Author Archives: skipper

Behind the Headlines

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The mariner is working hard to avoid the mindless traps of television pundits, mindless presidential candidates, old-fashioned attitudes about major professions and institutions (old-fashioned meaning since 2005), and mindless bickering about cultural icons. One almost must turn off communication with the commercial information world and search the back roads to find reasoned evaluations of the real world today. What follows are a few counterpoints to the common press insights that most of us live by. Certainly, we must always remember that thoughtfulness is washed away by the race to have the most viewers, the most readers, and the most acceptable opinions.

Economy

The mariner has reviewed several respected economic journals and even a few foreign reports to determine how the US is faring economically on the world stage. It turns out the US is not doing too bad. In fact, compared to the Euro zone, the BRIC nations, and the Middle East, even Mexico, Japan, India and other trading allies, the US has grown in economic power around the world. The US has come out of the recession faster and with more growth than any other nation on the planet. This opinion does not dismiss the disparities of oligarchy, wage suppression and blatant pressure to diminish citizen rights nor does it take into account the environmental cost that grows by the year. Still, Donald is wrong. America is already great and beating other countries in the game of economics.

Middle East

All the Middle East nations comprise very much a hodgepodge of foreign policy issues. The Iran nonnuclear agreement appears to be accepted by citizen majorities in both the US and Iran. Those objecting to the deal are the US hawk conservatives and the Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran. Reports indicate that the agreement will survive resistance.

The Syria/Kurd/Turkey/Iran/Iraq/Isis/US/Russia/Shiite/Sunni/mass emigration conflict is in free fall, obviously. Russia has come into Syria to support Bashar al_Assad, which suggests Assad is weakening. Russia’s presence puts a new spin on speculation about escalation of war. The mariner suspects that Russia does not want escalation but somehow must sustain influence with Syria and indirectly, demonstrate that Russia can’t be forgotten as an influence in the region. Again, the Obama administration remains publicly silent but US intelligence is active.

The emigration into Europe is an issue all its own, acknowledging that the migrants are fleeing the aforementioned war zone. The United Nations count is 4.1 million refugees. Germany may benefit more because it took a large number that will offset aging population in Germany. Other European countries also have aging populations and aging economies. Perhaps this is the reason Europe is more willing than not to receive large numbers of Syrian immigrants. Perhaps, as well, the US should bump its number significantly since the United States also has an aging population. It should be noted that the US is the largest contributor of funds to the migrant crisis.

Proper Leadership is Lacking in US Culture

The mariner was checking out the book The Silo Effect, The Peril of Expertise and the Promise of Breaking Down Barriers by Jillian Tett (Simon and Shuster). Today on Global Public Square, Fareed Zakaria featured the same Book and Chris Hayes, MSNBC anchor, reviewed the same on his website. Great minds. . . .

The mariner is intrigued because so much of the text reflects his own career experience as a consultant who, by the nature of his assignments, was constantly battling highly territorial departments that did not want to change or share their information. Tett calls these vertical departments ‘silos.’ Tett’s point is that specialization – both of organizations and personal ambition – prevents innovation, creativity, and intelligent interpretation of reality. Historically, these open-minded attributes are the edge that made the United States a premier nation among nations. (Reference mariner’s posts about the demise of liberal arts education.)

Tett cites a number of institutions that deliberately reorganized to improve corporate functionality, customer service, innovation, and efficiency. Tett is a PhD anthropologist; her explanations tend toward behavioral modification rather than the management modification prominent in Deming, Drucker, and others popular in the 60’s and 70’s. An example at the Cleveland Clinic is not only to reorganize medical departments but also to renovate the building so that meeting spaces, casual spaces, and medical processes draw mixed teams and managers into an open space concept. Tett uses SONY as an example of death by specialization; the company was tightly organized and highly specialized at the worker level. SONY lost its top-of-the-heap position selling SONY Walkman music devices – failing to read new market pressures. In the meantime, Steve Jobs stepped in with the IPod. SONY hasn’t been at the top since.

Politics, Religion and Economics

Thinking about Jillian Tett’s book and its emphasis on creative problem solving, and the desire to integrate values to better predict future reality, turns the mariner’s mind to the battles of church and state, conservative right versus progressive left, oligarchy versus democracy, etc. All these issues and many more are bound by their belief systems. One cannot share absolute principles – only defend them. One cannot merge polarized attitudes – only seek to destroy opposites. Today, suffering our dysfunctional governments, our religious institutions that long ago forgot Christian principles, and our descent into greed, we are at a huge intersection in the nation’s history. An open question: How can we introduce innovation into an age of specialization?

