Covid-19 accelerates government transition

Everyone struggles to imagine what the nation will look like by 2050. The nation’s culture, economy, governing, geography and community life all are up for grabs, a giant bingo hopper out of control.

At the center, the one entity capable of influencing all the above is government. In normal times, government changes its philosophies no faster than the most recalcitrant clique of its membership will allow; recently the GOP had a very conservative group break away to form the Tea Party wing of the GOP. This small group has made it difficult to make adjustments in government response to matters of the nation.

Covid-19 has invoked a national crisis of huge impact to the entire list mentioned above. Suddenly, a federal government locked in perpetual jousting came together to pass truly unique and citizen-focused legislation – an amazing phenomenon occurring within just a few weeks.

To switch analogies, government now is rolling along like a bowling ball. Change is unstoppable and many familiar pins will go flying. One is privacy. Readers know mariner is a privacy advocate but the privacy issue has exploded in articles and commentaries both online and in print.

The reason privacy is in the news is because the US and Europe are slowly adopting surveillance techniques used by China and South Korea to track the virus, those who spread it, and apply strict enforcement of violators. An example in China shown by NEWSY was about a woman who had been forced to quarantine. She had no water in her apartment and a day or two later left her apartment to get water from a nearby public spigot. When she returned, a neighborhood civilian called the woman and said she would be removed to a compound if she left her apartment again. The woman had been tagged as a continuous target with cameras focused on her building. There are two implications: her personal facial, body and historical profile are known and cameras everywhere are tied into large government databases.

In the US this raises concerns at a much more civil level. US intelligence and enforcement agencies already use similar techniques in an unofficial and unadvertised manner but as exceptions rather than blanket public policy. The excuse of the virus is giving these agencies and some private sector corporations the opportunity to at least set a precedent in the application of tracking technology. Just as believers in small government fear a big government has been let loose too much to cage again, so privacy advocates fear a similar permanent intrusion into one’s privacy.

And, if agencies can track everyone to squash the virus, they can track everyone all the time.

Ancient Mariner

 

Life with the flu

֎ No sooner than mariner mentions the joy of being a united society against Covid-19 than the gun industry rises up saying it is exempt from the virus-associated instructions to stay in, avoid public gatherings and, in some states, close retail businesses.

Who didn’t guess they claim it’s the Second Amendment that protects them?

Further, reports are emerging that the conservative rural US denies the behavior of the dense city liberals and does not enforce the national mandates; rather, the mandates have become a litmus test for whose side one is on. Mariner suggests Donald instigates this attitude. It had occurred to mariner that sooner or later big government intrusion may not be appreciated by minimalists.

As the mariner’s wife suggests, the rural folks aren’t aware of exponential progression (1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256 . . . .). That’s how Covid-19 expands.

Shake the dust, folks, shake the dust.[1]

֎ Following is a significant paragraph from The Economist (March 02):

“So Covid-19 could soon be all over poor countries. And their health care systems are in no position to cope. Many cannot deal with infectious diseases they already know, let alone a new and highly contagious one. Health spending per head in Pakistan is one two-hundredth the level in America. Uganda has more government ministers than intensive care beds … the Spanish flu wiped out 6 percent of India’s entire population.”

It’s a big world and a small one. The world has struggled to redefine cultural values around global warming. Covid-19 will be much more invasive much more rapidly and much more deadly than rising seas and changing weather. Mariner iterates the hope for unity not only in the US but around the world.

– – – –

Have news viewers noticed that major newscasts now occur not from a big studio but from the homes of newscasters? Have viewers been distracted by being nosey about what kind of home the announcers have? As the rest of the population begins to learn how to use Skype, Facetime, Zoom and other video conferencing software, one’s friends and business associates may learn about the state of the reader’s kitchen or the noisy, uncontrolled children running around or the unmade bed. “Zip your fly, Dad!”

As the public becomes associated with video conferencing and live streaming, it behooves them to prepare a small space just as a background for socializing from the home. Set the lights so the reader’s face is properly lit; have a nice chair and houseplant visible; if there is a bookcase, reorganize the book titles so that the more erudite titles show (cameras can read book titles); herd the children to soundproof quarters by exceedingly bribing them; have an upscale floor lamp handy and a faux window with a wide angle view of a plush countryside. Of course, one must dress accordingly at least from the waist up.

