Monthly Archives: February 2016

What is Oligarchy?

Posted on by
2

Oligarchy is a philosophical word like democracy, authoritarian, and monarchy. Philosophical words are hard to illustrate in every day, what-does-it-do terms. However, thanks to the New York Times, an article appeared in the November 29, 2015 edition that captured oligarchy as a political operation that can be compared to political behavior readers are more familiar with from news coverage, elections, and economic headlines.

It is a must read for all readers. The article illustrates how very wealthy individuals band together, using immense amounts of cash and influence to interrupt what otherwise would be normal democratic elections. In the State of Illinois, backed by a group of billionaires primarily from banking and investment firms, Bruce Rauner was elected Governor.

“Unprecedented political spending helped
         elect a fresh-faced financier. But his ideological
         vision has unsettled many in the state.”

“….The richest man in Illinois does not often give speeches. But on a warm spring day two years ago, Kenneth C. Griffin, the billionaire founder of one of the world’s largest hedge funds, rose before a black-tie dinner of the Economic Club of Chicago to deliver an urgent plea to the city’s elite….

Their response came quickly. In the months since, Mr. Griffin and a small group of rich supporters — not just from Chicago, but also from New York City and Los Angeles, southern Florida and Texas — have poured tens of millions of dollars into the state, a concentration of political money without precedent in Illinois history.

….Their wealth has forcefully shifted the state’s balance of power. Last year, the families helped elect as governor Bruce Rauner, a Griffin friend and former private equity executive from the Chicago suburbs, who estimates his own fortune at more than $500 million. Now they are rallying behind Mr. Rauner’s agenda: to cut spending and overhaul the state’s pension system, impose term limits and weaken public employee unions…..”

This revealing article continues with charts, background interviews of the top 1%, and side articles expanding the subject of political influence by the extremely wealthy. As a movement, the super-wealthy are taking increasing interest in American politics. The reader – and any common citizen – will be alarmed at the brutality of their public policies on the American people.

The behavior of Oligarchy is clearly defined. Yes, a must read article. See:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/30/us/politics/illinois-campaign-money-bruce-rauner.html?ribbon-ad-idx=3&rref=politics&module=Ribbon&version=origin&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Politics&pgtype=article&_r=1

Ancient Mariner

Two Phenomena that will force Change in Our Economy

Posted on by
Reply

The mariner mentioned recently that he was investigating the rapidity of change in marketplace products. The research on this subject has uncovered a wide ranging impact on culture and economy; the mariner still researches this subject. So far, two themes prevail throughout: Replacing current products with new products at an ever increasing pace is not a substitute for growth in an economy. The second theme is more volatile – global economy in 2020 will be in a state of worldwide depression – or not. Economists’ opinions are divided by predictions of what markets may emerge.

In this post, mariner examines whether new products are a substitute for growth in the US economy.

Since the late eighties, technical age nations have been exposed to a continuous revolution of new products displacing old ones before the old ones are old or culturally displaced. The obvious leader in this phenomenon is the 4G cell phone; Apple is the prominent example with its iPhone devices. Rapid replacement has affected marketing psychology across many sectors primarily as a spinoff of the iPhone; for example, virtually every marketplace can now be reached by an APplication promoted as an upgrade in service – and cost. The question arises, is this activity progress or is it disruption?

On a larger scale, communication providers and content providers are merging to reconfigure the business model for television/Internet viewing. Further, many companies, especially technology companies, are leveraging “cloud storage” as a new source of income from the same customer base that already exists. Again, the question is asked, is this activity progress or is it disruption? Is this activity a new market or is it simply reshuffling the deck of the same market, that is, is the new “profit” really a boost to the Gross National Product?

Yes, this is boring stuff. All this “product” development is laid over a saturated market. It is comparable to raising the rent on the same house; it is a hidden inflation factor more than it is new product income. The citizenry experiences a lot of activity and feels more secure about the future because gasoline prices are down and there is more discretionary cash in the household budget. This attitude may be unwarranted.

The technology industry is on hold at the moment waiting for the next product disruption to occur. Economists sense, however, that the next wave of products will be affordable only to a smaller market of higher income folks. This may cause tech company layoffs. Matched with continuously smaller job market opportunities, less than viable oil prices, and Federal/state debt, economists fear another recession no matter who is elected President.

Add to the pile of worries the terrible condition of US infrastructure – not only light rail, bridges and roads but new distribution technology for energy grids, water, and high speed communications, speculation about a downturn cannot be ignored. The US is not out of the forest, yet. We’ll have to wait for the next President and Congress to have a chance at avoiding a downturn.

