Monthly Archives: July 2013

The Road to Future Success is not a Paved Road

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The mariner received some interest in process. How does the Country move from failing point A to successful point B?

It is neither easy nor lacking in intense emotion and includes a large majority of active citizen interference to transition to a successful future. Most of the suggestions in the post, “How to Restore a Balanced and fair Economy” are tactics that will initiate change. There is much more beyond that list.

Hegemony will be the hardest task. Think about the following brief list of disassembled hegemony in history:

•Forcing the Magna Carta to be signed by King John in 1215. It curtailed the arbitrary declarations of the monarchy with principles bound by rule of law. Not as well known is that the premise of this document was not settled until 1651. The following, copied for its brevity, is from the Wikipedia:

“The English Civil War (1642–1651) was a series of armed conflicts and political problems between Parliamentarians (Roundheads) and Royalists (Cavaliers). The first (1642–46) and second (1648–49) civil wars pitted the supporters of King Charles I against the supporters of the Long Parliament, while the third war (1649–51) saw fighting between supporters of King Charles II and supporters of the Rump Parliament. The Civil War ended with the Parliamentary victory at the Battle of Worcester on 3 September 1651.

The English Civil War led to the trial and execution of Charles I, the exile of his son, Charles II, and replacement of English monarchy with, first, the Commonwealth of England (1649–53), and then with a Protectorate (1653–59), under Oliver Cromwell‘s personal rule. The monopoly of the Church of England on Christian worship in England ended with the victors consolidating the established Protestant Ascendancy in Ireland. Constitutionally, the wars established the precedent that an English monarch cannot govern without Parliament’s consent, although this concept was legally established only with the Glorious Revolution later in the century.” (1688)

•The American Civil War, which ended slavery and demolished an intensely racist hegemony in the South. The war killed 620,000 American Citizens and a President. The resultant social segregation, still a closed hegemonic class of whites, was not outlawed until 1954 when the Warren Court ended segregation. The final settlement, at least legally, was the Civil Rights Act of 1964 – 100 years after the Civil War.

•The New Deal (1933-1936) was a series of Presidential Executive orders backed by a Democratic Congress. The New Deal was caused as a response to the Great Depression where as many as 25 percent of working men were jobless (women were not a significant part of the workforce until the Second World War; given today’s heterosexual workforce, that statistic may be equivalent to 50 percent today). Republicans fought against the New Deal then and still do to this very day. The battle over the New Deal is not over even as we prepare to move into a new economy.

One of the major arguments for the Great Depression and the New Deal response is the observations that the population was under-spending while the financially better off were over-investing. Does this sound familiar today? (See the post, “Where does the money Go” with its analogy of nonexistent horses) Finally, the 1929 stock market collapse brought the economy down. That, too, sounds familiar. Remember the bank collapse of 2008?

There are many overthrows of hegemony throughout history: The French revolution, Glasnost in Poland and many more. Is it inevitable that the American citizen today must endure violence and debilitating living standards to reach future success?

Perhaps we can avoid a lot of agony if we elect a government that understands what it must do to overthrow the current hegemony.

Ancient Mariner

The Future: Failure and Promise

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The tone of many posts on the Ancient Mariner blog have been accusative, depressing and wanting for answers regarding the dilemma of the economy, culture and politics that exist today. The mariner has played the role of Grim Reaper, warning that death is near. These posts have set an accurate description of the times we live in. The recovery from the 2008 recession is not really a recovery. It is more a symptom of a far greater transition in our lives. The bank failures, simultaneously tied to high stock prices and the rapid decline in the standard of life for American people, indicates that the United States is off balance. The time to regain balance shortens daily and the big question is will the United States fail or succeed?

Failure will be to stay on course, an economy where corporations draw the last blood from employees, inventory, markets, and their own ability to exist in twenty-five years. Those who can afford it invest in the stock market; they are trying to catch the last flight out of this economic mess – similar to the last days of occupation at the end of the Vietnam War. This is why stock prices are high; there is nothing else left. In our hearts and pocketbooks, we know that to continue with today’s economic model, today’s cultural biases, and today’s political ignorance, the United States will no longer be a world power.

