for rental properties which in effect creates a floor to keep inflation from easing.

֎Prices for used cars and trucks were up 40% in January, compared to the prior year.

Wages are not keeping up. Average hourly earnings rose an impressive 5.7% over the 12 months ended in January — but that is a lot less impressive when considering that consumer prices rose 7.5%.

The effect of the Infrastructure Bill that Congress finally sent to the President for signature will represent the first raise for labor in many years – not due so much to the empathy of politicians but because of a labor shortage as the nation’s infrastructure gets a thorough overhaul. Hiding around the corner is the looming impact of climate change and global warming. The further destruction caused by climate change plus the need for even more workers, will keep inflation moving.[1]

Finally, the shortage of homes and, in particular, low income housing, will drive home purchase prices well above the inflation rate.

By no stretch is mariner a financial advisor. He is concerned, however, that individuals who have most of their savings in banks may be discouraged at the lag of interest income behind inflation. Today, a typical savings account pays .0005% in interest income. As of the writing of this post, inflation is just warming up at .07%. The S&P 500 product, mostly a bond market, may offer slightly better interest for the average investor. Definitely visit a financial advisor for advice.

– – – –

Readers should take note of a significant bill that left Congress for the President’s signature: Ending Forced Arbitration of Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment Act. One of the reasons many sexual assaults never made it to the press or courts was the practice of settling out of sight. Called ‘forced arbitration’, employees were forced to enter ‘the secret room’ where settlements were arranged out of sight, non-disclosure agreements were signed and court actions were avoided.

Ancient Mariner

[1] Browse broadcasting websites to find two or three documentaries about a disappearing Miami. Besides daily high tide flooding, venture capitalists are buying up higher elevation, cheap properties (AKA low income housing) and leaving the destitute homeless.

Memory

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Memory is a strange phenomenon. The subconscious wreaks havoc with our memories if only to justify our idiosyncrasies. We can remember a brief instant deep in our past for no reason except that, for some reason, the brain bookmarked it. Age begins to wear on memories; if it hasn’t been important for a while, the brain tosses it out. At the end the brain trashes functional memory but keeps fantasized and mindless habits.

An old codger, mariner’s brain has started tossing things; mostly names of people and nouns. It has come to the point that mariner often fails in the telling of a joke because the brain doesn’t share the key word in the punchline. Short memory is a turkey shoot. Mariner can know the word he wants to use and three seconds later it no longer exists – only to return ten minutes later.

But what is lost in the tossing is huge chunks of our lives. Mariner’s wife will say “Do you remember when we visited so-and-so in Nashville and had to take a train because the highways were closed?” To which mariner replies, “We’ve never been to Nashville. Who is so-and-so?” Who among us watches television and sees dozens of faces vaguely recognized but why and when are they familiar has been tossed?

Mariner raises this issue because of a phenomenon most have experienced. Like most of us, mariner has a collection of songs from his youthful days. A few years ago mariner compiled his favorites into a list called simply, GOAT. There are over ninety songs from every venue, era, concert, pop, classic, jitterbug, Broadway and every type of troubadour. Mariner plays GOAT every once in a while when he is preoccupied with office work or other quiet activities.

HE SINGS ALONG KNOWING EVERY WORD OF EVERY SONG, EVERY CHORD SHIFT, EVERY SYNCOPATION, EVERY STYLE AND EVERY VOICE. HE HAS ALL THE IMAGES OF THE ENTERTAINERS SINGING THE SONG.

Mariner is an idiot savant.

Ancient Mariner

The National Citizen Shut-ins

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The politicians and medical experts talk of ‘lockdown’ and ‘job disruption’ and ‘inflation/recession’ (depending on who is talking).  As a participant in these odd times, mariner feels more like a shut-in. Perhaps many who are not working at the moment, who are forced indoors not only by harsh weather but by the influence of online dependence – not having to leave the home to shop, be entertained (sort of), eliminating many opportunities to at least talk even to a McDonald’s clerk, church services, storefront shopping, movies (are they gone forever?), short trips just for the experience and restaurants.

Mariner has friends who live in isolation in their homes, who live in the existential vacuum of a retirement home, assisted living or hospice care. In this national environment, however, millions are trapped by a disruption in their lives for one reason or another; the home if they can keep it is, comparatively speaking, little more than a caveman’s home. Many of us are shut-ins.

Being a shut-in means there is a lot of idle time in a day. One may be frustrated by being trapped with children but at least there is human interaction and accountability, albeit often burdensome. As time goes by, idleness breeds dissatisfaction with one’s circumstances, eventually leading to depression and frustration. One suffers with thoughts of failure and incompetence. Eventually a bottom is reached where nothing is interesting, nothing has value, and reality slowly loses its presence.

Don’t expect the government to deal with this nor the expensive health industry. Each of us must climb out of the well on our own accord.

Mariner draws from several sources some suggestions to regain control of one’s normal ego:

Upgrade your sense of obligation to improve your environment. You don’t ordinarily scrub the toilet bowl each week but make that a conscious responsibility – and the myriad of other low-interest tasks required to manage a home.