REFERENCE SECTION

The Age of Stagnation: Why Perpetual Growth is Unattainable and the Global Economy is in Peril by Das, Satyajit.

A good website to add to the reader’s regular review of business trends is:

http://www.economywatch.com/news/Recession-Signs-Growing-Employers-Cut-Jobs-Factory-Orders-Fall0205.html

Clayton M. Christianson published The Innovator’s Dilemma in 1997. Christianson is the author who penned the word “disruption.” The book deals with the manner in which new, young companies disrupt older companies by producing cheaper products that have more demand. His primary example is the laptop computer displacing the market of larger mainframe computer companies.

Ancient Mariner

Where is our Light?

Posted on by
Reply

The mariner was watching one of Joseph Campbell’s lectures on DVD last evening; it was the one about uniting with the myth beyond the physical world. He used a simple analogy that prepares one’s mind to grasp the concept:

You are in a school room at night. There are a number of light bulbs on at the ceiling. The room is bright with light. Campbell asks, “Are you a light bulb or are you the light? A light bulb is a physical thing. If one burns out, you simply replace it. What is more important is the light. Without light, there is no use for bulbs.” This analogy was his way of saying that we bulbs must be more than ourselves; we must reach beyond incandescence and become the purpose that lies beyond the physical body – the essence of why we exist.

Opening a post with this deep analogy may stop the reader from reading further. Mariner offers apologies. Every culture from the dawn of human awareness to every global, regional and tribal culture today has sought and continues to seek a transcendent relationship with a source of meaning beyond the physical world. Campbell suggests the western world has lost its myth – that our bulb glows but there is no light. This loss is the source of our vague sense of consternation and is the source of our disconnection from who we are supposed to be – not only as individuals but as part of our human society and as a part of a greater universe. We have a vague feeling of being disconnected. One may come to the point that they stop to think, “How do I know that I have fulfilled my role, my responsibility, my destiny?”

In religious context, becoming the light is the same as metamorphosis. One transcends the physical world and perceives the universality of existence. The transcendent event at the end of Jesus’ life is a supreme example of transformation – freeing consciousness from the constraints of the body. The mythology of most religions suggests this event occurs upon death although it can be represented by extreme examples of heroism and self sacrifice.

The conundrum for western civilization is to define an integrated combination of personal role and morality, societal obligation and ethic, and a value for universal existence.

Joseph Campbell said that myth and science must grow together, that both are an awareness of the mythic universe. In the western world today, what kind of bulb are we? Where is our light?

 

REFERENCE SECTION

Election Projection is a website dedicated to the 2016 campaign for President. Dozens of articles examine the campaign from every direction. The website has a full history of polls, analysis of each candidate and observations about each primary – a veritable mall for readers who want to indulge. See:

http://www.electionprojection.com/

Ancient Mariner

 

Democratic Debate in New Hampshire

Posted on by
3

The mariner is pleased with the debate between Bernie and Hillary. For the first time in any 2016 presidential debate, republican or democrat, the voter was given a clear view of the personality and talents each candidate will bring to the office of President in 2016.

The heart of each candidate, that is, their desire to deliver to the electorate what is most needed by that electorate, is identical. Both are champions of human need, economic reform, and what’s best for the forgotten majority.

For the first time, the agenda of each candidate became clear. Bernie intends to fix the systemic issues that have led to oligarchy. Banks, Corporations, tax reform, bribery and collusion in the election process, and a plan to attack gerrymandering, are at the top of Bernie’s list. By fixing the political abuses, proper legislation and discretionary funding will right themselves and deliver programs to the people. However, Bernie will be prone to compromise when it comes to program specifics.

Hillary intends to develop programs first. She will attack current legislation that defeats the spirit of discretionary funding. Hillary will prioritize human rights, expand education funding, and reduce medical costs – but not through single payer. By fixing specific programs, the Ship of State trims its sails more in line with public interest. However, Hillary will be prone to compromise when it comes to fixing the oligarchy.

If the voter is interested in the programs of government, then Hillary sounds more appealing. If the voter is interested in the policies of governance, then Bernie sounds more appealing. The mariner is reminded of one of his father’s pop psychology tools: Bernie is a why-how person while Hillary is a how-what person1. That being the case, there are far more how-what folks in the population than why-how. For no other reason than the difference between their personalities, Hillary may fare better once the primaries leave liberal states and head into the prairie.

On such subliminal attributes, political success rises and falls.

REFERENCE SECTION

1For more detail on Pop’s Psychology, see post from December 21, 2015.

