Monthly Archives: June 2021

Another Road Metaphor

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The authoritarian revolt of the belligerent right still deserves our attention and requires some serious effort to contain the movement. Whether the electorate understands that movement’s threat to the constitutional government known as the United States of America will be shown in the results of the 2022 election. Aggressive authoritarian behavior is a failed consequence of many different economic and cultural changes.

While we keep one eye on the fires started in the last century we must keep the other eye on the road to the future. Another form of authoritarianism is corporatism. If we don’t manage the road properly, the division between the few wealthy and the many poor will become wider and more adverse, perhaps even superseding the role of government – which many claim is already happening. Many of the business regulations and institutions that were created in the last century are virtually irrelevant in this new world of computers and instant communication. The entire perspective about antitrust must be reconstructed. Further, one nation can no longer control an international corporation. It will require a new set of international laws.

Riding the road into the future already is heavy laden with issues. One issue that should be left on the curb is racism. Many millennials and most Zs don’t have this issue. Older folk should just be done with racism and move on – there’s not enough energy for all the issues let alone worrying about skin color.

This is made more complex by domestic police departments which have been trained in abusive racism for generations. Decommissioning a militarized police force will be difficult. It must be done or a significant portion of our society will be stunted as we ride the road into the future.

Just as old or older than everything else is the concept of taxation. Mariner’s old saw about the plains indians whose hunters shared their hunting success with the tribe doesn’t exist in American capitalism. As a consequence the billionaires who hunt money sit on untold trillions of dollars that, from a societal point of view, simply gather dust. Taxation – especially in times when labor jobs are disappearing – should redistribute a significant amount of the hoarded wealth to help pave the road into the future.

So, let’s hop on our hover boards and get moving down the road. Uncross your eyes; it was a bad metaphor.

Ancient Mariner

A New Sport for These Times

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Does the reader remember the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)? Twelve nations, primarily along the Pacific Ocean, negotiated a trade agreement. The nations were:

United States • Singapore • Brunei • New Zealand • Chile • Australia • Peru • Vietnam • Malaysia • Mexico • Canada • Japan

The TPP was based on a unique concept that each member nation was assured a commensurate share of income based on the Gross Domestic Product of the partnership. Earlier trade, tax and tariff arrangements were modified to accommodate this unique idea of international partnership instead of international balance of trade.

There were progressive economic concepts in the agreement but there were many loopholes that benefited corporate interests above national interests.[1] While the language touted liberal issues like environment, labor rights and humanist politics, there were just as many backdoor caveats that would permit corporate participants to ignore the ‘nice’ language. A good description of the new trade relationship was that nations were investors in the partnership, not traders.

For the United States, this was all for naught when Congress dragged its feet and Donald officially withdrew in 2017. Nevertheless, the new partnership was signed by the remaining eleven nations in 2018 and became the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.

A characteristic of these agreements is that while there are direct economic benefits for being part of a team instead of constantly manipulating trade and tariff, it is more difficult to shift national politics or apply sanctions to other members of the partnership. Unlike today’s supply and demand free-for-all, being part of a supply partnership introduces permanence to international economics – meaning that whichever partnership has the most important partners, the more likely that partnership will dominate the global economy.

Another aspect is that a partnership needs one partner that is large enough to sustain the overall economy for all the nations in the agreement. There are only three nations that can fill this role: China, the United States and possibly India. The economic ballast needed for a successful partnership requires one partner that has global dominance in GDP, population and land mass. Corporations already know this and have constructed supply chains that depend on one massive corporation to sustain the chain. Amazon, Walmart and Google are examples.

Now that the reader has suffered through the rules for the sport for these times, the sport is which of the three anchor nations (China, US and India) can build partnerships with the most nations, the best nations and the nations with the best natural resources in the shortest amount of time? The winner will dominate the global economy for a long time.

The game already is in play:

China understands the concept; in 2013 China started its Belt and Road project using infrastructure as an international connection between 70 nations and intends to dominate politically and militarily as well as economically. The US along with the G7 nations belatedly introduced its own Belt and Road plan; Joe Biden hopes the plan, known as the Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative, will provide a transparent infrastructure partnership to help narrow the $40 trillion needed by developing nations by 2035.

Ancient Mariner

 

[1] To keep this post from becoming a book, if the reader has further interest just type TPP in your search engine – much has been written pro and con.