Ancient Mariner

[1] This is a metaphorical term mariner likes. He invented it in the post ‘Pondering the rest of the year’ posted 03/28/20: “Like a horse rises from the ground and shakes off the dust, the United States must rise and shake off the dust of the twentieth century.”

Restricted to the compound

֎ The ‘shelter in place’ has not affected mariner much. He mostly stays at home anyway. However, the garden season is fast approaching and mariner has begun to start many, well, too many projects for garden improvement; he has added organizing the basement and is adding more shelves in his workshop.

Focusing on the compound increases mariner’s awareness of small things. For example, he and his wife maintain a bird feeder outside the kitchen window. A large variety of birds, rodents, squirrels and rabbits are regular visitors. This draws predators as well. Mariner and his wife have seen a red tailed hawk swoop in to capture a small rodent, a large cat visits regularly and a fox was seen carrying a squirrel carcass.

Mariner’s town has had resident foxes the past few years which has kept the rabbit population low. Five years ago there were rabbits under every bush and rhubarb plant. One year he planted 40 perennials in a border; as they started to grow, they all disappeared in one night. In self-defense mariner now has a 117 gauge bb rifle at hand. Recently, the rabbits don’t visit very often thanks to the predators.

The other irritating creature is Japanese beetles. Mariner has advice for readers: don’t ever use beetle traps because every Japanese beetle in town will swarm to the reader’s garden. Mariner tried it once; he had to replace the little bag that comes with the trap with a 40-gallon trash bag. That bag weighed 23 pounds and mariner still had thousands of beetles in his apple trees, rosebushes, and shrubs.

֎ So much for mariner’s shut-in world. As the ‘shelter in place’ restriction and the accompanying crowd limitations spreads to significant portions of the United States, mariner is fascinated by the way social interaction changed. It’s as if the virus has forced society to do a training drill for how society will change as new concepts of economy emerge, how working from home will be a major aspect of jobs under artificial intelligence, as the retail world finally succumbs to online purchase and delivery and how active group experiences among friends, neighbors and extended families is adapting to Internet communication.

A new Skype-type product, ZOOM, is a fast rising software product. A full harmonic orchestra was able to play classical music together with ZOOM. Check it out with the reader’s search engine.

It is, however, a harrowing time. Pandemics have and will change the path of the future. Given the nation’s political conflicts, it is a good feeling to have everyone united for a common cause.

Ancient Mariner

 

The Twenty-first Century

Has the reader ever tried to walk on a railroad rail? It seems easy enough but it isn’t long before most walkers fall off. Now imagine that the rail isn’t still; it is slithering like a snake slithers through grass. Add to this unstable situation the fact that it is snowing hard along with a stiff wind. Finally, there is no choice but to walk this rail all the way to the reader’s home two miles away.

Welcome to the twenty-first century.

There have been terrible life ending moments in Planet Earth’s history. For example, around 439 million years ago, 86% of life on Earth was wiped out in an event called the Ordovician–Silurian Extinction – the first of five global extinctions. The most recent extinction, the Cretaceous-Paleogene brought on the extinction of dinosaurs. A combination of volcanic activity, asteroid impact, and climate change effectively ended 76% of life on earth 65 million years ago. As noted, there have been five such extinctions. Mariner has cited Elizabeth Kolbert’s book ‘The Sixth Extinction’ in earlier posts. Elizabeth claims that this extinction already is occurring.

She likely is correct in her assumptions: The International Union for Conservation of Nature reported more than 800 animal and plant species have gone extinct in the past five centuries. Today there are nearly 17,000 threatened with extinction.

Like snow falling on a shifting rail, add the issue of global warming. The Ordovician–Silurian Extinction had a similar situation but in reverse; the Earth grew very cold.