The Congress has ninety days to vote for or against a fast track of the TPP trade agreement. Mariner is firmly opposed to fast track and prefers that the TPP be examined by Congress – that’s as close as citizen review is possible. Note that the majority of presidential candidates, including both democrats, are opposed to the trade agreement. For a good, clear, and easy read about the TPP, see:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/12/business/unpacking-the-trans-pacific-partnership-trade-deal.html?_r=0

President Obama is in favor of the TPP because, in his opinion, the TPP makes the United States a central player in future Asian economics, dampening the future influence of China. All well and good – but at what price to the common citizen? Corporations will have unfettered control of profits, taxes, human rights, and the future wellbeing of nine nations.

Ancient Mariner

 

The Morning Line – February 3 2016

Posted on by
2

Here’s the morning line out of Vegas:

Hillary Clinton 10/11 91%
Marco Rubio 3/1 33%
Donald Trump 7/1 14%
Bernie Sanders 8/1 12%
Ted Cruz 16/1 6%
Jeb Bush 50/1 2%
Michael Bloomberg 50/1 2%
Joe Biden 80/1 1.25%
Chris Christie 100/1 1%
John Kasich 200/1 ½%
Ben Carson 700/1 1/10 of Even less than less than 1%
Carly Fiorina 800/1 About the size of a human skin cell
Rand Paul 999/1 infinitesimal
Martin OMalley 250/1 Suspended campaign
Rick Santorum 999/1 Suspended campaign
Mike Huckabee 2000/1 Suspended campaign

Hillary held the same odds as always; interestingly, one bookie has taken bets for Hillary NOT to win the 2016 election at even odds. The biggest positive shift was in favor of Marco who jumped from 10/1 to 3/1, moving from fourth place to second. The biggest negative shift was Donald who dropped from 5/6 to 7/1 moving to third place. Ted continues to be unpopular with the betting crowd, staying in fifth place despite his win in Iowa; odds dropped from 12/1 to 16/1. Bernie held his odds but dropped one spot to fourth.

As to candidates with longer odds, most betting houses have stopped posting a morning line; the listed odds were taken from just two bookies.

 

Ancient Mariner

At the Caucus

Posted on by
Reply

About 100 folks attended the Democratic Caucus in mariner’s home town. Two attendees stood in Martin O’Malley’s corner – mariner and his wife. It was only a few moments before we were asked to move to the ‘undecided’ table because Martin did not have enough votes to meet the minimum 15% required to be a sustainable candidate.

But we weren’t undecided. No matter, we had to abandon our candidate and choose another one. The Iowa Democratic Caucus, unlike the town republicans, and for that matter, the rest of the caucuses and primaries across the nation, has the right to deny one’s vote as valid. Clearly, this winnowing procedure is designed to glean “probable” winners from others who, at the first caucus, have yet to generate sufficient interest from the voters.

The mariner respects the interaction and debate fostered by the Iowa caucus process. Further, the caucus forces big-time candidates to meet local voters face to face, eat barbecued chicken, let the voters touch them and ask questions no politician will answer directly. In too many jurisdictions around the United States, the primary process is sterile, mechanical and allows no moment for the voter to see or listen to a real-life candidate.

The mariner has concern that the very first ‘democratic’ primary in the national election process tosses out legitimate candidates any of which may become a dark horse later in the season. He especially is concerned that the democratic party has the right to coerce a voter to cancel their preferred vote and select another candidate – shades of Boss Tweed! True, one could be obstinate and refuse to change their vote but one foregoes representation in the caucus process.

Despite the romantic grandeur cast over Iowa’s unique primary process, the process is outdated. For months ahead, sophomoric news media derails any legitimate attempt to compare candidates on a level playing field. Consider the dominance of Donald on news broadcasts, gleaning more than 100 minutes of free air time compared to virtually none for any of a half-dozen legitimate politicians. Further, so much money is available to candidates that they can continue to campaign despite their irrelevance. Consider Jeb – then consider O’Malley who had to suspend his campaign with only $175,000 left in campaign funds. Yet, Jeb has spent and still has coffers that will carry him to the Convention with half the voter percentage that O’Malley has.

Seasoned attendees to the Iowa Caucus have stories to tell about the dissolution of friendships because open debate among voters is allowed and, if nothing else, one can see who chose which candidate. Even at this caucus, the mariner must patch the hard feelings of a good friend because he did not stand for the appropriate candidate.

All things considered, mariner is most troubled that one person, one vote does not prevail. What makes the Iowa democratic party any different than race discrimination in Alabama and Mississippi? They, too, prevent one from having one’s voice heard at the ballot box; those states just do it differently.

Ancient Mariner