Watching the social tide

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Mariner has mentioned a time or two that, as we all are well aware, these are changing times, perhaps greater than any war that bookends changes in power or any historical unrest that transforms a social age, perhaps any technological transition since the first wheat was cast on open ground 11,000 years ago.

As we sit in the trenches with the storm of change exploding above us, around us and within us, it is hard to see the horizon; it is hard to know if the storm is passing; it is impossible to feel secure or happy in the maelstrom.

But the storm is moving. The seas are changing. Even as largely dysfunctional U.S. governments struggle with the traditions of the last century versus the unknown icons that are emerging in this century, still there are signs of change. The tide indeed is turning.

A visible measure is the transition of global economic theory already moving from nationally based trade and tariff to internationally aligned supply chains, notable corporate examples are large data firms like Amazon, Apple and Google and, unadvertised, military relationships; last century’s wars of occupation are failing as several technologies render borders irrelevant.

The relationship of jobs to wages is changing. The advances in data technology and automation just since the start of this century have disrupted the centuries old tradition of work for pay. As recently as the last presidential election, one candidate advocated a government-supplied stipend that was not associated with jobs. While upgrades in infrastructure, responses to global warming and new work derived from supply chain development will sustain ‘work for pay’, it is inevitable that working class jobs will diminish due to automation and computer intelligence; for example, 1.7 million long haul truck drivers will not be needed in a decade or two. This struggle between the giant philosophies of capitalism and socialism will not transition quickly but the tide will force continuous reexamination of the relationship.

On the same day that this post is written, the news reports cover a large condominium that has collapsed in Miami Beach, Florida. Miami Beach sits on a barrier island, one of many along the East Coast known as the Outer Banks. The geologic history of base sediments in this region is limestone and unconsolidated shelly sand. Given that Miami Beach has installed state-of-the-art pumps in its drainage system since 2014, that sea water has contaminated potable ground water and that every associated industry predicts that the city will be 1 1/2 feet under the ocean surface in 60 years, the condominium collapse is a sign of changing tides courtesy of global warming. Global warming could displace as many as 3.9 million US citizens by the end of the century; fourteen US cities could disappear.[1]

In just the last fifteen years medical science has made life-changing advances. The most significant are CRISPR, which enables genetic modification to individuals to repair or prevent virtually any disorder or tendency, and, courtesy of the response to Covid, the ability to create organic protein. Also notable is the ability to produce a molecule called NAD+ which extends cell life and slows the degradation of aging.

One change within the trench itself is an impact on socialization. Everything from dating websites to smartphones to Zoom education to online shopping to church services online and more have one thing in common: decreasing socialization. The future impact of decreasing socialization is unclear but some studies have begun tracking the effect on society in general. The nuclear family has been around long enough to know that slow cultural change can alter life significantly. What about decreased socialization in addition to nuclear families? The shelter-in from the pandemic perhaps may be basic training for future lifestyles.

Ancient mariner

 

[1] See: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-warming-flooding_n_3799019

Just the facts, Ma’am

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Mariner has a large window in his living room. It displays the street in front and a few houses across the street. Mariner has dubbed it his personal screensaver. It acts exactly like the ones on cable TV; most of the time nothing happens except an occasional car may pass – sort of like the occasional bird on the TV. There are day-long loops, too. A number of people walk their dogs, the UPS truck drives by morning and evening and the fitness walkers are timely as well. And it gets light in the morning and dark in the evening.

It is ‘Garage Sale Day’ in mariner’s town. Drive the streets and you will see dozens of lawns covered with stuff people are selling (AKA getting rid of). It’s a good excuse to clean one’s attic, closets and basement in addition to what’s in the garage. The house directly across the street has a large sale. Mariner became intrigued by the people visiting the sale.

This led mariner to thoughts about facts, validated facts and confirmed facts that news broadcasts tout. Please! Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingraham and Rush Limbaugh are not included. Mariner pretended he was a news journalist watching the sale across the street to collect information for a news broadcast. Are you ready?

4 out of 5 town residents are noticeably fat. 1 in 10 is obese. All female residents under age 40 have children less than 10 years old. The average age of a town citizen is 70. 1 out of every 2 men has tattoos. So do 1 in 6 women. 8 out of 10 vehicles are trucks or vans.