Within your skills, repair everything and anything you have ignored under normal circumstances – repaint the living room? God forbid the overhead and inconvenience – from what?

Make a conscious effort to visit other people – family, friends, charitable events where you can help.

If you are fortunate to have an active hobby, step it up a bit and take on a challenging project.

Haven’t played your musical instrument for a while? Now is the time!

Create a family tournament with any number of games like scrabble, Life or cornhole.

Stop by a store that has potted plants for sale; create a miniature garden spot in the home.

Does the reader get the drift? Invent situations that require accountability and sustained responsibility.

These times are tough across the board. There is no aspect of normalcy that is unaffected. A self-defense strategy is necessary.

Spring is coming.

Ancient Mariner

Mariner’s Fantasy

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It is interesting that no one in the organized world knew there was a North and South America. Then suddenly, in the blink of an eye, both were discovered by a western world of Christian white people. Their new toy of land riches, etc., was taken from the natives with brutal force, genocide, property theft and a prejudice against the color of the indigenous peoples – what is called today Eskimo, Native American, Latino, brown, Mexican, Puerto Rican and South American. A prejudice that remains strong today.

So much for Christian doctrine.

Leaping forward over centuries, South America still remains a second class continent. China is dabbling in debt-sensitive trade with several South American dictatorships that are struggling but China’s motives are to control the economy and resources without regard for the national interests of these nations. Oil, reversed growing seasons and lumber, along with some important minerals, have kept South America civilized but the Northern Hemisphere remains the center of power and commerce in 2022.

The enemy of progress for both continents is racial prejudice. The embers of those violent years of discovery remain smoking today. That prejudice is still held by that same race of Christians that stole their world from them. Talk about the need for reparation!

In today’s world, the Northern Hemisphere is old and frazzled. New technology has made traditional politics irrelevant. Over the centuries the Northern Hemisphere has consumed its resources to the point that capitalist nations are socially stressed and authoritarian nations are failing except for the oligarchy.

Before it is too late, mariner’s fantasy must begin. Imagine the power of a United Continents of America. Imagine an economy that stretches from Wainwright on the Arctic Sea to Tierra del Fuego on the Drake Passage; an economy using the same currency and modern trading concepts that unify nations as partners and not as competitors.

Instead of immigration brutality at our border, pay the tickets for the brown people to go back to their country and help them establish a shared economy that will eliminate massive immigration in the first place.

Mariner fantasizes.

Ancient Mariner

China is an Enigma

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Vaguely, mariner remembers a children’s story about an ogre that was so big no matter what he did, it caused a disaster. A sneeze would wipe out several homes; a snore would have the effect of an earthquake, etc. So it is with China.

China has the national size to pursue Uighur-Muslim genocide in the southwest, nation killing in Hong Kong, worldwide espionage on the internet and bullying the South Pacific in the southeast. China’s strategy in world trade is similar to US private equity – outright ownership.

Nevertheless, China has its own interior issues just like the United States. Its population is restless; there are severe labor shortages; the political oppression of Peng Shuai (tennis) hints at unstable human rights management. So it may be interesting to get democratic boogeyman George Soros’ opinion on China:

— SOROS BETS ON XI’S UNRAVELING: Billionaire investor and philanthropist GEORGE SOROS said in a speech Monday at the Hoover Institution that Chinese Xi is threatened by internal dissent. Soros said that’s fueled by financial system stresses, demographic challenges and the mounting social and economic costs of Xi’s “zero-Covid strategy.” “Xi Jinping has many enemies … [and] there is a fight brewing within the CCP,” Soros said.

Still, a hiccup in China is similar to an eruption of the Tonga volcano.

The reason that China has any offense at all on the world stage is because Xi Jingpin doesn’t have a nationally elected Congress; he has an obedient, internally selected national congress.

Mariner’s perception of good or bad relations with China is that China is that storybook large ogre where anything is capable of global disruption.

A new twist is the mutual crying shoulder relationship between Russia and China over the West – especially the United States. Both nations have identical confrontations with the West: Ukraine, Taiwan, trade balances, embargos and global leadership competition; not to mention the competition for communication dominance. What should concern the west is the lack of government elasticity in authoritarian nations. Like bullies, tension has a break point driven by just a very few individuals, e.g., Donald. Subtlety is not available; fair is not a win.

Ancient Mariner

Unsettling Times

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Mariner has nagged about the decline of government, economics and society for 23 straight months, not counting other ideological issues and the always inadequate electorate. But in the last six months, setting Covid aside for the moment, the nation’s core stability is increasingly stressed. The U.S. is faced with fragile situations by Russia wanting Ukraine and China wanting Taiwan. Still the U.S. struggles with deepening populism and citizen violence.

There is a good chance Congress will fall to an oddly deranged republican party which will not be able to hold together a deepening distrust by the nation’s citizenry. Note the following chart from Gallup, an annual exercise reflecting citizen satisfaction:

Most of the satisfaction scores don’t represent a trend – it’s more like driving over a cliff.

Things seem not to be finding their way out of the maze yet.

Ancient Mariner