Where is the promise of the future? Where is a resurgence of pride, success, and a wholesome life for the common citizen?

Take a long look at the major changes in American history, both economically and culturally. A young America rode the wave of natural resources into the Industrial Age; farmers became factory workers; an emerging infrastructure foretold a mobile and distributed economy; society reorganized itself away from stiff hegemony to a growing middle class economy.

The culture changed along the way, too. New State governments forged a new national citizenry; slavery was abolished; women were allowed to vote; unions were legalized; the banks invested in the power of the working class; civil rights were enforced; segregation was banned; Social Security assured a minimal safety net; the GI Bill encouraged upward mobility and an educated population. The economy could not have grown without lifting cultural fairness for the common citizens.

It is time again. It is time to transition to a new America. We, and our government, and our corporate wealth have a choice to make. America can readjust to a lower standard of power, wealth, and cultural stagnation by becoming a service economy, recognizing that is what we already are experiencing, or we can become a nation of creators and pioneers for the rest of the world.

The nation experienced such a role during the early space program. That leadership role created hundreds of new technologies, new products, and new jobs across many industries. It is that feeling we must regain if we are to see the promise of the future. We must insist that our elected government has the same vision and that our corporations begin again to invest in educating and underwriting the middle class to be an asset to progress and profit.

There is resistance to this transition, just as hegemony was disempowered in the past, it must be again. The Governments must turn their ear back to the citizenry (and close their pocketbooks). Ask what is the best path for the American citizen? As farmers became factory workers, the working force must be turned into a new working force – educated in new technologies, new ideas, and fully capable of creating and pioneering a new world order.

Creativity has always been the strong suit of the American culture – when it was cared for and encouraged. The middle class must be strengthened and drawn into the cutting edge of new technology, new cultural fairness, and new lifestyles.

That is the promise of the future. Will government, business, and us pull together? It is the only way to get a ticket out of this troubled time.

Ancient Mariner

 

Our Brain and Probability

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The quickest trick to play on the brain to demonstrate that a human brain does not process probability is to say, “You Gotta Play to Win.” This sets up in the brain a simple equation: If you don’t play, you won’t win and if you do play, you will win. Well, maybe not every time….

The phenomenon called probability has intrigued mariner for some time. The brain operates strictly on a cause and effect mode – information in, information out. Probability, however, does not operate that way. Probability is free to behave randomly in terms of cause and effect expectations.

As a warm up for this post, visit my favorite university at

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/applied-math/cryptography/random-algorithms-probability/v/bayes-theorem-visualized

The weatherman says there is a ten percent chance of rain. To take the statement literally as a cause and effect event, everyone will receive ten percent of all the rain today. Alternatively, one could deduce that the weatherman has said this many times before and it did not rain so the probability in the listener’s mind is quite different from ten percent. Bayes’ Theorem, which will be discussed later, is able to discern the difference between what is expected and what may happen.

A recent book and a Nobel Prizewinner for economics, “Thinking Fast and Slow,” by Daniel Kahneman, has an excellent chapter that discusses why the brain is so easily fooled by probability. A key concept in the book is the “anchor” effect. The first piece of information the brain receives becomes an anchor that unduly affects proper judgment as later information is added. Kahneman’s example:

“The initial price offered for a used car sets the standard for the rest of the negotiations, so that prices lower than the initial price seem more reasonable even if they are still higher than what the car is really worth.”

The anchor effect is isolated quite nicely by Nate Silver in his book, “The Signal and the Noise,” which is about identifying the correct anchor in sports betting. Silver takes the reader through many examples of mistaken anchors that did not consider the appropriate first piece of information and therefore led to gambling losses. It is in Silver’s book that he simplifies Bayes’ Theorem, which is a massive and complex set of calculations.

Silver sets up a simple set of questions:

X = prior assumption (first piece of information):

Do you think your husband cheats on you? The woman thinks

it is unlikely and says maybe 5%. X=.05

Y = a new event occurs: a strange pair of panties is discovered in the

husband’s car. Is this true evidence or an unexplained

circumstance? What are the chances it is circumstantial?