Ancient Mariner

2016 – An Historically Laden Moment

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Chicken Little is at it again. There is chaos about and the sky will do something. A life changing vote is coming in 2016. You guessed it; the mariner tried to watch the republican debate. He purposefully assumed a conservative mindset so he could understand the points that will be made on planned parenthood, declaring war, cutting taxes on the superwealthy, dismantling any and all social programs, and shutting down the EPA and any other inconvenience to corporate profit.

He was not successful. An hour and fifteen minutes into the debate, he turned off the TV. As the mariner has said in the past, there is no debate – only politicians trying to get as many stock phrases as possible in their allotted time and, of course, never answering any question put to them.

Remember that chaos has no rules. As a balloon approaches the point where air pressure inside bursts the balloon, predictability fails and the balloon will rupture when it pleases, how it pleases. So it is with American politics today. Something will rupture. No matter which party wins, it may be that 2016 elections, both Federal and State, will act as a needle to burst the political scene and set the nation’s course in a different direction. There is no guarantee about that; chaos will have its way.

The mariner is not concerned about the republican sideshow. The primaries (the real way we pick candidates) will sort the herd. What concerns the mariner is the state of the nation’s citizens. Every day that passes, it seems there are increasing numbers of polarized, non-thinking people on both sides. Many voters use thread worn euphemisms to guide their preferences – words like no new taxes, rebuild the military, stop immigrants, close coal burning factories, save the Arctic, etc. The mariner warns voters that there are no applicable euphemisms for 2016. What is a republican? What is a democrat? Truth be told, the cultural and international issues will impose on either party’s policies. Issues about environment, infrastructure, economy, civil rights, corporatism, and foreign relations have been brewing since the first half of the last century; today, these issues approach us like stampeding cattle. Whoever becomes President in 2016 will have a chaotic agenda facing them. We must pick our leaders carefully and with required thoughtfulness.

However, the electorate at large will not think about policy and leadership for any candidate anywhere. The mariner has been burned many, many times throughout his life, not by the candidates but by the citizens themselves. Nearly half will not participate in the election process – the true silent majority – and those who vote, conservative or liberal, will vote for the best personality, not the best leader for the times nor the candidate who will solve real problems – Donald notwithstanding (don’t we all fear Donald? Chicken Little says not). The mariner has lived in three states. In each state party regulars, a tiny number of the entire party, vote pretty much the way they’re told or they won’t be party regulars very long. Kudos to the Iowa caucus for its ability to draw a mixed bunch representing several candidates – a true debate environment. Nevertheless, candidates everywhere are selected to be on the ballot by party machinery that heavily favors incumbents. For example, voters give the 113th Congress a favorable rating under 10%. Yet, the return rate of incumbents is 98%. Someone didn’t “throw out the bums!” Voters get what they vote for.

The United States is approaching a fork in the road. The 2016 election, Federal and state, will set the country in one of two very different directions. Events forced upon us in the near future can easily become cataclysmic if our government is not up to measure.

Ancient Mariner

Marriage

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Marriage. A cause for war or peace, a furtherance of power, an icon for the act of proliferation, a guarantee of lineage and wealth, something nice if it is affordable, a device of psychological need, a hobby – perhaps an act of genuine love.

Marriage is much in the news recently with an abundant set of examples that suggest marriage has its own niche aside from church versus state bickering. The mariner read an extensive book review of The Marriage Book, Centuries of Advice, Inspiration and Cautionary Tales from Adam and Eve to Zoloft, edited by Grunwald and Adler, published by Simon and Shuster. The Marriage Book is a deep collection of marriage history, photographs, charming and entertaining examples of marriage by famous couples in history, and some serious thoughts that marriage as an institution is becoming class centric.

There is no need for the mariner to recite the details of several marriages in current events, he will just name the keyword; the reader will remember. There is a set of Monarchy weddings: Andrew, Charles, William (Great Britain), Madeline (Sweden), Philippe, Laurent, Armedeo (Belgium), Frederik (Denmark), Sophia (Greece)……

There is a set of Hollywood marriages. No, there is a superset of Hollywood marriages, second marriages, third marriages, etc. There are even remarriages.