– – – –

What else is new for the twenty-first century? Not much of significance has been added to the world of economics since John Maynard Keynes (floating dollar) and Milton Friedman (free market) contributed early in the last century. In the twenty-first century, the world needs something new; the world economy is beginning to stumble; most economists believe there will be a worldwide recession any time now. Everything from a shifting of population age to the disappearance of earthly resources (Helium, gypsum, indium and rare earth minerals, (the last a vital ingredient in smartphones, hybrid cars, wind turbines, computers, etc.) just to name a few.

Further, it may be theories of territory are the elephant in the room of economics, that is, nations. The speed of the Internet and the power of computers have warped the timeline of economics, often running over small nations, nations without competitive economies and nations with limited natural resources.

Something else affecting world economy is the disappearance of natural conditions like unused land, fresh water and climate control due to abuses with fossil fuels and disregard for the needs of nature (estuaries, breeding grounds, etc.).

– – – –

Hmmm, what else is new for the twenty-first century? Oh yes – artificial intelligence. Can humans handle all this new stuff for the new century: extinctions, failing economy, global warming and do it all with massive changes in culture as well? There’s no choice, home is still two miles away.

Just months ago David Brooks, a political/economic pundit on PBS News Hour, wrote “The Second Mountain” which suggests that the nuclear family is a disadvantaged unit in modern times. Shall everyone revisit polygamy or return to communes? David makes a valid point that nuclear families, especially at lower income levels, do not have enough income to sustain a happy, rewarding life – whether it’s a home, salary, transportation, health or education. A simple insight: how many minimum wage earners take a vacation to a pleasurable place? Could they if there were four or five wage earners in the family?

Multiply the challenge to the nuclear family by taking away 80 percent of the jobs that support these families. This situation alone calls for a new economic theory and it isn’t capitalism, corporatism or free market.

– – – –

How about human privacy? When mariner was a young adult, he spent time at an Atlantic coast city. He learned that the city knew how many visitors were in town by the amount of waste water discharged. In other words, population was counted by how many folks were flushing toilets. At least the city didn’t know specifically that it was mariner using the toilet. Today, they know. If corporations and insurance companies have their way, they will know mariner ate too much bacon today and skipped his walk. His health insurance will cost more and he will have to pay for another automatic delivery of bacon with money he never personally controlled.

Welcome to the twenty-first century.

Ancient Mariner

 

 

Sheltered

 

It’s been a few days. Herding humans may be a lot like herding cats. Even in mariner’s household of two, the days are drawn out and have empty spots. It used to be before sheltering that in mariner’s retired family they had two or three trips to visit friends, attend meetings and other gatherings, and shop. This busyness has stopped, of course, leaving just a run to get groceries. What else has stopped is sports – all sports! What fills this empty time?

Communication must go on. Every social media site has had a notable increase in usage. So has porn, gaming, email, telephone, smartphone and picture telephone (Skype, Facetime et al). Siri and Alexa have started to complain that the signal is bad and they have to hang up for a while. Interestingly, television programs haven’t shown an uptick. Late shows and afternoon talk shows are suffering in quality even though they are doing their best with a hopeless situation. Scanning the cable guide, one realizes they have seen everything at least twice – including Roy Rogers and Ozzie and Harriet. What has increased is viewers of live streaming and On Demand options.

That leaves TrumpNews. No matter how lonely or how bored the reader may be, don’t be tempted. Check out PBS, NPR, Newsy, Politico, The Atlantic, Protocol, RealClearPolitics, Axios, Propublica and The Economist. All these websites have an ethic about the difference between gossip, news, fake news and uncontrolled political bias.

The psychology types both online and in print suggest that family members deliberately attempt to make the whole family the focus of daily activity. This is a lost motivation because most of the time parents are working, children are at school, and the smartphone has cleaved relationships into small pieces.

Everyone should put on their ‘pass it forward’ hat to find ways to help with the financial hardship that far too many citizens will suffer from job loss, cut hours and the virus itself. These genuinely are historically terrible times.

Finally, although many months late, Congress has passed a decent fiscal package to see citizens through the economic uncertainty. Congratulations.

Regarding the virus, stay in touch daily with trusted news sources.

By the way, Happy Easter . . .