The wife thinks maybe 20%. Y=.20
Z= What are the chances it is true evidence that the husband has been cheating? The wife thinks maybe 80% Z=.80

Nate Silver sets up the following equation:

___XY____                    .01___                = .013                                                                 XY+Z (1-X)                .81 (.95)

Roughly one chance in a hundred that the husband is cheating. The equation demonstrates the power of the anchor effect. The wife had a very low value (.05) as the first piece of information. This made the later values less effective even though the panties were a strong piece of evidence.

In reality, the husband will have a lot of explaining to do because the brain does not think in terms of probabilities.

Ancient Mariner

 

Following Jesus Around

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The Gospel Matthew is written as a travelogue. The scriptures follow Jesus as he walks the roads of Israel. A reader should read the gospel in its entirety for an informal but insightful experience. What Jesus presents to the reader in the 49 parables, the Sermon on the Mount, and the greatest commandments is not the Christian religion we practice today – – not even remotely.

Jesus traveled humbly and accepted the grace of those he met to be fed and given a place for the night. This was never an issue with Jesus because he was a charismatic, caring person and drew people to him easily. It is clear that Jesus did not concern himself with income or prestige, or self-importance; it was those very things he felt were sins in the eyes of God. We are familiar with his comparison with the sparrow and the lily, saying that if God cared for these, would not God also care for us.

At one point early in his travels, Jesus is chastised by the Pharisees (ministers) for having dinner with lowly and despised individuals. Jesus responds by saying he has come to save those in need, not the self-righteous – who do not need God. Repeatedly in his travels, Jesus says two things: Love God first – even before your own family and especially before yourself. The second is that God wants us to assist the downtrodden, unfortunate, sick, and despised. He implies quite clearly at one point that one does not serve God sitting in a pew and “praying where the public can see them.”

His absolute insistence on humbleness and brotherly love runs throughout the Gospel. Another familiar instruction we all know but ignore is “Judge not lest you be judged.” Is there anyone who can honestly profess not to have prejudice, favoritism, disdain, or self-importance?

It appears obvious that his present day followers have drifted far, far from the truths of his sermons and parables. Dare we call ourselves Christian? Is there anyone among us who will put another person’s wellbeing above self indulgence, deciding rather who we are by what we earn and spend than provide for another person first? Jesus says give all your wealth away and follow him. Remember the comparison about the camel fitting through the eye of a needle?

The New Testament focus is on loving others and respecting God’s natural love for us and God’s gift of wisdom and happiness beyond measure. Read the Gospel Matthew to remember what a Christian is.

Ancient Mariner

Abortion

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The mariner can avoid it no longer. The issue has gone beyond rationality. On the one hand, the conservatives are passing truly unscientific and, if you are a woman, abusive law that invades privacy beyond all measure. On the liberal side, a human life in any phase of gestation is disposable.

The genuine believers in the sanctity of life also include the sanctity of womanhood. To unnecessarily destroy a human being is a violation of ethics related to the sanctity of life – a creation of God some would say, regardless of an abuse of a child unwanted and uncared for and likely to live an unfavorable life.

The definition of when a fetus becomes human is an arguable point and the mariner understands that. The mariner does not understand surreptitious legislation that is never debated on the floor of the legislature and, at the heart of it, does not demonstrate a concern for the humanity of a woman, a child, or anything ethical but rather something more akin to the Spanish Inquisition. It makes no sense that a woman must have a sonogram before she can pursue birth control of any kind – even a condom, which is considered guilt by intent.

It makes no sense that there are magical ways to avoid pregnancy because a rape has occurred. A rape is a crime and women should not be co-conspirators of a rape crime. Is one sin piled upon another valid? Some think that hospitals can perform a D&C (dilation and curettage) that will make things right. Yet the laws passed recently deny the hospital the authority to perform a D&C.

Clearly, there is a political war ongoing that has left ethics, religion, and sanctity of life behind. This is not good. It is mean. The mariner believes that the abortion issue truly is a personal situation protected by privacy, expediency and one’s ethical responsibility. One’s personal opinion cannot measure another person’s opinion.

Using such a sacred, sensitive and personal issue to wage war in the political environment is a sin all unto itself.

Ancient Mariner