There are notable marriages in families like Clinton, Kennedy, Nixon, Eisenhower and too many iconic wealthy marriages to note.

There are religious marriages. Roman Catholic, Fundamentalist Protestant, Baptist, generic Protestant, Jewish, Muslim Sunni, Muslim Shiite, Greek Orthodox, Latter Day Saints, Hindu, Buddhist, atheist, and Scientology.

There are nationality weddings. Polish, Israeli, Greek, Italian, Icelandic, Sudanese, American courthouse…..

There are shotgun marriages, good idea when drunk marriages, underwater marriages, skydiving marriages, “The baby is two years old; should we consider marriage” marriages…..

There are minority marriages: interfaith, interracial, homosexual, international and underage.

Finally, there are non-marriages. Statistically, the number is far larger for African American women and senior citizens. Next in line are young people under the age of 27.

Increasingly, there is no marriage. This is the point of discussion. In the United States, the median age at which women marry is now 27, the highest it’s been in a century. The same trend exists in Europe. That’s according to a new report by Bowling Green State University’s Julissa Cruz, published by the National Center for Family and Marriage Research. Not only are marriages occurring later, marriages are occurring less frequently. Note the table below.

 

Year Marriages Population Rate per 1,000 total population
2012 2,131,000 313,914,040 6.8
2011 2,118,000 311,591,917 6.8
2010 2,096,000 308,745,538 6.8
2009 2,080,000 306,771,529 6.8
2008 2,157,000 304,093,966 7.1
2007 2,197,000 301,231,207 7.3
20061 2,193,000 294,077,247 7.5
2005 2,249,000 295,516,599 7.6
2004 2,279,000 292,805,298 7.8
2003 2,245,000 290,107,933 7.7
2002 2,290,000 287,625,193 8.0
2001 2,326,000 284,968,955 8.2
2000 2,315,000 281,421,906 8.2

Despite an increase of 32.5 million in population, there were 184 thousand fewer marriages. Generally speaking, upper classes are marrying late, while poorer women are deciding that they’re better off single.

Consider the following:

The decrease in the divorce rate reflects later marriages more than anything else. However, the later average age of marriage rising to the late twenties and thirties is more controversial. Economists note that the increase in the age of marriage and falling divorce statistics are only a small part of the phenomenon. Economists say these statistics reflect the increasing tendency of the well-off to marry similarly well-off partners; those marriages are more likely to last at any age.

Class-based behavior is the dominant factor driving the statistics. On the one hand, male and female college graduates will marry and stay married. On the other hand, marriage is disappearing from the poorest classes. Also increasingly, women across the board are marrying men who aren’t the natural fathers of their children.

The later age of marriage for college graduates is caused by a new middle class behavior: Women are investing in their own education and earning potential, which extends the age of marriage and childbearing. For men, it takes a two income family to live a middle class life. Further, men must pursue not only college and post graduate education, career success often depends on relocation, job changes and personal investment in qualifications beyond college. Once established, men, and the women who wait to marry them, are ready for a stable family life. As the economy becomes more difficult for any working adult, early marriage is inconvenient until as late as the thirties. Commonly, children aren’t born until the early forties.

Changes in the last quarter century indicate that marriage is increasingly becoming a marker of class — the delayed marriages of the middle class produce steadily lower divorce rates, very few non-marital births, and substantial resources to invest in a falling number of children. For the rest of the country, the statistics may simply confirm a greater move away from marriage altogether.

The conflict between church and state in Kentucky provides volatile news and skirmishes among advocacy groups but the larger scope of marriage as a social phenomenon is not about church and state – it is about economics and the future job market for all young adults.

[Some contribution to the above analysis is provided by June Carbone, the Edward A. Smith/Missouri Chair of Law, the Constitution and Society at the University of Missouri-Kansas City.]

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Just a side note on the series about achieving the reader’s liberal art education online: CNN often is criticized for chasing time-filling non-news instead of working harder to produce genuine news that affects everyone more directly. However, amid the Tower of Babel produced by pundits, there is one journalist who produces top-drawer information, explains more deeply the what, how and why of events, and offers opinions for those who think a bit more than others. His name is Fareed Zakaria. The mariner admits he is a fan and counts Fareed among his favorite authors. Nevertheless, Zakaria is college and graduate level in his presentations. A self taught liberal art major will have an excellent sense of current events that will lead to mysteries for the search engine. See:

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com

Watch his Sunday morning show, Global Public Square, at 10AM Eastern on CNN. Definitely worth copying to the DVR for more convenient viewing. Of importance to those tracking Presidential candidates, Fareed had an opening opinion piece on the Sunday, September 13 broadcast. If you missed it, check his blog.