Ancient Mariner

 

Religion on the Internet

When Mariner arose this morning, stumbling and half-conscious as usual, He heard his wife singing a hymn. He went to her office to see what was happening. She was live streaming a worship service and singing along with the pastor who had a good voice and was playing a guitar. The hymn’s lyrics were in a box on the side of the screen.

In this age of pandemics, the pastor was sitting on a stool in front of the sanctuary in an empty church. A viewer had all the components of a service that can be performed by one person. During the sermon, while listened to attentively, his wife also was doing her morning exercises.

Faith lives in eclectic times.

Curious about how wide the selection of streaming services was, mariner launched his search engine to discover there were thousands of services from across the rainbow of denominations. If first impressions are meaningful, mariner felt the live streaming options were far better than the television offerings which were either Roman Catholic or salvation by money.

So one must consider, as the pews empty in these days, whether there is a larger count of attendees sans apportionments, budgets and behavioral overhead. Most readers have been aware of faithful elderly who watch, indeed contribute financially, to the TV worship services. Mariner is reminded of a Jerry Lewis movie back in the 1960’s where an elderly woman bought every item that was advertised on the television. Can one achieve faith from a screen?

Mariner knows a family that attended services regularly because they liked the preacher. When the preacher moved on, he continued to be available through live streaming. The family now goes to church in their living room.

This raises a question about doctrine. While commitment to live streaming is commended, how does a viewer apply doctrine?[1] One of the core issues in today’s society is the ‘practice’ of religion – that is, put your body and your money where your mouth is, if mariner may butcher an old idiom. What makes faith important is how it shapes a believer’s behavior among peers and society at large. The old fashioned word is evangelism or mission or works, practices that are disappearing in organized religion and, perhaps, letting the Internet in.

Mariner is pulling out some Elvis gospel for inspiration.

Ancient Mariner

[1] ‘Doctrine’ is a church word that means rules, like the Constitution is for the United States. In the New Testament look for Sermon on the Mount or the many parables defining Christian doctrine.

What would Socrates say?

Mariner recently reported on the corruption of Wells Fargo Bank forcing line level employees to create false customer accounts in order to increase bank profits. Mariner knows he is an eccentric but the word profit is a synonym for selfishness, is an abuse of power, and metaphorically profit is comparable to reusable resources that are thrown away every day rather than make further use of them. Power and profit often are the same coin. To wit:

A Newsy and USA TODAY investigation reveals that former employees of one of America’s fastest-growing dental chains say they saw dentists — under pressure to hit revenue targets — repeatedly suggesting treatments patients didn’t need. Patients complained they were diagnosed with a mouthful of cavities only to later discover nothing was wrong with their teeth. Former employees said they felt uncomfortable with what they witnessed. “I have watched them drilling perfectly healthy teeth multiple times a day every day,” said dental assistant Ashley Hughes. Watch “Open Wide” on Newsy.com or stream it anytime on Roku and Fire TV.

The clearest example of a remedy for the profit disease is set by the Native American Indians (mariner has cited this example on numerous occasions). The notable person in the society was the hunter. What sustained Indian culture for thousands of years was that whatever the hunter brought home did not belong to him; it belonged to the tribe and was distributed accordingly. Not until white man appeared did ideas like profit, wealth and supply and demand become cultural terms. One of mariner’s heroes, Will Rogers, lived by the code of his Native American ancestors.

Everyone deserves to be comfortable in life and to have feelings of fiscal sustainability. However, to possess billions of dollars just to possess them is tantamount to leftover food tossed in the trash rather than redistributing it for re-purposing.

A hackneyed complaint of mariner’s is the pharmaceutical industry. CEOs take home an average of $26 million as an annual salary. Meanwhile, the ‘tribe’ has lives ruined – if not ended – to sustain a corporate profit based on what the marketplace will tolerate. Mariner speculates that no person can make meaningful use of profits beyond what it takes to live quite comfortably; excess profits are an abuse of power and a rejection of tribal responsibility.

When FDR was confronted with the great depression, he changed tax laws to limit income to $33,000 annually[1]. If anyone earned more, that amount was sent to the government as tax due. The principle was that the government needed every dollar it could muster to sustain the nation. In perspective, today virtually every major corporation hides billions of dollars in profit – and the privileged class does as well. These dormant assets are not in use; they are in a cash attic. True, these assets can be used to hoard additional cash through investment and that profit, too, is put in the attic.