These are the validated facts, Ma’am. Sean Hannity would agree.

Ancient Mariner

 

Trends

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Folks tend to look for clues about climate change in weather patterns. It is true that climates are shifting but on a seasonal basis it is hard to measure how much is change and how much is typical variability. The global indicators, melting glaciers, ocean temperatures and melting permafrost are a more direct way to measure change. All indications are that global warming is accelerating, to wit:

The Washington Post reports that Antarctica’s Pine Island Glacier, a river of ice large enough to raise sea levels by 1.6 feet, was already among the fastest-melting glaciers in the world. Now scientists have found that the ice mass is flowing even more rapidly.

Further, Siberia is experiencing active permafrost melt on a grand scale. Some prognosticators suggest that by the end of the century Russia will make more from wheat exports than it does from oil today.

– – – –

Mariner has mentioned often that the United States is in the long, painful death throes of Reaganism. Causes are a changing world, changing environment, changing technology and new economic structures. What is trending at the moment is Republican autocracy. Will manipulation of the elections be enough to sustain the twentieth century into the twenty-first?

– – – –

Speaking of economics, a growingly obvious trend is the shrinking of Europe’s role in world economics. Europe has tended toward smaller business models; for example, Apple has a larger net value than the top 30 firms in Europe. Perhaps its history of smaller nations and many economies has led Europe to this preference but as a result, there will be only two global business leaders: China and the United States – perhaps, with luck, India. The global trend definitely is toward international, multimarket corporations who will anchor worldwide supply chains similar to Amazon.

The government role is to develop supply chain style arrangements between nations. One new example of this is an agreement by the G7 to levy a worldwide 15 percent tax on corporations to prevent corporations from avoiding taxes by moving operations to the nation with the least tax.

– – – –

Several news items have been about seafood. It seems the warming oceans have had an effect on everything from seals and whales to lobsters and commercial fishing species. From Science Magazine:

“… basically what we found all over the ocean, wherever we had data, is that the abundance of large fish, in terms of numbers and weight, were ten times higher originally than they are now. That is, that what we’re left is one-tenth of the original number and weight of large, large fish.”

Here in the United States it already has been noted several years ago that the ‘Maine’ lobster has moved on to other locations.

Ancient Mariner

Purgatory

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Is Purgatory required by God, the Holy Roman Catholic Church or the medical profession? Mariner is of an age where he no longer is a mainstay of society, economics or politics. Like millions of other citizens, he represents past accomplishments, past memories and lost faculties.

It causes mariner to ponder – Was the Roman Church right to declare that purgatory was after death? It seems that would make a situation similar to the American immigration policy at the Mexican border. Would God be that disorganized? True, the Church made a lot of money buying and selling souls – sort of like the smugglers bringing immigrants from Central America.

Another explanation is that, similar to the penances of the Church, the medical profession has declared that purgatory is before one dies, not after. The medical industry makes lots of money by extending the human lifespan but not extending the physical or mental capabilities that existed earlier and further makes it feel more like purgatory by prolonging half-cured illnesses and disabilities. Is purgatory a medical phenomenon?

What is God’s take on this? As best we can tell, God created humans as part of his Garden of Eden. Things were perfect until the snake came along. So because we consciously knew the procreation game, God had to modify some things. He changed humans and all creatures into beings that passed on. He said “Instead of living forever in the Garden of Eden, humans will exist as a three-generational creature then die.” So purgatory doesn’t seem to be in God’s plans.

It is true that Jesus offered a get-into-heaven-free deal in exchange for promoting God’s agenda but that quickly disappeared when the Church became the gardener.

All mariner knows is that he is not the human he was when he was forty. Purgatory, apparently, is a real thing; we just don’t know who to blame.

Ancient Mariner

Teaching is changing

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There are two very prominent moments when how students were taught changed dramatically. Today, a third seems to be emerging.

֎ The first moment was when the ‘University’ of Bologna was created in 1088. It was a defensive legal gesture to protect young people who were not citizens who otherwise would be charged with reparation fees. As the university became a permanent institution over the next decades, instructors were hired to teach many of the subjects that still exist in today’s curricula. Today the University of Bologna remains one of the premier universities in the world.