Sharing Fareed’s investigative style is Frontline on PBS. This series covers larger, substantive issues in many subject areas. Many topics relate to the wellbeing of each of us in an often conflicted world. See:

http://www.pbs.org Frontline.

Finally, California passed legislation that makes physician-assisted suicide legal. California joins Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, and Vermont. Montana has legislation that protects physicians from liability when providing assistance at the patient’s request. The mariner suspects age has a lot to do with one’s opinion about euthanasia in ways that may surprise us. Replies are welcome on the mariner’s website.

Ancient Mariner

 

Weekend News

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Occasionally, weekend news shows fill empty air time with meaningful coverage. On Saturday, two pundit panels actually discussed topics using first hand information and intellectual value. The first is about Donald and whether the religious right will support him (Tony Perkins from Family Research Council is interviewed). The second, perhaps more substantive, is about the county clerk (Kim Davis) who was jailed for contempt of court. Her attorney, Matthew Staver, is interviewed.

Several video clips were run of Donald that implied he wasn’t too religious. One clip showed Donald being very uncomfortable when asked if he had ever asked God for forgiveness; Donald hemmed and hawed finally saying he doesn’t ask for forgiveness, he tries to make it right. Another clip from 1999 showed Donald clearly supporting pro-choice; today he supports pro-life. The questions posed to Tony Perkins wondered whether the religious right would support Donald.

Perkins’ answers dodged the heart of the questions. Instead, he took the position that evangelicals were so frustrated with failed politics and politicians who refuse to take action that they are attracted to anyone who demonstrates a different approach to leadership – even if the politician’s record is less than perfect. Perkins said that religious conservatives understand that a person’s heart can change over time. In the end, however, Perkins had to acknowledge that Donald’s dismal religious commitment likely will be his downfall with evangelicals voting in the primaries. The mariner felt that Tony Perkins, both a republican leader and an evangelical leader, was caught in the middle trying to defend a republican candidate and evangelical principles at the same time. Due to good interviewing, Perkins finally had to sacrifice Donald.

The refusal of Kim Davis to issue government marriage licenses to homosexuals raises conflicts on several levels. One level is the interpretation of the first Amendment as a genuine separation of church and state not to be in conflict – the position Thomas Jefferson took (see mariner’s post “Church or State?” for a review of secularism versus religious opinion). In his interview, Matthew Staver avoided this interpretation. Instead, he talked about the legal shutdown caused because Davis cannot be fired and will not quit – which is legal regardless of the contempt of court citation.

This level of argument is not broad enough to revisit the historical trends that have allowed government to perform what the church calls sacraments but which are performed by the state without religious opinion. Precedent for recognizing civil marriage was justified early in the 1800s because a couples’ relationship with the state changes due to race, different tax law, divorce settlement, child ownership, citizenship, abuse and many other legal acts managed by government. The government also manages equal rights.

Tony Perkins also was asked about this issue and took the point of view that there are many occasions where the state grants leniency through local law and regulations when there is a conflict in roles, that is, the line of separation between church and state is smudged. The mariner believes “smudging” does not resolve the oil and water relationship between religion and secularism.

The Founding Fathers knew from personal experience that there are many religions – some demanding both civil authority and religious authority, some with different definitions of God, some preferring different opinions from others about polygamy, race, etc. – but there can only be one government guaranteeing freedom for all religions to have their religious opinions and at the same time assure equal justice for all citizens. The Founding Fathers chose a government run by the people, by all the people. One nation, one set of laws, thereby bestowing liberty for all people in their opinions about religion and bestowing equal liberty for all through democracy. One person, one vote. Religious opinion does not work this way hence the separation of church and state as expressed in the Bill of Rights.

It has been a good weekend for meaningful news.