It was Socrates who questioned whether wealth was a good thing. He also pondered what was good for the human condition, which he felt was a preeminent concept to understand if humanity was to be happy. Today’s societies, if not at war or destitute, are too busy becoming rich or richer to notice that more and more humans are not happy and cannot sustain themselves financially.

Socrates wasn’t sure about democracy, either. He believed that the ultimate power in life was knowledge – even to the point of denouncing trial by one’s peers. He saw in the democratic method an easy boat to sink because voting was not controlled by knowledge but by the myriad vices of the population.

We need Socrates today. In what direction is wisdom? In what direction is happiness? Donald is a classic antagonist for the US: he can’t read, lead, believe valid truths, or have compassion. Only wealth calls his name.

Beyond Donald, humanity around the planet watches an entire civilization crumble. Is the Coronavirus one of the four horsemen along with artificial intelligence, rampant capitalism and cannibalism of the human soul by big data? What kind of culture will emerge that will bring happiness to humanity? Does today’s world know what is good for the human condition? If it did, could it abide?

Ancient Mariner

[1] $656,644 today.

Sustainability

Increasingly, mariner sees the word ‘sustainability’ popping up in news releases and articles. This is a good sign. It is raising the political thought that classism, elitism, nationalism and identity politics don’t really solve the problems of today’s world.

Were it not for the presence of a global pandemic, failing international economies and global warming, the idea of sustainability may not have emerged so quickly. Thinking in the abstract, as Guru is wont to do, the world may not be able to support oligarchy much longer. The liquidity and business investment value is needed to assuage true hardship experienced by everyone else in the world.

Beyond economics, global warming and pandemics don’t recognize borders or class distinctions. The politics that must deal with these subjects requires sustainability – by everyone. Sustainability is a unification word; it means the solution is more important than individual nations, individual cultures, corporations or individual political movements.

For several decades nations have been trying to deal with global warming by any means that will work other than sustainability (none do). The prime example is the fossil fuel industry dodging sustainability at every turn because its investment value will diminish greatly as the world population insists on moving to more sustainable energy resources.

As to pandemics, if properly funded and given direction, science will slowly make progress in dealing with pandemics from the perspective of sustainable practices, economics and politics. For example, it is not a sustainable behavior when items like face masks suffer price gouging under the not-so-sustainable concept of supply and demand.

One can hope sooner than later that war and its destructive conclusions will be seen as a solution that does not support sustainability.

Sustainability is an updated word that no longer means just surviving on a homestead; it also means surviving on a planet. Perhaps finally the United Nations may come into its own as THE organization responsible for sustainability. Goodness knows it has been trying.

Ancient Mariner

 

Trends

Gathering meaningful, real, honest information via Trump television is virtually impossible. A few news outlets, most are on the Internet, go to great lengths to report untainted news and news that is actually important; the only two television news outlets mariner can recommend are NEWSY and BBC, found on cable and Roku among several other sources.

Nevertheless, the world marches on and important trends are at stake in the coming months. Here are just a few:

֎ Roe v. Wade may be nearing the end of its influence. Justice Kennedy has retired and Justice Kavanaugh has replaced him. A significant abortion challenge will be heard by the court in a few weeks (June Medical Services v. Russo). Further, 39 senators and 168 representatives from 38 states are represented by counsel at Americans United for Life, a “life-affirming” law and policy nonprofit. They think the high court should overrule the landmark 1973 case Roe v. Wade.

֎ Global recession is imminent in 2020. The potential for a recession is the main topic at a forthcoming G20 meeting. The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) which is one of the world’s largest banking and financial services organizations has cut its global growth forecast from 2.5 to 2.3. Further, MIT says a major downturn could be only six months away. That means it could hit before the U.S. presidential election.

