Analysis after the Debate

We are tracking which candidate is gaining on the other (Donald or Hillary) by scoring different elements of the election process rather than trying to guess amid the cacophony generated by media. The elements are called ‘vectors’ in that our analysis uses vector analysis – foregoing having to listen to every useless word the candidates say.

538.com (Nate Silver) – The betting odds for today are Hillary over Donald 74.4% to 25.6% – more than a trend – leaping in Hillary’s favor by 14.9%.

Electoral Vote – The latest analysis of the fifty states shows Hillary leaping ahead of Donald by 81.4 additional votes: (309.5 to 228.1 (270 to win).

Battleground States – measure is points in polls.

Arizona – Donald +2.4 trending stronger

Colorado – Hillary +3.5 trending weaker

Florida – Hillary +1.0 trending stronger

Georgia – Donald +4.6 trending stronger

Iowa – Donald +1.8 trending stronger

Michigan – Hillary +5.0 trending weaker

Missouri – Donald +7.8 trending stronger

New Hampshire – Hillary +4.3 trending weaker

Nevada – Hillary +1.0 trending stronger

North Carolina – TIED

Ohio – Donald +0.6 trending stronger

Pennsylvania – Hillary +3.9 trending weaker

Virginia – Hillary +5.7 trending stronger

Wisconsin – Hillary +4.9 steady

Down Ballot Races – The score tightened by 5 points (54.2 – 45.8) with the democrats ahead. Statistically, the democrats must win three states from the republicans: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Illinois along with a few potential swaps:

New Hampshire R to D

Indiana R to D

The Senate race probably is more important than the President’s race.

Local Paper and Magazines – reader’s choice. Perhaps readers noticed a few odd statistics: two very conservative newspapers have recommended Hillary; no CEOs in the Forbes top 100 will vote for Donald; only 2% of African Americans will vote for Donald; only 20% of Latinos will vote for Donald; the millennial generation is drifting to the libertarian and green parties or not voting at all – Hillary has not inspired them; Senator Mitch McConnell, at a meeting of republicans, asked for a show of hands from those who think Donald will win – no one raised their hands.

The mariner has the opinion that this campaign has not measured up to the issues the nation has at hand. The campaign is nothing more than two eight-year-olds trying to put the blame on anyone else. Has the electorate heard any solutions to climate change, fixing the TPP agreement, specifically restructuring taxes, redefining each discretionary funding category or Social Security or Federal mandates for minimum wage or bank regulations or….

Then there are global issues like global warming, environmental destruction, and limiting the social powers of corporatism.

Finally, an entirely new philosophy for international economies must be invented before automation and shifting population collapse our current ideals.

Sympathy notwithstanding, what does Donald’s narcissism do to help? What does Hillary’s preoccupation with children’s rights do to help? Neither candidate will bring back the golden age of industrialism; a labor-led economy is in the past. The US economy has been a service sector economy for twenty years.

Other major issues are within Government: How will all private money be removed from all elections? How will regulations be rewritten to minimize lobbyist ownership of politicians? How will gerrymandering be eliminated? The media hasn’t helped shape the dialogue – it is too easy to watch two eight-year-olds cast blame.

Oh well, only 38 days until it’s over and Hillary wins. Then what?

Ancient Mariner

One thought on “Analysis after the Debate

  1. Interesting how Mariner can be encouraging and discouraging in the same post! Western civilization may be saved, but saved for what?

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