Ancient Mariner

 

Donald, Ben and Hillary

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Does the reader remember when the County Fair opened how much anticipation there was to roam the midway, ride the rides, eat the obligatory funnel cake, stroll ignorantly through the livestock barns, and gamble for a prize? Then, after four hours, it was the same old tiring experience with nothing left but to retrieve one’s car from a nightmare parking lot? That’s how the mariner feels about the 2016 election. He anticipated a fun ride with as many as twenty republican candidates and the backdrop of a failed Congress – not just for one year but for eight years! Surely, the campaign trail would be tantamount to a ride on the Tilt-A-Whirl.

Sigh. Already the mariner is willing to face the parking lot from hell. Sitting in his car – which has not moved for six months – the mariner cannot wait for the real campaign to begin in February. We have been watching the freak show for too long. This is what happens when everyone has a loaded PAC. What was the Supreme Court thinking? Money is not speech; money erodes speech. For the moment, at least, there are three anomalies on stage at the freak show: Donald, Ben and Hillary. If the reader doesn’t know who I’m talking about, you are blessed.

Donald. The mariner grows more confident by the day that Donald is similar to the asteroid that sails into the Earth’s atmosphere: A bright light flying across the sky that distracts and entertains. But it lasts only two seconds before it burns out, leaving nothing to see. Donald is popular for the same reason Ben is popular: they aren’t professional politicians. It is extremely obvious that the American electorate has no respect for professional politicians. John Boehner is now paying the price for stonewalling Obama for eight years. It is a mistake to re-elect him as Speaker of the House for the 114th Congress. Samo, samo.

 Ben. It is so bad that the republican party, AKA the “white” party, is paying attention to a black candidate. Ben is very much to the right and would be a darling of the tea party if he didn’t have rational arguments for some of his positions. Rational is not good. Ask Glenn Beck. Ben’s shtick is to have manners and let his successful career as a neurosurgeon carry him – at least he isn’t a professional politician. But alas, Ben will not make it, either. Ben is a holding place for voters. When the real race starts, Ben will fade. After all, the republican party is the “white” party.

Before we leave the republican side, keep in mind the Republican National Committee is just beginning to flex its muscle in state primaries. Note that yesterday Donald signed a pledge not to run as a third party candidate. That was a big power card for him; why did he throw it away? The RNC has started pulling strings in South Carolina: Pledge or you can’t run in the primary. Good bye, Donald. Good bye, Chris. Good bye, Scott. Good bye, at least ten more. The last mystery is whether Jeb! will be in the mix. The republican party, AKA the “white male” party, still has Carly. Good bye, Carly.

Hillary. The House Committee dragging out the Benghazi investigation has added the email issue and continues to have the job of slowing Hillary by increasing her negative numbers – not the job of reconciling Benghazi. This will not stop Hillary from being the democratic nominee but it makes the republicans feel good. The Bill and Hillary Clinton record is spotty in the first place having proved many times that winning is more important than ideology. Nevertheless, Hillary has built such a juggernaut for the nomination and beyond to the election that it will be Hillary versus the last standing republican nominee.

Sigh. The election is so far away. It’s like sitting in the parking lot for forty minutes before that car that blocks your way moves four feet….

Ancient Mariner

 

Church or State?

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The mariner thought he understood the legal and philosophical intent of the separation of church and state. However, when he reads the news of the day, confusion seems to reign over the subject and affects everything from getting married, to pro-choice or pro-life, to the rights of execution and euthanasia – not to mention many other conflicts between citizenry and the Constitution of the United States. Consequently, the mariner is confused as well.

For the benefit of the reader as well as the mariner, he will go back to the beginning. As a legal basis, the Constitution of the US, written in 1787 and the Bill of Rights, written in 1788, says exactly:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

Denis Diderot was a French philosopher, art critic, and writer. He was a prominent figure during the Enlightenment and is best known for serving as co-founder, chief editor, and contributor to the Encyclopédie. Diderot was a partisan of a strict separation of church and state, saying in 1747, “the distance between the throne and the altar can never be too great“.

In English, the exact term is an offshoot of the phrase, “wall of separation between church and state”, as written in Thomas Jefferson’s letter to the Danbury Baptist Association in 1802. In that letter, referencing the First Amendment to the United States Constitution, Jefferson writes:

Believing with you that religion is a matter which lies solely between Man & his God, that he owes account to none other for his faith or his worship, that the legitimate powers of government reach actions only, & not opinions, I contemplate with sovereign reverence that act of the whole American people which declared that their legislature should ‘make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof,’ thus building a wall of separation between Church and State.