֎ The second moment occurred when the first grades were issued at Yale in the year 1785, when President Ezra Stiles, after examining 58 seniors, recorded in his diary that there were ‘Twenty Optimi, sixteen second Optimi, twelve Inferiores, ten Pejores.’ By the 1850’s what a student learned was defined strictly by their grades, not by what they may have actually learned in terms of usefulness and applicability. The pejorative term for learning something just to get good grades is ‘bullimic learning’ loosely interpreted as “compulsive studying usually followed by self-induced test taking”

Everyone is familiar with contemporary grading from primary to post graduate studies. Refinements include grade averaging with GPA, SAT, and even social accomplishment as a comparative. Disparities have grown reflected through race, class and prestigious selection.

֎ Today, however, things are changing. The transition has been gradual, more an effort to accommodate the psychological wellbeing of pre-schoolers; recently the new approach has seeped into primary grades. Speaking very broadly, students are taught in small groups and the group is “graded” on its accomplishments – which often are not strictly about the ABCs – and students are not individually graded.

Ironically, for many decades in the corporate world employees are made part of a team whose job is to accomplish some new goal or function. The team gets the credit while individuals benefit by being a member. The experience almost entirely is one of learning useful and applicable knowledge.

The future of higher education will use integrated, multi-subject classes, job-focused education and move beyond the two or four year model to provide lifelong learning. Successful universities must aggressively prepare their institutions to avoid further disruption.

It is likely that the line between corporate employment and college enrollment may become a continuously integrated relationship. Collaboration with unions, trade associations, libraries and other peripheral organizations is likely.

Ancient Mariner

You are supposed to go first

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No one denies the confrontational identity politics that prevails today; no one denies the emotional disruption of fifteen months in virtual isolation; no one denies the insecurity of a disappearing lifestyle that eliminates storefronts, careers and every day family security; no one denies the utter absence of a life of contentment, quiet comfort and satisfaction. How do we stop this hellish train to nowhere?

You go first. What are some tricks to escape the gravity of society today? The issue is, after all, how you feel as an individual. How everyone else feels is abstract; what makes YOU feel better and thereby improves life in these times, at least for yourself?

What follows are a few examples that seem to work at an individual level.

֎ Mariner’s wife rises early in the morning to prepare a simple but tasty breakfast. She eats this breakfast outdoors on the back deck just as the garden, birds, insects and other creatures are waking up and the Sun is rising on a new day. Human intervention doesn’t exist; there are no responsibilities, no reason to account for the human world, no thought of chores. In her backyard, at least, all’s well and peace is at hand.

This moment is more powerful and more rewarding than it reads. It arms the reader with confidence at a subconscious level. It is easy to imagine the difference between a morning coffee while watching morning television and a morning coffee in a pleasant, reassuring moment of solitude. It may take some practice to shut down the angst of facing the outside world but it is worth it.

Besides the magic of internal peace, its magic will soften your approach to others during the day and permit you to be less confrontational. Isn’t this an example of how to ‘pass it forward’ in an effort to slow that hellish train?

֎ Mariner lives in a small corner of town where ten homes are clustered in a manner that encourages collective activity. The residents of these homes have political and economic differences that are quite measurable. The political philosophies range from Trump allegiance including conspiracies to extremely progressive socialists. Careers range from retired tradesmen to nurses to master mechanics to systems consultants to truck drivers to school administrators to retired pilots.

In order to sustain civility, sharing, caring and the many other little behaviors that make neighborly life pleasant, everyone practices oppressed confrontation. Neighborly bonding with each other and maintaining an “I’m here if you need me” attitude requires a rule that no one talks about political, religious or philosophical mandates or condescending comments about other neighbors.

It is obvious that unity is more important than ideological supremacy. Isn’t this, too, one small step?

֎ A third exercise is to share, that is to share in a way that would not qualify as every day sharing. The secret is to keep the logistics simple but make a large impact on the recipient(s). Typically the recipient has a hardship of some kind; perhaps being a shut-in, or an invalid or a family suffering a recent death or a family who is in a state of economic hardship or maybe just a special occasion in the recipient’s life. It’s your turn to share some concern and relief to your acquaintances who are in need. Cash not allowed; put yourself and a few friends into it – show sharing, caring and compassion.

Like the first two suggestions, sharing is more powerful and more rewarding than it reads. The common result from all the suggestions is the creation of unity. It is unity that is the antidote to the nation’s infection of identity politics.