֎ As important as defeating Donald may be, the nation can’t begin repairing itself until the republican Senate is overturned. In the coming election, 22 republican senators must run for reelection. At the moment, the following States have republican US Senate seats open:

Tom Cotton of Arkansas

Cory Gardner of Colorado

David Perdue of Georgia

James Risch of Idaho

Joni Ernst of Iowa

Pat Roberts of Kansas

Mitch McConnell of Kentucky

Bill Cassidy of Louisiana

Susan Collins of Maine

Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi

Steve Daines of Montana

Ben Sasse of Nebraska

Thom Tillis of North Carolina

James Inhofe of Oklahoma

Lindsey Graham of South Carolina

Mike Rounds of South Dakota

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

John Cornyn of Texas

Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia

Michael Enzi of Wyoming

If the reader lives in a state on this list, that is important news to follow – almost as important as the Presidential election! Check local news outlets, communicate with party representatives.

֎ Another nation in South America joins violent rebellion along with Venezuela, Columbia and Brazil: Chile. Mariner has mentioned concern about losing South America as a grand, joint economic future for North and South America. In fact, economically the two continents could outperform China’s Belt and Road plan. However, Russia has a quasi-permanent toehold in Venezuela and China is an active Free Trade partner with Chile. While South America may not be a domestic headline, its future is linked to the future of the United States. Foreign policy with the Caribbean (even Puerto Rico) and South America has been dismal and self-serving. At the least, the US should be nice to avoid Russian nuclear weapons on the continent. Does the reader remember the Cuban missile crisis during the Kennedy administration? Well, they’re back . . . in Venezuela.

Ancient Mariner

 

 

Is the nuclear family an ideal culture?

“If you want to summarize the changes in family structure over the past century, the truest thing to say is this: We’ve made life freer for individuals and more unstable for families. We’ve made life better for adults but worse for children. We’ve moved from big, interconnected, and extended families, which helped protect the most vulnerable people in society from the shocks of life, to smaller, detached nuclear families (a married couple and their children), which give the most privileged people in society room to maximize their talents and expand their options. The shift from bigger and interconnected extended families to smaller and detached nuclear families ultimately led to a familial system that liberates the rich and ravages the working-class and the poor.” [Excerpt from David Brooks article, The Atlantic Magazine, March 2020]

When mariner worked in Taiwan he noticed that a large number of businesses were run by families. In fact, the government encouraged single tier businesses – the opposite of American mergers and vertical expansion. It was not an issue when a cousin or other relative was accepted into the family business.

The common class in Taiwan at the time did not present to mariner a class that had extra cash. Owning an automobile was exceptional; with very few exceptions, restaurants were simple storefronts with a few tables put on the sidewalk each day; the buildings themselves were minimal, hardly more than a car garage. Major shopping areas crowded under large, open-sided roofs. Mariner once shopped for houseplants from an older couple set up under a larger building’s Sun canopy; their merchandise was very nice specimens that numbered less than two dozen pots.

Having read David Brooks’ article, mariner has a new insight why the culture, the neighborhoods, the businesses appeared almost cash starved. In hindsight, the culture seemed stable, even content; large families were often seen crowding the narrow residential side streets in Tainan, one of Taiwan’s larger cities. The payoff to Taiwan families was that a family business was able to support three generations, often laterally across family branches. Mariner doesn’t remember seeing any nursing homes or retirement homes. The family provided these services.

Interestingly, Taiwan at the time had the seventh largest investment holdings among the world’s nations. These investments, at the root, were the savings of the family businesses. Insurance was too expensive; flamboyant entertainment (for citizens) was too expensive. The happiness of life existed within the large families.

David points to virtually the same cultural picture in the United States in the early 1800s. 75 percent of work was on farms; it took large families to run a small farm efficiently. In both situations, Taiwan and the US in 1800, cash was not a central device for local commerce; it was labor, trade and self-sustained security against life’s surprises.

The history of the US moving forward from 1800 is one of increasing cash as a way to leverage relatively expensive needs in the marketplace. Vertical corporate models easily monopolize cash flow over large segments of life. Large corporations capture more and more control of public life requiring more and more cash to be available for a small family to guarantee functions like schooling, health and retirement. In the US culture, trading for services is virtually unheard of.

Is the nuclear family, locked into a cash for services economy, beneficial?

Ancient Mariner