Jefferson was describing to the Baptists that the United States Bill of Rights prevents the establishment of a national church, and in so doing, they did not have to fear government interference in their manner of worship. The Bill of Rights was one of the earliest examples in the world of complete religious freedom. [Wikipedia – church and state]

For our purposes, make note of the phrase, “…that the legitimate powers of government reach actions only, & not opinions…” meaning that the government will not interpret or reinforce religious definition and will limit government action to matters of governance. The inverse of this, applying the intent to religion, means that there is freedom for any religion to practice and believe as they choose but religious opinion will not apply to matters of governance.

On the surface, the separation appears to be clear and distinct. Why, 277 years later, is the citizenry having so much difficulty?

At this point, the reader must tolerate the mariner’s meandering. To state the conflict succinctly, the confusion is caused by secularism. Secularism excludes religious opinion. This seems to be in concert with the 1st Amendment and Jefferson’s letter. But this is simpler said than understood. If we can travel back to the time of the Mayflower landing at Plymouth Rock (1620), we would be in the midst of the Reformation (1517-1685). The established church still was the law of the land in most intra-human activities. In fact, the Pilgrims combined religious opinion and governance into one authority. The political leader also was the interpreter of the faith.

Ever so slowly, it became clear that there must be some separation so that government could govern without having to judge every opinion raised by the common folk. There had to be rules applied to situations that were stolid and did not change with every change in opinion. This slow, evolutionary process continues today. We are not finished with the separation of church and state.

The role of government, with its authority to govern without opinion, has expanded to include virtually all elements of intra-human activity. One can get married in a government agency – without opinion, mind you. But one may also be influenced by opinions of faith. The religious element takes umbrage that the government can perform the same ‘action’ as the religion but without the religious opinion.

The mariner now understands why there is conflict. For the conclusion, we must wait for the movie version – perhaps released in 2150.

Ancient Mariner

 

Reverence is not Advocacy

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Tim Pitt, City Council member in Knoxville, Iowa, recently wrote an angry article on facebook denouncing the intent of Americans United for Separation of Church and State. The atheist organization was challenging the decision of the City Council to place a memorial art piece in Young’s Park – a government sponsored park – that included a cross similar to the crosses familiar in military cemeteries.

Knoxville

In Part, Councilman Pitt wrote:

Knoxville IA

Concilman Pitt continued at length to berate the organization for its disrespect of valid and reverent feelings for fallen soldiers. There is conflict in the atheists’ case because similar crosses are in many government cemetaries around the Country – including Arlington National Cemetary. Clearly, this is headed for the court system – if the courts choose to hear the case.

Broadly speaking, the atheists are a counterpoint to those who would establish a Christian theocracy, primarily religious conservatives fighting similar battles from the opposite side of the issue. Similar conservative events are Chick-Fillet, Hobby Lobby, the clerk in Kentucky who refuses to grant marriage licenses to homosexual couples in spite of high court injunctions against the clerk, the insistance of creation history as valid history in public school books, vocal prayer in schools, etc.

The mariner believes those tangled in symbolic issues like crosses, Stars of David and even secular memorials, are distracted by irrelevant idol worship. Memorials, regardless of their shape, are simply memorials, perhaps suggestive of a legitimate association with religious reverence but certainly not a tool of proselytizing and, as Tim Pitt contends, not representative of a state church.

It is insane to separate church and state with a cataclysmic act like removing crosses from graves or religious icons from past sites of remembrance. Such an act would be comparable to ISIL destroying temples and historical artifacts. The rows and rows of white crosses only speak loudly of a long age of human desecration.

In 1982, a Vietnam Veterans Memorial was built in Washington, D.C. commemorating 58,272 killed in that war. There is no cross, yet the “wall” is one of the most powerful commemorations ever dedicated to soldiers killed in action. When it was built, a mother refused to believe that her son would be remembered among the tens of thousands who died. Her friends traced his name from the wall and took it to her; she clutched the drawing as if it were the American Flag at a military funeral. A simple wall as powerful as 58,272 crosses.

The point is this: The role of religion in society is changing as secular awareness grows in an age of information. There is no blame in this transition nor is there permanence in religious beliefs – else we still would worship the Gods of the Pantheon. The separation of church and state is a Constitutional requirement assuring religious freedom for all – and thereby preventing a “State Church” from existing.