It’s your turn.

– – – –

On the side, Mariner and his wife were talking about this post. As is her wont, she quickly wrote a poem to reflect on sitting on the porch:

This garden would be perfect
The old man thought
As he leaned on his hoe
And scratched his ear
If it weren’t for that damned young rabbit.

This garden would be perfect
The young rabbit thought
As he munched on lettuce
And scratched his ear
If it weren’t for that damned old man.

This garden is perfect
The poet thought
As she ate breakfast on the deck and enjoyed the view
Having neither the work of maintaining it
Nor the necessity of surviving in it.

MKM 6-4-2021

Ancient Mariner

Everything is the same but different.

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Last Friday on an early, Way To Early, news show there was a piece about how manufacturers were resizing products to compensate for rising production costs rather than raising prices and lose customers. It has a term: ‘shrink-flation’. Demonstrated were toilet paper, potato chips and ice cream, which had fewer sheets, less weight and smaller capacity respectively. Shoppers have been taught to read labels for health reasons; now they must school themselves on size by learning how many grams in a quart or a pound and beware of count in artificial sugar packets; the price doesn’t change.

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Turning to a more sociological vein, everyone agrees the United States is having an identity crisis. It is difficult to know how to handle the situation. For the common citizen, it seems only to be a mish-mash of conflict and pointing fingers. The citizen truly is in the depths of the trenches and even trenches within trenches. How does a citizen gain perspective so that reasonable evaluation can be made?

Learn some facts. Mariner knows this is a tall order for the electorate but if a rational path to recovery is to be available, one must check history for similar situations. Sorry, electorate.

In place of buying textbooks, use Wikipedia to collect information – and make a donation while you’re at it. Search for information on the cause of the French Revolution, the Magna Carta, the Luddite rebellion and the rise of Nazi government (including persecution of Jews) in Germany. Clues for why there were national identity issues may involve financial security of the masses, oppression, racism, power wars and concentration of wealth.

For starters find something in these events comparable to wage freezes for forty years; find something that represents too much cash for the well-to-do; find something that erased major chunks of job availability; find something where power blocks competed too much for the good of the nation. Once historical information has been gained, how were these issues resolved?

Vote accordingly.

Ancient Mariner

From around the World

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During the pandemic citizens became accustomed to ‘free shipping’ from online and storefront retailers. Amazon, for example, touted free shipping in two days. Behind the scenes, however, Amazon had forced sellers to absorb the cost of shipping into their consumer price. This has led to antitrust investigations of Amazon Prime. In short, pervasive free shipping soon may come to an end.

It will be difficult for all three sides of this market — the customers, the drivers and the sellers themselves — to get what they want.

– – – –

China has eased birth limits to cope with aging population. Couples in China can now have three children, instead of being limited to two, after the ruling Communist Party eased birth limits Monday. It turns out China, like Japan, the United States and most wealthy and industrialized nations, has an aging population that is increasing while younger citizens are a smaller percentage of the population. The economics are familiar to the US – retired old people cost the economy a lot of money but don’t generate GDP; on the other hand as economies begin to grow in this new era, there aren’t enough workers to do the work. State media reports that leaders also agreed China needs to raise its retirement age to keep more people in the workforce.

– – – –

A report by Greenpeace Africa and the Netherlands-based organization Changing Markets urges governments to phase out processing of fish which is fit for human consumption but being used for fishmeal and oil. It says the fish extracted by industrial vessels off West Africa are processed and exported, mainly to Europe and Asia, as feed for fish farms, pet food or use in cosmetics.

The report said the industry is devastating coastal communities and undermining food security in Mauritania, Senegal, the Gambia, Mali and Burkina Faso.

– – – –

The Philippines has filed two more diplomatic protests after maritime authorities spotted a total of 165 Chinese vessels within Manila’s exclusive economic zone. The South China Sea is a troubling situation for all the countries adjacent to it. Other nations include Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei. Taiwan, of course, has a tight relationship with the United States which may lead to a military war between China and the US, and perhaps enjoin other Pacific allies like Japan, Australia and South Korea. China has made it clear they want Taiwan back.

As troublesome as these news items are, it is a bit of relief not to discuss American issues for a change.

Ancient Mariner