It is not the crosses or Stars of David that are sacrosanct. It is the soldier buried in his time, in the way of his faith. The crosses, Stars of David and non-religious memorials are for us to remember the heavy price we asked them to pay.

Ancient Mariner

Fivethirtyeight

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Nate Silver wrote one of the best books on probability that will ever be written. The mariner reviewed it a couple of years ago paying tribute to Silver’s explanation of Baye’s Law of probability. It is a rich mixture of analysis, statistics, theory, and human nature. The book is titled, The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction. It was released as a paperback in March, 2015 and climbed to #4 on the best seller list. Silver’s original intent was to show how he had been successful as a handicapper in basketball and baseball but his methods were so pure and correct that he had no choice but to apply his skills to other fields – such as politics. Nate has astounded the world with the accuracy of his predictions. It is with that promotion that the mariner recommends using Nate Silver’s website as a key source of opinion and insight during the 2016 campaigns. His home website, where many articles and projections are available is:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/

An article on Donald Trump’s chances is at:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

Please add 538 to your favorites list. It is one thing to interpret the rhetoric of the politicians, another to suffer the TV pundits, and another to see the elections from your foxhole in the midst of it all. Instead, do a reality check with Nate’s website every once in a while. The information is current and has a freshness and accuracy about it that the reader will find nowhere else.

While poking around in 538’s many branches, the mariner came upon some statistics that just about lock Hillary as the democratic nominee (see:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/#endorsements )

Some of the older readers may have just a slight memory of the old precinct days when precinct captains had the important job of assuring that voter turnout was in favor of one candidate or another. Rolling up the precinct votes to local, county and state accumulations determined who would go to the party convention or, during the actual election, who may win (remember Joe Kennedy and the Chicago vote?).

These delegates were bound to their candidate for the first round of voting. If no one had a majority, then everyone got out their cigars and went in the back room. The nominee clearly was picked at the convention. After some long meetings, the mariner remembers delegations saying, “Mr. Chairman, the great State of so-and-so switches their votes to Candidate X, the next President of the United States!”

No doubt, the deal making in that smoke-filled backroom was closer to a cattle auction than a debate for the best candidate. Eventually, political parties were forced to yield authority to the primary system we have today.

A study was done in 2008 regarding candidates who were successful in past Presidential elections. It turns out there still is an “invisible primary” that has more influence than the primaries of the fifty states. If the reader thinks back to the last convention during the 2012 campaign, they may remember a few comments about Governors and Senators playing important roles because each of these elected “super delegates” had a vote politically comparable to a State delegation. This collection of super delegates acts very much like the Federal electoral college is intended: If there is a populist surge for a questionable candidate, the super delegates can directly influence the final outcome. The elected politicians and party leaders constitute the invisible primary.

A comparison of democratic candidates shows Hillary historically ahead in the invisible primary:

Candidate   Representatives    Senators      Governors

1 point each        5 points each   10 points each      Total points

Hillary Clinton     105                145                      70                       320

Joe Biden               1                                             10                         11

Martin O’Malley      1                                                                             1

Bernie Sanders                                                                                     0

The citizenry has a difficult time redirecting its nation when redirection is needed. What can be said? Power yields only to greater power – something not owned by the citizenry EXCEPT AT THE BALLOT BOX. Citizens truly must be determined to have the government do their bidding.

Ancient Mariner

 

The Ancient Mariner Fears the Electorate’s Lack of Wisdom

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The mariner was sitting at a lunch counter the other day with a few of his acquaintances. It was his first encounter with avid Donald fans. These were good, loving people, active in church life, not the extremist type in any measure. The acquaintances had great disdain for the professional politician no matter the party or even some of the views about abortion, states’ rights, or immigration. More important, they were professional politicians – a species to be despised. Other republicans the mariner had conversations with on other occasions were disdainful of the whole lot, including Donald. They had a hard edge to them; heavy duty pro-gun, no abortions under any circumstance and, sadly, much in line with the Deep South’s resistance to homosexuals. These hard-edged folks were the tea party kind he understood. They carried paranoia with them like others carry a lunch box.

Carefully entering the conversation at the counter, he asked, “What is it about Donald that appeals to you?”

“He never lies,” they said. “Every other politician lies – all the time.”

The mariner didn’t pursue a response as they continued to laud Donald for being his own man, spending his own money, and again saying that, “Whatever Donald says, he never lies! He says what he means!”

When Donald says he will remove 12 million Hispanics from the US and “ship them back to Mexico,” isn’t that a lie? Can’t anyone in his audience understand he can’t do that even if he put up the money himself? The audience likes his arrogant and irreverent homiletics but can’t they see it is a lie? It is pure bullcrap. He says he will overturn the Fourteenth Amendment to prevent immigrants from coming over the border for “one day” to have an anchor baby. This is a lie, too – regardless of one’s opinion. Donald’s cadre of “expert lawyers” is a lie, too. No honest lawyer would dare go near the Fourteenth Amendment, a cultural precedent that is older than the US and traces all the way back to pre-American times in Great Britain. And the mariner suspects Donald knows it’s a lie as well – or maybe he believes he can do it. Either way, an incongruous falsehood. Sadly, his fans distrust non-whites in the first place and would rather enjoy a lie told as a truth than give Donald’s words a second thought.

When Donald says he will build a 12 billion dollar fence along the border with Mexico, it is a deliberate lie. Congress cannot possibly afford to spend that much on a fence; 12 billion is more than even Donald can spend. Adding the army and air force flies in the face of credulity. Who wants a war with Mexico?

The mariner has offered a taste of the truth as told by a careless fabricator. Yet Donald sits firmly at the top of polls in popularity. He is there because a homophobic, xenophobic, and racist vein runs through American culture. How many are out there? The mariner fears there are enough to derail a truly historical moment in US history that will position us to survive a while longer.

Ancient Mariner

 

More about Liberal Arts

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There were a number of responses to the previous posts about a liberal education, including face-to-face conversations. Most were about the disappearance of the liberal arts curriculum in small colleges. For readers who want to delve a bit more deeply, the mariner iterates reference to Fareed Zakaria’s book, In Defense of a Liberal Education, W.W. Norton, 2015, ISBN 978-0-393-24768-8.

The mariner overlooked mathematics in his post about self taught education. There are reams of math sites, even reams about every segment of math from arithmetic to quantum mechanics. One site that may be useful rather than stressful is:

https://www.khanacademy.org/ This website was created by Salman Khan in 2006; it covers a great deal more than math. Khan has developed a psychology for learning that is popular and quite helpful to those struggling to learn on their own. See the following website for a review: http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/top_right/2011/08/salman_khan_founder_of_khan_academy.html

Now to the subject of this post.

If one marries a librarian, especially one who remains a bibliophile in this age of gadgets, not only is there a loving relationship but a door into the vast universe of printed knowledge. The mariner has been fortunate in his selection of a spouse who is an anthropomorphic version of liberal arts. Oh – and a wonderful wife! She told the mariner about a blog she reads every Friday. Sadly, the author is dying of cancer. In the final post, the author bids farewell using the phrase, “So long. Thanks for all the fish.”

The mariner may well count on one finger the number of readers who know the context of this phrase. In the context of the author’s final post, it is quite poignant and gives the reader a meaningful moment of reflection.

The phrase comes from a science fiction book titled Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams. In the story, humans are the third most intelligent species; the second most intelligent are monkeys and the most intelligent are dolphins. The Earth is in trouble and will be uninhabitable in a short time. The dolphins know this and consistently try to warn the humans that they must leave Earth. The humans never leave because they can’t understand the dolphins. Finally, the Earth has reached its last day. All the dolphins in the world rise out of the oceans and fly up into the sky, leaving Earth for the last time. As they leave, they say, “So long. Thanks for all the fish.”

The mariner includes this moment of unfortunate passing and the use of the phrase to point out how important it is to read and learn for one’s entire life. The mariner doesn’t think everyone should know about the dolphins – no one can read everything. Still, a meaningful exchange between author and reader will be missed when the original context is unknown. When similar moments arise with readers of the mariner’s blog, the reader should realize that something occurred that was unknown or not understood. As soon as possible, the reader should repair that unknown item. There is nothing in the entire world better than your search engine. Because of computerization, information has exploded in volume; access is the new king. Despite the ease with which we can acquire information, we are not compelled to do so. The Age of Enlightenment has long passed. It is the Age of Information. There is little need to appear informed when anyone easily can have access to the same information. What we overlook is the insight provided by a liberal and continuous education – turning information into knowledge.

Ancient Mariner